Air cargo will continue to lead the world: Boeing
Prospects for the world's air cargo industry remain promising despite a decline in business due to the lingering effects of the world's economic slowdown, which began in late 2000.
An optimistic forecast about the air cargo industry has come from U.S. aircraft manufacturer Boeing Co., which says that growth in the industry is set to reach 6.4 percent per year over the next 20 years, a tripling of its present business.
"Asian air cargo markets will continue to lead the world in the average annual growth rate," said Kent Fisher, Boeing Commercial Airplanes vice president in the company's World Air Cargo Forecast report.
Fisher said that the air cargo industry was in a recessive state even before the Sept. 11 attack. The economic slowdown in the U.S. and a similar downturn in Europe, which began in late 2000, has had a negative impact on the air cargo business.
Boeing estimated that world air cargo traffic is expected to triple within the next 20 years, and the world freighter fleet will increase from 1,775 to 3,078 airplanes.
Meanwhile, an industry research consultant said in its latest report that worldwide airfreight would continue to show subpar growth during 2003, with growth rates in ocean freight expected to exceed airfreight for the first time in 13 years.
The Colography Group, based in Atlanta, said global vessel tonnage is expected to grow by 4.9 percent this year, matching the growth of the overall market. However, global airfreight tonnage is projected to grow by only 2 percent.
Slightly more than 62.46 trillion pounds of cargo will be shipped internationally this year. Of that, 10.98 trillion pounds will be moved via ocean, compared to 10.46 trillion pounds in 2002.
The balance, 52 trillion pounds, will be moved by air, an increase from 50.9 trillion pounds shipped by air in 2002.
The value of all goods shipped internationally in 2003 will reach US$5.9 trillion, a 4.3 percent increase from 2002 levels, the consultant forecasted. Of that total, $2.3 trillion will be moved by air, a 4.4 percent gain from 2002 levels, and $3.6 trillion will be moved by sea, a 4.3 percent increase. The study measures goods moving only in international commerce and excludes domestic services.
"The gap between vessel and air cargo tonnage growth has actually been narrowing in recent years. This underscores the impact of the global economic slowdown on air-dependent industries, such as semiconductors, electronics and telecommunications. Our 2003 projection suggests more of the same for the balance of the year," said Ted Scherck, the president of The Colography Group.
Scherck added that the secular decline in the size and weight of the average air shipment could also contribute to the slowing of air cargo tonnage growth. "Although shipping activity is projected to be sluggish, the projected growth in the value of air-shipped goods indicates that, while units are getting smaller and shipping is becoming less frequent than in the past, the goods to be moved by air are of a higher value than ever before."
Among the many findings in The Colography Group's Global Cargo Market Projections for 2003 are:
- After years of steady increases, airfreight's share of world tonnage will decline in 2003 to .47 percent compared to .48 percent in 2002.
- The value of each pound of global airfreight will rise in 2003 by 2.3 percent. By contrast, the value of each pound of global sea freight will decline by 0.7 percent.
- Of The Colography Group's nine "world areas", Eastern Europe will report the fastest growth rate at 10.2 percent in air export tonnage. Central America will be second with a projected 7.1 percent growth rate. However, Western Europe, North and South America, and Australia/Oceania will lag behind the world average of 2 percent, and Asia, with just 2.2 percent growth, will only exceed the average by a slight margin. "Eastern and Central Europe are emerging as great success stories. But the overall figures still portray an industry struggling with the impact of global recession," Scherck said.
- An estimated 48.8 percent of all global air tonnage and 50.4 percent of all air value will be shipped on an intra-regional basis in 2003, virtually unchanged from 2002 levels.
- Asia, South America and Western Europe will export more air tonnage in 2003 than they will import. Africa, the Middle East, Eastern Europe, Australia/Oceania, Central America and North America are projected to import more air tonnage than they export. North America, home to the world's leading importer, the United States, will lead all world areas in the year-over-year percentage decline of export weight relative to import weight. Copyright Air Cargo World
-- The Jakarta Post