After Mandela

Few leaders in recent history have forged a popular sainthood as durable as Nelson Mandela's. The veneration the South African president received on his trip to Britain and France early this month inspired one cartoonist to portray him walking across the English Channel. More important, two years after his election, Mandela retains the trust and support of his people. South Africa's transition has been astonishingly smooth, largely due to Mandela's commitment to democracy and reconciliation.

But his term expires in 1999, and the 78-year-old Mandela might step down sooner. His successor, undoubtedly, will be a mere mortal. What will happen then? The answer is probably nothing. South Africans are a lot calmer about the question than foreigners, who tend to believe that the success of the transition rises and falls with Mandela. In fact, the African National Congress's depth is impressive. The Cabinet and provincial governments boast many capable leaders.

Mandela has said he would like to be succeeded by Deputy President Thabo Mbeki, who is running much of the government day- to-day and met last Thursday with President (Bill) Clinton. There are credible challengers for the ANC's nomination, but it is now Mbeki's to lose. Given the Anc's tremendous popularity, so is the presidency.

The uncharismatic Mbeki is a choice designed to soothe whites and foreign governments and investors. He was influential in persuading Mandela to adopt a conservative economic plan that ties the country's economic future to outside investment. Ironically, the main threat to South African stability after Mandela leaves may arise from this decision, which emphasizes the investment climate over the needs of poor blacks.

The government's first budget shifted only 3 percent of spending toward the poor. The government promised a million houses in five years. It has built only 12,000. Poor people trust Mandela, and have been willing to wait. But it is an open question whether they will extend that trust to Mbeki, who has no grass-roots base and is seen as aloof.

Further, Mbeki has made unsavory alliances to preserve his power. He outmuscled the respected Cyril Ramaphosa to become Mandela's heir, and to do it forged an alliance with Winnie Mandela, the Anc's most dangerous demagogue. He has been blamed for the government's failure to lobby Nigeria publicly before the hanging of Ken Saro-Wiwa and eight other opposition figures last November. He is obsessed with press criticism. But this is epidemic among politicians, and he is careful to note that the Constitution guarantees freedom of the press.

Mbeki's basic commitment to democracy is not in doubt, and his missteps have been no worse than Mandela's, which do not get much attention abroad. The government's worst misstep -- still reversible -- is a clause in the new Constitution allowing parliament to alter the Bill of Rights with a two-thirds majority vote. The Constitutional Court is reviewing this clause, and will probably ask parliament to rewrite it.

The most important reason for optimism about post-Mandela South Africa, however, has nothing to do with Mbeki. It is that Mandela is preventing the emergence of a cult of personality. His government is creating real democratic institutions, respecting the independence of the Central Bank, the judiciary and the press. He is laying a solid foundation for a lasting democracy, one that does not depend on who comes next.

-- The New York Times