After election euphoria, the pitfalls awaiting Susilo

After election euphoria, the pitfalls awaiting Susilo

Harry Bhaskara, Jakarta

"Change" has been Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's campaign mantra,
which brought him into the top position using the tiny and
little-known Democratic Party as his springboard.

Coupled with his good looks and "presidential" body language,
the former general and his strategists turned that mantra into a
missile that penetrated the hearts of at least 60 millions
voters.

How could one explain this phenomenon? How did the former top
security minister eclipse his boss, the incumbent, President
Megawati Soekarnoputri? The strength of broadcast media is one
explanation, but there must be others.

Susilo was campaigning in the nation's first direct
presidential election, and for that he counted himself fortunate
-- and, with good reason. There were some advantages for him in
the new system. People were still learning the ropes, after more
regimented elections during the Soeharto years. Over time,
citizens will learn to be more critical of campaign messages, but
not now. People had a lot to learn about how to assess a
candidate through the media, especially the broadcast media.

As such, television viewers tended to buy whatever a candidate
was saying, almost like when television ads were first aired here
in the 1970s and people really fell for companies' claims.

Another reason was the general, yet debatable, perception that
the incumbent put in a marginal performance during her three-year
rule. Thus, though this may sound contradictory, the most
determining factor was the public's vague knowledge of the
candidates themselves. In hindsight, this may have given rise to
the possible elimination of a better candidate in the first
round.

Of great benefit to Susilo was the opaque way in which
politics were conducted under the 32-year rule of autocrat
Soeharto. From 1967 to 1998, the true qualities of major
political leaders were kept in the shadows. As in any
authoritarian system, the more unpalatable a leader's qualities
were, the more difficult it was to dig up the dirt on them.
Soeharto himself would serve as a good example. The extent of his
family's shoddy business deals surfaced years later. People did
not talk, only whispered.

Today, politics is certainly more open, but there are still
things that are whispered of and never really discussed. The
legacy of long years of political opaqueness was reflected in the
absence of an open political debate in the presidential election.
The televised debates were reduced to mere dialogs.

In the absence of opportunities for voters to learn more about
the candidates, Susilo needed only to capitalize on his
television appearances. It was clear that the reticent Megawati
trailed behind Susilo in television appearances.

Certainly, television appearances were not the only reason why
Susilo was voted in, but the image created by the media was
powerful enough to linger in voters' minds.

Conspicuously missing was a thorough analysis of the
candidates' backgrounds through this media -- a must in any
democratic country. A limitation that may be a pitfall for the
people, as they will only become acquainted with the real Susilo
once he is in office.

Like politicians anywhere, Susilo has been good at making
promises. So much so, that at times he gave the impression that
he was capable of remedying all ills that plague this nation.

But he is dealing with people who have been let down many
times in recent history. First, after Soeharto's fall in 1998,
followed by Habibie's in 1999 and Abdurrahman Wahid's in 2001.
Will the people be disappointed again after Megawati's
government? People's expectations for change have never been so
high.

Not letting down those who picked him as their leader, will,
therefore, be a pitfall that Susilo must be aware of. As change
is Susilo's mantra, what changes have been envisaged by the
people? Or, what did not change under Megawati Soekarnoputri that
deterred the voters from her?

Pervasive corruption is one thing that did not change. No big
cats have been brought to court, so far. Other chronic illnesses
also abound. They range from slack security to poor governance,
separatism, slim job opportunities, restive workers, weak laws,
corrupt courts, religious militancy, weak economic growth to
tension between central and regional governments.

To pick one issue is taxing enough. Some 40 million people are
jobless -- or about half the entire workforce. The economy has to
grow by 13 percent in 2005 to accommodate it annual new workforce
of 2.5 million.
The fuel subsidy that has risen from Rp 14 trillion to Rp 63
trillion will soon absorb his attention. Will he rise fuel prices
in November, when the current subsidy -- cut to Rp 59 trillion by
the House of Representatives last week -- runs out?

On the political front, problems are no less intimidating.
When presidential candidates were asked to sign a pledge to
accept victory or defeat before the election season kicked off,
it was done with a purpose. Defeat is largely seen as a disgrace.
Politicians' fondness for (balas dendam) (revenge) once they are
defeated is an open secret. This is obvious throughout Indonesian
history. One example is the 1965 political earthquake, when
millions of people -- communists or suspected communists -- were
killed.

Susilo should be prepared for this possibility. An early sign
in recent days has been Megawati's seeming reluctance to meet
with Susilo, although the latter requested it.

Calls for politicians to bury the hatchet for the betterment
of the nation may be plentiful -- but, even so, it is likely that
beaten politicians will come back with a vengeance. The root of
the problem may lie in traditional political behavior, whereby,
in Indonesia's past, kingdoms fought against one another.

Given the enormous challenges that face Susilo, it would be
hard to argue against the notion that people are in for another
disappointment. Hence, it is important that expectations are not
all-consuming. And, one of Susilo's challenges will lie in how to
manage the people's expectations.

It is tempting to ask, therefore, why one would want to be a
president at this point in time? But, there is no turning back
for Susilo. If only he can hold the people together when the
going gets tough, he will have made it. A quick fix is out,
perseverance is in.

Harry Bhaskara is a staff writer at The Jakarta Post. He can
be reached at harrybhaskara@yahoo.com.