After election euphoria, the pitfalls awaiting Susilo
Harry Bhaskara, Jakarta
"Change" has been Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's campaign mantra, which brought him into the top position using the tiny and little-known Democratic Party as his springboard.
Coupled with his good looks and "presidential" body language, the former general and his strategists turned that mantra into a missile that penetrated the hearts of at least 60 millions voters.
How could one explain this phenomenon? How did the former top security minister eclipse his boss, the incumbent, President Megawati Soekarnoputri? The strength of broadcast media is one explanation, but there must be others.
Susilo was campaigning in the nation's first direct presidential election, and for that he counted himself fortunate -- and, with good reason. There were some advantages for him in the new system. People were still learning the ropes, after more regimented elections during the Soeharto years. Over time, citizens will learn to be more critical of campaign messages, but not now. People had a lot to learn about how to assess a candidate through the media, especially the broadcast media.
As such, television viewers tended to buy whatever a candidate was saying, almost like when television ads were first aired here in the 1970s and people really fell for companies' claims.
Another reason was the general, yet debatable, perception that the incumbent put in a marginal performance during her three-year rule. Thus, though this may sound contradictory, the most determining factor was the public's vague knowledge of the candidates themselves. In hindsight, this may have given rise to the possible elimination of a better candidate in the first round.
Of great benefit to Susilo was the opaque way in which politics were conducted under the 32-year rule of autocrat Soeharto. From 1967 to 1998, the true qualities of major political leaders were kept in the shadows. As in any authoritarian system, the more unpalatable a leader's qualities were, the more difficult it was to dig up the dirt on them. Soeharto himself would serve as a good example. The extent of his family's shoddy business deals surfaced years later. People did not talk, only whispered.
Today, politics is certainly more open, but there are still things that are whispered of and never really discussed. The legacy of long years of political opaqueness was reflected in the absence of an open political debate in the presidential election. The televised debates were reduced to mere dialogs.
In the absence of opportunities for voters to learn more about the candidates, Susilo needed only to capitalize on his television appearances. It was clear that the reticent Megawati trailed behind Susilo in television appearances.
Certainly, television appearances were not the only reason why Susilo was voted in, but the image created by the media was powerful enough to linger in voters' minds.
Conspicuously missing was a thorough analysis of the candidates' backgrounds through this media -- a must in any democratic country. A limitation that may be a pitfall for the people, as they will only become acquainted with the real Susilo once he is in office.
Like politicians anywhere, Susilo has been good at making promises. So much so, that at times he gave the impression that he was capable of remedying all ills that plague this nation.
But he is dealing with people who have been let down many times in recent history. First, after Soeharto's fall in 1998, followed by Habibie's in 1999 and Abdurrahman Wahid's in 2001. Will the people be disappointed again after Megawati's government? People's expectations for change have never been so high.
Not letting down those who picked him as their leader, will, therefore, be a pitfall that Susilo must be aware of. As change is Susilo's mantra, what changes have been envisaged by the people? Or, what did not change under Megawati Soekarnoputri that deterred the voters from her?
Pervasive corruption is one thing that did not change. No big cats have been brought to court, so far. Other chronic illnesses also abound. They range from slack security to poor governance, separatism, slim job opportunities, restive workers, weak laws, corrupt courts, religious militancy, weak economic growth to tension between central and regional governments.
To pick one issue is taxing enough. Some 40 million people are jobless -- or about half the entire workforce. The economy has to grow by 13 percent in 2005 to accommodate it annual new workforce of 2.5 million. The fuel subsidy that has risen from Rp 14 trillion to Rp 63 trillion will soon absorb his attention. Will he rise fuel prices in November, when the current subsidy -- cut to Rp 59 trillion by the House of Representatives last week -- runs out?
On the political front, problems are no less intimidating. When presidential candidates were asked to sign a pledge to accept victory or defeat before the election season kicked off, it was done with a purpose. Defeat is largely seen as a disgrace. Politicians' fondness for (balas dendam) (revenge) once they are defeated is an open secret. This is obvious throughout Indonesian history. One example is the 1965 political earthquake, when millions of people -- communists or suspected communists -- were killed.
Susilo should be prepared for this possibility. An early sign in recent days has been Megawati's seeming reluctance to meet with Susilo, although the latter requested it.
Calls for politicians to bury the hatchet for the betterment of the nation may be plentiful -- but, even so, it is likely that beaten politicians will come back with a vengeance. The root of the problem may lie in traditional political behavior, whereby, in Indonesia's past, kingdoms fought against one another.
Given the enormous challenges that face Susilo, it would be hard to argue against the notion that people are in for another disappointment. Hence, it is important that expectations are not all-consuming. And, one of Susilo's challenges will lie in how to manage the people's expectations.
It is tempting to ask, therefore, why one would want to be a president at this point in time? But, there is no turning back for Susilo. If only he can hold the people together when the going gets tough, he will have made it. A quick fix is out, perseverance is in.
Harry Bhaskara is a staff writer at The Jakarta Post. He can be reached at harrybhaskara@yahoo.com.