After Deng: Jiang and Li handle situation carefully

In the second of a series of analyses on China's future without Deng Xiaoping, our Asia correspondent Harvey Stockwin reports on the outward calm accompanying Deng's death and funeral arrangements, as the regime seeks to portray an image of stability.

HONG KONG (JP): The initial reaction to the death of China's paramount leader Deng Xiaoping has been low-key and calm. It can hardly be anything else.

The very survival of the present leadership of China, not to mention the legitimacy of the communist regime, would be badly damaged were anything untoward to happen, thereby bringing into question the carefully constructed image of stability.

But as the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership sets six days of mourning before Deng's funeral next Tuesday, their caution betrays a certain unease as to what the political fallout may be.

However, few China-watchers believe that there will be any major, or even minor, upheaval in the immediate aftermath of Deng's death.

Apart from anything else, the leadership has had a great deal of time to prepare for this moment. It would suggest incompetence of the highest order were they unable to manage a smooth transition.

Persistent reports over the last two or three years from intelligence sources have indicated that Deng has been on a life- support system. This raises the theoretical possibility that Deng's passing may have had an element of stage management about it. (Certainly the only recent picture of Deng to appear so far in the Chinese press in Hong Kong strongly suggests the fading frame of a man who has not truly enjoyed life for a long time. All the pictures of Deng which are now allowed to appear in the controlled media in China are of the more energetic leader of yesteryear.)

So far, then, this major event has been handled smoothly. According to the official announcement Deng died, as a result of Parkinson's disease and lung infections, at 9.08 p.m. Wednesday evening with the public announcement being made nearly six hours later at 2.41 a.m. Thursday.

This was quick by some past communist standards. It was the first time that Deng had been confirmed as suffering from Parkinson's, though rumors in Hong Kong and elsewhere had suggested as much. Almost until the moment he died, official Chinese spokesmen all adhered to the party line that Deng was "in good health for a man of his age".

Beijing radio and television has been broadcasting tributes and playing funereal music in the usual somber style. There was a slightly increased security presence in Tiananmen Square, as there was near the university campuses which had supplied demonstrators for the square in 1989.

The People's Liberation Army (PLA) was reported to have been placed on a heightened degree of alert nationwide with all leave canceled and personnel ordered to report to their units. The alert was reciprocated by the armed forces of the Republic of China on Taiwan, especially on the island of Quemoy a scant two miles from China's territory. The indications are that both these alerts were more symbolic than substantial.

In Beijing and the country at large there has been no outpouring of public grief such as accompanied the death of longtime Chinese Prime Minister Zhou EnLai, and Deng's predecessor as top Chinese leader, Mao Zedong. Both Zhou and Mao died while actually still in office whereas Deng has been out of sight and in semi-retirement for several years.

The lack of public emotion is hardly surprising given the lengths to which the current leadership has recently gone to suppress all visible signs of dissent. Mourning for a dead leader in the past has often been an occasion for the expression of discontents or intensified factional fighting within the CCP.

The massive mourning subsequent to Zhou EnLai's death was initially used by Deng's opponents to try and oust him from the leadership. In the emotional aftermath of Mao's death, the infamous Gang of Four, led by Mao's wife tried to grab power but were instead arrested by what amounted to a civilian-military coup, which, in turn, ultimately led to Deng's third comeback from attempts to purge him.

The death and funeral of former CCP secretary-general Hu Yaobang in 1989 further stimulated the students demonstrations in Tiananmen Square, which ultimately led to the Beijing Massacre.

With this background, it came as no surprise when later in 1989 the CCP decreed that funerals of top leaders would in future be more modest affairs, with no foreign guests attending.

Notwithstanding Deng's eminence, and his vital role in changing China's economic prospects, this party curb has been followed in his case, too, ostensibly at the request of his family. No public lying-in-state has been planned. Deng will be cremated prior to his formal farewell next Tuesday. No foreign guests, from either the communist or the non-communist world, will be invited to attend.

Deng Xiaoping at the peak of his political power in the 1980s was always opposed to any personality cult, such as that which had surrounded Mao. While Deng has been glorified to a certain extent in retirement, notably in a recent 10-part television mini-series, in arranging his funeral, it appears that the party has now followed his wishes. However there could be factional logic behind this decision. Too much glorification of Deng now could provoke too much criticism of Deng later, in any succession struggle for power.

Unlike Lenin or Mao, Deng will not be embalmed. The indications are that his ashes will be scattered over seas near China as he is said to have wished. This is like Zhou's wish to have his ashes scattered over all parts of China. What specific seas Deng's ashes will be strewn upon has not yet been disclosed.

In another unusual move, it is reported that Deng will donate his vital organs, notably his eyes, to the advancement of medical science. This is a highly appropriate modern gesture from the man who battled to economically modernize China.

A large 453-member funeral committee was quickly appointed soon after the death announcement. No foreign journalists or diplomats will be able to attend the ceremony next Tuesday so there will be no chance to spot any nuances in the way the CCP leaders handle the situation, or anything unusual in the order of precedence in which the leadership appears, unless such moves are carried by the television cameras. The indications are that 10,000 CCP cadres will attend the funeral meeting in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.

The initially calm and orderly fallout from Deng's passing was likewise born out by the reaction on the regional stock exchanges. None of the expected plunges in market indices materialized. This was remarkable given the many occasions in the last few years when rumors of Deng's imminent death have caused a fair amount of market havoc.

Today Hong Kong stock exchange actually gained 300 points much to everyone's surprise, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges within China itself both made slight gains. To what extent these market performances were due to heavy buying by China's capitalist firms was not known.

But clearly the businessmen are calculating that no major political surprises are immediately in store. The CCP leadership under party secretary-general, chairman of the Central Military Commission and State President Jiang Zemin has had plenty of time to prepare for this moment. Jiang, together with Prime Minister Li Peng, both desire to convey a firm image of stability with their handling of Deng's death, and so far they appear to have done so.