'Aceh operation will end in anticlimax'

'Aceh operation will end in anticlimax'

Tiarma Siboro, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

Many in military circles believe that the outcome of the military
operation in Aceh will end in an anticlimax, believing that Free
Aceh Movement (GAM) rebels will not choose to head into a cold-
blooded struggle.

A senior military officer said that many rebel leaders had in
fact fled Aceh and headed for safer places such as North Sumatra
and Malaysia.

It is possible that those running overseas will launch a
political campaign to draw international support.

Meanwhile, those fleeing to other parts of Indonesia could
plan terror attacks, the officer warned.

The officer also predicted that war in Aceh would end in an
anticlimax, just like the U.S.-led military invasion of Iraq,
which did not see widespread warfare in Baghdad.

He said he did not believe that GAM would engage the military
for a long time, even in guerrilla warfare.

Another military officer, who has launched an intelligence
operation in the region, said he believed that once a large-scale
military operation began, GAM members "will simply surrender to
us".

"The current strategy will be more effective for soldiers to
avoid rights violations. We will intensify intelligence to
separate the common people from GAM rebels as well as to take
into custody those surrendering to the Republic (of Indonesia).

"I predict that once we launch a large-scale operation against
several GAM camps ... I foresee that only few militant members
will keep fighting," the source said.

Besides conducting an intelligence operation, the military
will also cut off the supply flow of GAM.

The military estimates that GAM has about 5,000 men equipped
with no more than 2,000 weapons. However, since the humanitarian
pause promoted by then president Abdurrahman Wahid in 2000, GAM
has recruited 3,000 more members and increased its military
strength by forging deals with arms dealers from both Jakarta and
abroad.

Currently GAM rebels are equipped with some automatic rifles,
including SS-1s, AK-47s, AK-54s and grenade launchers.

However, the intelligence officer believes that members
recruited after 2000 are not as militant as their seniors because
most of the new recruits come from towns and are not accustomed
to living in the jungle and as such are not prepared for lengthy
guerrilla warfare.

To counter guerrilla warfare, the Indonesian Military (TNI)
has planned to deploy at least 50,000 troops to crush the rebels.

The first source said the huge deployment was needed to secure
the people as well as vital installations in the province,
including those belonging to gas company PT Arun NGL and oil
company ExxonMobile Oil Indonesia in Lhokseumawe.

Demonstrating its strength, TNI has also readied 13 Scorpion
tanks, 23 amphibious tanks belonging to the Navy, 12 regular Navy
tanks, two F-16 jet fighters, four Hawk-200s, six Hercules, one
Superpuma, five Twinpack helicopters and six OV-10 Bronco
aircraft.

TNI predicts that the first phase of the operation will take
six months, and another one-and-half years to restore security
and order in the province, the source said.

He said the military was fully prepared for battle and crush
the rebellion.