Aceh : A tragedy of strategic proportions

Aceh : A tragedy of strategic proportions
JP/7/BRUNO1

Part 2 of 2

Aceh: A Tragedy of Strategic Proportions

Bruno Dercon
Jakarta

Part 1 of this article explained that any call for sparing
Aceh's on-land natural resources from plunder seems not
unreasonable for a people traumatized by the sea and desperate
for new sources of income. Therefore, it may be wise for the
national and provincial governments to draw up a recovery plan
which exhibits prevention and preparedness, not only against the
next tsunami, but also against future and more predictable
natural and human-caused disasters. The following policy issues
and initiatives should be considered:

* A worst-case scenario for Aceh is that it pays for short-
term recovery with the proceeds of a declining gas industry and
of a depleting forest stock. By the time roads and bridges are
rebuilt, there won't be an economy left.

* The redevelopment of Aceh's west coast needs a long-term
viability appraisal. There is no doubt that fishing will be taken
up again over time, but the question is to which extent new
infrastructure including the Ladia Galaska road network serves
genuine local recovery interests.

* The east coast of Aceh can be designated as a special
development zone with investment and tax incentives for
industrial investments. Such a zone would have greater natural
protection against disasters; has already have an industrial
infrastructure and experienced labor; can more easily develop
economic linkages with Thailand and Malaysia; and can more
readily absorb refugees from Banda Aceh and the west coast. ASEAN
sympathy must be translated into an ASEAN strategy of more
intensive cross-boundary trade and investment.

* The decline of gas exploration and of its downstream
industries should now be readdressed in terms of an active
strategy of conversion and redevelopment of assets. Alaissez-
faire attitude is unacceptable, both from the government and from
multinationals. A cooperation framework between multinationals
operating in different sectors in Aceh can contribute to the
improvement of labor mobility in general and to outplacement and
re-training in particular.

* There is a real urgency now for national forest policy
makers to depart from the past mega-concession approach to
forestry and to implement in Aceh the contemporary approaches of
community foresting. It is vital that economic recovery will not
won't be carried forward by providing benefits to large companies
only. It is equally vital that a new wave of poverty-driven
environmental destruction is prevented early on.

* Fast urban recovery depends on stimulating micro-sized and
medium-sized enterprises of all forms and colors in order to get
them off the ground again. But recovery also requires that the
claims and the memories are disconnected, when appropriate, from
the micro locations of the tragedy and readdressed in other ways.
This will require an unusual quality of local leadership,
especially in Banda Aceh. Stimulating entrepreneurship would
still require land redistribution, literally from the dead to the
living, and should avoid claims lingering for years in the
administrative and legal system. Economic recovery can then be
further aided through fast infrastructure redevelopment.

Moreover, recovery should also imply working at the built
environment and its cultural and social dimensions. Think of the
bold compensation scheme devised by the American government after
The Sept. 11 terrorist attack, which was compassionate but fast
and abundantly provided consolation and overcoming (trauma
support, sustained counseling, public remembering, public
discussion about rebuilding). The key issue is that recovery is
not allowed to become a festering process of grid lock, both
physically in the urban environment and psychologically.

* There is the issue of planning for prevention and
preparedness. Most simply and if limited to engineering issues,
that starts with working at earthquake safety, as earthquakes
happen more often than tsunamis in Aceh. Furthermore, the key to
survival is in knowledge, preparation, guaranteed access to
emergency information and response capabilities.

It would be great to devise a fail proof built environment in
the face of any disaster, but it is pretty much a waste of time
to contemplate such schemes if there is no underlying reliability
in terms of economic and social welfare.

* Part of the preparedness capabilities is the capacity for
coordinated disaster response. It has become clear that Sumatra
needs a regional disaster response system. Today, the response
structure depends on the ministries. Yet a Vice-Presidential
Office can never be sufficiently prepared for local disaster
response and neither are increasingly hollowed-out national
ministries.

In the U.S., the Federal Government is instrumental in
mobilizing support yet the FEMA (Federal Emergency Management
Authority) works through 10 response regions, each one covering
several states and each one working together with others to
respond to exceptional disasters.

More importantly, its regional offices routinely work on
training, simulation and prevention. Sumatra should set up
coordinated disaster response and preparedness systems and other
large Indonesian islands should do the same.

Next time, a large-scale response can perhaps still be
organized from Jakarta, but sustained recovery and prevention
cannot. Having Pan-Sumatra administrative capabilities would then
be an asset.

* Finally, there is little hope for local economic recovery if
the civil war is taken up again in force. A large dose of
national leadership will be needed to negotiate a peace
settlement with GAM. National leadership and more pervasive
international cooperation will also be essential in order to keep
mafia and piracy practices from resurging.

The International Maritime Bureau reported a total halt of
attacks on vessels in the past two weeks and sees it as proof
that Aceh's coastal waters must have been hosting most of the
criminal gangs (Financial Times, Jan. 6).

Today, international cooperation does make a difference on the
ground in Aceh. It will be required again for overcoming regional
issues of crime and the illegal export of natural resources and
thus for guaranteeing adequate conditions for local investment
and social recovery.

The writer (brdercon@yahoo.com) is an urban and regional
planner and was Team Leader for the Riau Master Plan 2020. The
experience derived from formulating a strategic long-term change
plan for Riau Province were instrumental for these articles.