Abstentions could reach 30%: Expert

The Jakarta Post, Malang, East Java

The level of abstentions in the runoff presidential election on Sept. 20 could reach a staggering 30 percent of registered voters, a scholar has predicted.

Political analyst from Yogyakarta-based Gadjah Mada University Ichlasul Amal said on Saturday people who would not vote in the runoff election were those who had seen their choices lose in the first round of polling on July 5.

"It has already been predicted that the turnout will be low in the runoff, given that presidential candidates who failed in the first round of elections have a large number of supporters," Amal said on the sidelines of a seminar held by state Brawijaya University.

Amal estimated that over 20 percent of registered voters did not vote in the July 5 poll.

He said that the figure could increase if formal leaders of the largest Islamic organization, Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), failed to persuade former president Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid, the organization's influential patron, to abandon his abstention stance.

Gus Dur publicly announced his poll boycott after the General Elections Commission disqualified him as a presidential candidate.

Amal said that, although voters would only choose between two presidential tickets, the candidates would have a hard time wooing voters if losing candidates in the first round of the election continued to rue their failure.

According to the provisional vote count by the General Elections Commission (KPU), the three presidential tickets that face elimination -- Wiranto-Solahuddin Wahid, Amien Rais- Siswono Yudohusodo and Hamzah Haz-Agum Gumelar -- garnered over 39 percent of the vote, or over 41 million supporters.

The KPU registered over 155 million voters nationwide.

The two tickets that would likely enter the runoff, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono-Jusuf Kalla and incumbent president, Megawati Soekarnoputri-Hasyim Muzadi respectively gained 33 percent and 26 percent of the vote.

The KPU will announce contenders for the runoff election on July 26.

Last week, leaders of several Islamic organizations openly announced their intention to abstain in the runoff election.

Analysts said the move was prompted by disillusionment at seeing their candidates lose in the July 5 poll.

Earlier, several student organizations pledged that they would not vote in the elections.