ABRI unlikely to let go of close Golkar ties: Scholar

SEMARANG (JP): The Armed Forces (ABRI) will likely retain its control over Golkar, the dominant political organization which has channeled most of its political aspirations in the past, a noted political analyst says.

"Golkar and ABRI are like `two in one'. It's very difficult to separate the two," Afan Gaffar of Gadjah Mada University said.

Speaking during a seminar to review ABRI-Golkar relations on Friday, Afan said the stakes for both sides would be too high if ABRI was to let go of its control over Golkar.

"The demand that ABRI stop nurturing Golkar and let it go by itself is not realistic," he added.

The ties between Golkar and ABRI became topical once again after Golkar Chairman Harmoko asserted this month that Golkar is independent of the Armed Forces' support. What exists is a historical relationship between the two, with retired officers and the families of ABRI members all supporting Golkar, said Harmoko, the first Golkar chairman with no military background.

Harmoko's remarks led to a polemic about how independent Golkar really is, and whether it could still retain its huge majority in the 1997 general election without ABRI support.

Some senior members of the Armed Forces cautioned that Golkar should not take ABRI's support for granted.

Golkar, an Indonesian abbreviation for Functional Group, was founded in 1964 with the support of the Army to mobilize non- partisan functional organizations to counter the growing strength of the Indonesian Communist Party (PKI) at the time.

The PKI was banned in 1966 for its role in a coup a year earlier. With the rise of Soeharto, an Army general, to the presidency in 1967, Golkar's position was also strengthened.

Golkar has won all the five general elections held under President Soeharto. In the last election, it won 68 percent of the votes, against 17 percent for the United Development Party and 15 percent for the Indonesian Democratic Party.

Afan said ABRI and Golkar are mutually supportive. ABRI has been one of the pillars supporting Golkar and conversely, Golkar has helped to channel the military's political aspirations.

"If ABRI let go of Golkar, it would be detrimental to Golkar, though it would be to the good of the democratization process," he said.

He noted that in the 1992 elections, ABRI kept a slight distance from Golkar. The result was reflected in Golkar's lower vote tally, from 73 percent in 1988 to 68 percent.

But Afan does not, however, feel that the trend will continue. "I think it is too far fetched to think about Golkar becoming a truly independent political organization."

Susilo Utomo of Diponegoro University told the seminar that Golkar could virtually be called the "state party" because it enjoys the support of the military and the civil service.

Susilo said that although Golkar has been ABRI's political instrument, the status could change.

ABRI could maintain a safe distance from Golkar and make the political group more independent, while still expecting it to look after its political interests.

Or ABRI could maintain equal distance from all three political groups, he said. (har/emb)