Abdurrahman's absence

There is no doubt many Indonesians are having difficulty deciding whether to be reassured or worried that the military has put itself on heightened alert "to anticipate any possible disturbances" during President Abdurrahman Wahid's 16-day absence from the country.

If anything, the President's assurance -- no doubt intended to comfort the nation -- that "almost all" military officers are loyal to him and that "only a handful" of "cowardly" officers may be disloyal, has helped heighten the climate of uncertainty he is leaving behind.

No one questions Abdurrahman's good intentions in making his fourth overseas trip in the less than four months he has been in office. His assertion that he is not going abroad "for fun" is rather superfluous given his widely known preference for living simply.

Like his earlier trips abroad, his present tour, which will cover 13 countries including Saudi Arabia and several countries in Europe and Asia, is aimed essentially at rallying more economic aid for the country as well as securing recognition of Indonesia's territorial integrity.

Given the pledges of economic and political support which the President has so far received from foreign governments, including the United States and China, it can be surmised that his overseas trips indeed have been beneficial for Indonesia.

The problem is that this time the President is leaving his country in a climate of grave uncertainty. The President's light- hearted refutals notwithstanding, rumors of a possible military coup have refused to die. Indeed, the rumors appeared to gain in strength after Abdurrahman's departure from Jakarta on Friday.

In the already fidgety market, the rumors created enough further uncertainty to cause the Jakarta Stock Exchange to fall by around 1.5 percent on Friday. The rupiah also dropped slightly during the week.

In the meantime, sectarian clashes in Maluku continued to flare during the past week, albeit at apparently reduced intensity. And with the continuing casualties in Aceh on the side of both the government and the separatist rebels, neither does the unrest in the country's westernmost province appear to be anywhere near a lasting conclusion.

Overall, security disturbances in the country show no sign of subsiding in the foreseeable future. Terrorists and provocateurs even appear to be broadening their scope of operations to such previously peaceful areas as Yogyakarta, where security officers were able to prevent a bomb from destroying the city's grand mosque -- an act that could easily have turned this ancient city into the country's latest hot spot of sectarian violence.

With all this anxiety and uncertainty, the country has been left in the charge of Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri, whose popularity among the masses is unquestioned, but whose experience in matters of government remains untested. Given the circumstances, the best one can hope for is that Abdurrahman's confidence that nothing will happen during his 16-day absence derives from hard intelligence rather than mere intuition.

As for the Vice President, this is her opportunity to show the nation and the world that she does indeed have the capacity to lead the nation, even if it is one careful step at a time, toward a better future.