Abdurrahman must beware of growing political divisions

Disappointment with Abdurrahman Wahid's (Gus Dur) government is leading to strange bedfellows, with the former ruling party, Golkar, the faction being most courted, says observer Azyumardi Azra, rector of the state-run Syarif Hidayatullah Institute of Islamic Studies in South Jakarta. The following is an excerpt of Wednesday's interview:

Question: How do you view the current restlessness of politicians, including those among the Islamic factions that most supported Gus Dur for president? Answer: We are seeing a significant increase in the political advocacy of Islamic movements (factions) which had declined in the beginning of Gus Dur's government. Now the scale of increased political activism is leaning toward radicalism.

This is partly influenced by the perception that Gus Dur as a Muslim leader has not fulfilled earlier hopes.

Regarding their attitudes to Gus Dur, there are three different groups: the first are the loyalists, mostly within Nahdlatul Ulama (the country's largest Islamic organization formerly led by Gus Dur) and the National Awakening Party (PKB, founded by Gus Dur).

The second group are those who used to support Gus Dur, mostly within the so-called axis force of Islamic factions.

They see that Gus Dur still serves their interest but that he must be watched very closely. They have no alternative to Gus Dur; if he were to be replaced then (Vice President) Megawati Soekarnoputri would take his place. They're not ready to accept her, more because of her secular nationalist label and incapability, rather than because she's a woman.

Among those with such guarded optimism are modernists such as the Crescent Star Party (PBB) and the Indonesian Committee for World Moslems Solidarity (KISDI).

But we are also seeing beginnings of a dialog between elements of this group towards Megawati's camp.

What are the indications?

For instance the beginnings of a dialog between the United Development Party (PPP) and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (which Megawati chairs), which also involves Golkar.

To continue, the third group are the hardliners who are beginning to be explicitly anti-Gus Dur, including movements such as the Laskar Jihad (Jihad Force) and others.

Such groups are the extension of the civilian security volunteers (pamswakarsa) who earlier voiced support for (his predecessor) B.J. Habibie. They were disappointed with Gus Dur becoming president right from the beginning.

Earlier they couldn't be explicit about their disappointment because everyone seemed to be supporting Gus Dur.

In the midst of efforts to build a civil society, why are such groups so willing to ally with military members? They acknowledge at least individual support of some military and police officers.

To liberal Muslims such alliances are indeed incompatible and unfeasible with "democracy" or "civil rights." But in the "Islamic agenda" (adopted by hardliners), strong governance is needed to uphold Islamic values and achieve Islamic sovereignty. The military comes into use here.

In the classic political paradigm of such groups the civil- military dichotomy is not an issue ... Indeed this has been widely criticized. Naturally, power tends to corrupt ... Does Gus Dur benefit from such divisions?

So far he has been able to maintain control. But increasing "social illegitimacy" such as lack of law enforcement, and unsettled issues seen to be hurting Muslims such as the Maluku violence, could endanger him.

Adding to these, Gus Dur throws up issues considered to be unfair to Muslims such as suggesting the lift of the ban on communism. To Muslim liberals this may be no problem from the view of diverse opinions, but to others it's totally unacceptable. Surely he knows that?

Well he's playing with fire. Together with the failed economic recovery, such issues could lead to other groups, such as hardline students, feeling deprived and as a consequence teaming up against Gus Dur and certain ethnic groups (as reflected by protests this week supporting the replaced minister of industry and trade Yusuf Kalla who is from Makassar -- Ed).

It's similar to the days leading to Soeharto's fall, where we saw marriages of convenience between groups that hardly ever agreed with each other.

Where do you think the dialog between PPP and PDI Perjuangan is going?

Alliances in politics will continued to be formed ... Golkar is being fought for, for common interests. Nahdlatul Ulama and PKB are talking now about not only keeping Gus Dur in his seat but retaining him for another term.

Matori Abdul Djalil (PKB chairman) has said Gus Dur is ready for two terms so PKB is targeting for more seats. Mere alliances are not enough.

So predictions are coming true about people turning to Golkar after the polls.

Golkar here remains the real force ... The elite of the Islamic groupings are too fragmented ... PDI Perjuangan is also eying Golkar as seen by their mutual approaches ... while in the past PDI Perjuangan saw Golkar as the symbol of the status quo. Golkar is also calculating what it might get.

From the formal political point of view Gus Dur is still safe, suggestions for a special session (demanding his accountability) was called off but that's only temporary.

So dismissing calls for the special session was just a cooling down of things?

Yes, the agreement gives Gus Dur another chance and he should use it. But the option for a special session later this year remains open if the country's condition gets worse. However, Gus Dur is very self-confident and such people can become authoritarian.

Changing one minister or the whole cabinet would have the same political repercussion. It would be better to change the whole cabinet but with transparency and credibility as the basis ...

Now ministers are having a hard time trying to work while thinking whether they're next.

The replacement of Kalla with Lt.Gen. Luhut Panjaitan has been widely questioned, also by foreigners.

The reportedly cold attitude towards (Minister of Defense) Juwono Sudarsono by the State Department in his recent visit to Washington shows ... that the United States is also uncomfortable with the large number of positions given to the military ...

We also hear Surjadi Soedirdja (Minister of Home Affairs) will become Coordinating Minister for Political Affairs and Security. If Gus Dur takes merit into account his replacement should be (State Minister for Regional Autonomy) Ryaas Rasyid but if it's one of his people again it could be (State Minister of the Empowerment of Women) Khofifah Indar Parawansa (a PKB executive).

Is there a prospect for modernist Muslims coming together with the PBB congress being held from April 26 to April 30?

In the context of democratization we need a rationalization of parties. Forty-eight parties joining elections was too much, leading to nonconducive fragmentation, and there were a number of other parties who missed the deadline to join elections, who also claimed to be a revival of Masyumi (once large Islamic party).

If PBB could lead the way to reconciliation among such parties it would be a great contribution to the growth of our democracy.

Masyumi is now divided as represented by parties such as those under Ridwan Saidi and Deliar Noer.

Such a fragmented elite only leads to group egoism, sacrificing not only the interest of Muslims but also of the nation, as reflected through the rackets at the General Elections Commission.

Would members of that elite want to come together?

They must find a way to overcome their psychological barriers and differences. They often come together but only for gestures of decency ... If they agree that those of the Masyumi movement want to really have a say in the political process they must unite.

I agree that their positive side is being critical towards Gus Dur but they waste all their energy with commenting on his every statement so their programs and dire need for consolidation are neglected.

Another strength of the modernists is that historically they have proven to be more compatible with ideals of building a modern Indonesia; they've been more capable of working with others as seen by their past cooperation with the Catholic Party.

And modernist Muslims have personnel with adequate technocratic skills urgently needed to address our problems.

Is Gus Dur trying to keep opponents divided by his controversial measures?

In any case he has neglected the consequences particularly with the accumulation of all problems which are perhaps coincidental. If massive teacher and labor strikes continue this could lead to increasing disruption and radical movements.

Gus Dur still has a large opportunity to accommodate (rivals). They have named candidates to replace Gus Dur such as Nurcholish Madjid (a noted scholar) and Adi Sasono (former minister under Habibie government) but are still constrained by constitutional and acceptability factors.

What about Yusril Ihza Mahendra, the PBB chairman and one time presidential candidate?

He is building his image through a very strategic issue that is everyone's concern -- judicial reform. In the cabinet, I'd say he's about the only one with a concept (as Minister of Minister of Law and Legislation).

He's attempting to straighten out the knot in the courts, move out suspected judges, and adding new (clean) ones.

If Yusril continues like this he'll gain much credit. (anr)