Abdullah well-placed to replace Mahathir

Ho Khai Leong, Department of Political Science, National University of Singapore, The Strait times, Asia News Network, Singapore

The end of Mahathir Mohamad's reign as the Prime Minister of Malaysia has been anticipated for a long time. What surprised observers is the manner in which he announced his retirement.

This was, of course, not the first time that he engaged in an outpouring of emotions publicly. But doing so to such an extent was too unexpected, and it seemed undignified for a statesman who has been in charge for 21 years.

What is even more surprising in the events that followed is the 15-month transition period that his handpicked successor has to wait to take over.

While waiting, the country will be facing more uncertainties than certainties. Interested investors and regional neighbors probably wish that the transition period could be shorter.

The choice of venue and timing -- the United Malays National Organization (UMNO) annual general assembly -- for Mahathir to announce his decision to step down, reinforced the fact that UMNO is the dominant force in Malaysian politics. What happens in the general assembly is closely observed, and the decisions made during the convention have significant impact on the future of the party as well as the country.

The posts of president and deputy president of UMNO are traditionally held by the Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister of Malaysia.

The target audience of Mahathir's speech was the Malay community and UMNO supporters, although the whole country was watching. That the Malaysian leader chose such an occasion, rather than Parliament or a national televised address, to announce decisions on political succession, again reflected his strong ethnic attachments.

The immediate response of UMNO top officials, community leaders and some public figures to his unexpected announcement was puzzling. Their appeal for their leader to retract his resignation and to stay on appeared genuine, but it reflected a deeper symptom of dysfunctional democracy in the Malaysian system of government.

One is reminded of an episode in Yongzheng Dynasty, a Mandarin television serial watched widely by both Singaporean and Malaysian audiences, in which the emperor Yongzheng feels guilty for not doing enough for his subjects.

He wants to reprimand himself by relinquishing the throne. The stunned court officials go down on their knees and cry in concert, Your Majesty.

What happens next is predictable -- the emperor not only does not resign, but also further consolidates his authority and legitimacy.

What should be noted is not Mahathir's action, but the country's reaction. Their call for him to retract his statements and to stay on certainly indicates that there is a widespread "Mahathir cult", and underneath this appeal lies what political scientists Gabriel Almond and Sydney Verba called "subject political culture" and the feudalistic consciousness of the people.

For Malaysia, there has to be political life after Mahathir.

Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, or whoever assumes the premiership 15 months from now, will no doubt live in his predecessor's shadow.

The PM's reforms to meet the challenges of globalization, his modernization programs for the Malays and the country, and his Wawasan 2020 are valuable policies that his successor must continue to implement.

Critics, however, have misgivings about his administration. The transformation of the power structure -- between political and judicial institutions, between the federal and state governments, between the polis and the market -- will require careful repair and restoration by the future Malaysian leader.

Is Datuk Seri Abdullah up to the job? There is always a worry that the successor of a political strongman will have less legitimacy and therefore less power to manage the country.

The fact is, many successors of strongmen have found their own niches of governance, and in some cases surpassed the previous administrations in managing economic and political change.

When former Taiwan president Lee Teng-hui succeeded his predecessor Chiang Ching-kuo, his legitimacy was questioned.

Singapore Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong faced similar challenges when he took over the premiership from Lee Kuan Yew.

Moreover, Datuk Seri Abdullah, appointed deputy premier in February 1999, is an experienced government servant. He has held the education, defense and foreign ministry portfolios. He is widely regarded as a moderate, a man who understands the complexities of Malaysian plural societies.