A window of opportunity in Johannesburg summit

James D. Wolfensohn, President, World Bank, New York

Last spring, the United Nations summit in Monterrey spurred poor countries to commit to improve their policies and governance in exchange for promises by rich countries to deliver more aid, and open their markets to trade. The World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg next week gives us the chance to put those words into action.

What should the world expect from Johannesburg? Perhaps the best way to answer that is to look ahead and imagine what kind of world we want, not just now, but for our children, and our children's children.

According to the World Bank's new World Development Report 2003, the next 50 years could see the global population swell by 50 percent to nine billion people, and the world's gross domestic product increase fourfold to US$140 trillion. Given current trends in production and consumption, social and environmental strains threaten to derail development efforts and erode living standards unless we design better policies and institutions.

Development policies will need to be even more closely focused on protecting our forests, fisheries and farms -- and making them more productive -- if the poor are to narrow the equality gap that has emerged in the past 50 years. Misguided policies and weak governance have contributed to environmental disasters, growing income inequality, and social upheaval in some countries, often resulting in deep deprivation, riots, or refugees fleeing famine or civil wars.

If we stay on the road we are on, the signs do not appear very encouraging. By 2050, the world's annual output of carbon dioxide will have more than tripled while nine billion people -- three billion more than we have today and mostly living in developing countries -- will be tapping into the earth's water, adding more stress on the world's already-strained water supply.

Meanwhile, food needs will more than double, a grim prospect for Africa where food production is currently falling behind the pace of population growth. All this in a world where extinction already threatens 12 percent of all bird species, and a quarter of its species of mammals.

Globally, 1.3 billion people already live on fragile lands -- arid zones, wetlands, and forests -- that cannot sustain them. By 2050, and for the first time in history, more people will be living in cities than in rural areas. Without better planning, the stresses from immigration and population shifts across the globe could create new social upheaval and desperate competition for already scare resources.

Yet these trends also offer windows of opportunity, if world leaders and policy makers meeting in Johannesburg muster the courage to pledge -- and follow through on -- bold actions over the next 10 to 15 years. Most of the capital stock and infrastructure -- housing, shops, factories, roads, power and water services -- that will be needed by the growing population in coming decades does not yet exist.

Better standards, increased efficiency, and more inclusive means of decision-making could mean that these assets are built in ways that put fewer strains on society and the environment. Similarly, as population growth slows, economic growth will translate more readily into lower poverty and higher incomes per capita -- provided that development over the next few decades has been handled in a way that does not destroy the natural resources that underpin growth or erode critical social values, such as trust.

We must strive for the Millennium Development Goals, which map out a world where poverty is cut in half by 2015, and in so doing we will lay the basis for a virtuous cycle of growth and human development in the poor nations of the world.

If individual incomes in the developing world grow by an average of 3.3 percent annually, they would reach $6,300 a year by 2050, nearly one-third more than that in current upper/middle income countries. And such growth is already viewed as a modest goal by some leaders in the developing world. Over the past two decades, we have seen growth in many East Asian countries at an annual average of nearly twice that rate.

For ordinary people, their basic human needs for shelter, food and clothing could be affordably met. Life expectancy would rise to 72 years in poor countries, compared with 58 today in those nations with the lowest incomes. The number of children who die before the age of five would drop dramatically, and the number of people who can read and write would rise to nearly 95 percent.

Of course, this dramatic economic growth would pose potentially enormous risks to the natural environment, and these risks are greatest in developing countries. Given rich nations are the greatest consumers of our common resources, they have a special responsibility to help the developing world address these risks.

We all must protect our forests and fisheries from overexploitation. We must halt soil degradation, and ensure our water supplies are used efficiently. We must protect biologically diverse ecosystems, as they underpin the flow of goods and services essential to our economies and societies. We must limit emissions from factories, cars and households. That is why the challenge of delivering sustainable development must be met locally, nationally, and globally.

Developing countries need to promote democracy, inclusiveness and transparency as they build the institutions needed to manage their resources. Rich countries should increase aid, support debt reduction, open their markets to developing country exporters, and help transfer technologies needed to prevent diseases, and especially to increase energy efficiency and bolster agricultural productivity.

Civil society can act as a voice for dispersed interests, and provide independent oversight of public, private and nongovernmental performances. A socially responsible private sector, supported by good government, should create incentives for companies to pursue their interests while advancing environmental and social objectives. And the international community must work together on global issues, such as climate change and biodiversity.

If we wisely safeguard our vital resources, key among them the environment, and social stability, then we will attain the growth rates essential to reducing poverty in ways that will last. It would be reckless of us to successfully reach the Millennium Development Goals in 2015 only to be confronted by chaotic cities, dwindling water supplies, increased emissions, and even less cropland to sustain us than we have now.