'A third of Indonesians unsure who they want for president'

The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

More than a third of Indonesians have not made up their minds about who they believe would be the best president for the next term, a national survey reveals.

The survey, by the International Foundation for Election Systems (IFES), asked 3,000 respondents from 32 provinces across the country who they thought would be the best president for Indonesia when they go to the polls in the first direct presidential election next year.

Surprisingly, 34 percent said they did not know.

The top three candidates named by respondents are: incumbent Megawati Soekarnoputri (14.7 percent), her top security minister Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (11.2 percent) and Sultan Hamengkubuwono X of Yogyakarta (8.7 percent).

Other established leaders such as Abdurrahman Wahid, Amien Rais, Hamzah Haz and Nurcholis Madjid do not inspire much of a following at this time. (see table)

Megawati is the top choice in most regions. The only exceptions are the western part of Java such as Jakarta, West Java and Banten where she is second to Susilo (10 percent to 7 percent), in Central Java and Yogyakarta where she is second to Hamengkubuwono (23 percent to 17 percent).

Surprisingly, Megawati is also second to Susilo in her stronghold of Bali, West and East Nusa Tenggara (27 percent to 22 percent).

As expected, Megawati is third to her people's welfare minister Jusuf Kalla in Sulawesi.

Megawati is the first choice of those in rural areas (16 percent) to Susilo (10 percent), but she trails behind Susilo in urban areas (13 percent to 11 percent). She also enjoys more support among women than Susilo (15 percent to 8 percent).

Megawati is still seen as the best possible president by more Indonesians than any other figure despite widespread dissatisfaction with her performance and her government's efforts.

In most cases, according to the survey, Indonesians are dissatisfied with the accomplishments of President Megawati in implementing reforms.

A majority of people (56 percent) are dissatisfied with Megawati's performance. Only 36 percent of respondents feel satisfied with Megawati's performance.

A higher percentage of people in rural areas are satisfied with Megawati (40 percent) than urban areas (30 percent), although even in rural areas a majority (51 percent) are dissatisfied with her performance.

An important finding of the survey is that a majority (51 percent) of those who report having voted for Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) in the 1999 parliamentary election are dissatisfied with Megawati's performance, while 44 percent are satisfied.

As would be expected, the performance of the government has an impact on the level of satisfaction with Megawati's performance.

More people are dissatisfied especially with Megawati's attempts at reform in the economic sector (72 percent dissatisfied, 20 percent satisfied), the drive against corruption (70 percent dissatisfied) and efforts to implement clean government (62 percent dissatisfied) and law enforcement (50 percent).

Nevertheless, on democratization, more people are satisfied than dissatisfied (47 percent against 39 percent).

The survey was conducted from 1 June to 5 July 2003. The results are based on face-to-face interviews with 3,000 respondents in 32 provinces throughout Indonesia. The respondents were chosen randomly in urban and rural areas. The sample size taken in each province was determined according to its proportion of the total population.

Best President for Indonesia in 2004

Candidate Percentage

Megawati Soekarnoputri 13.7% Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono 11.2% Sri Sultan Hamengkubuwono X 8.7% Abdurrahman Wahid 5.1% Amien Rais 4.4% Yusril Ihza Mahendra 4.1% Hamzah Haz 3.4% Akbar Tanjung 3.1% Gen. (ret.) Wiranto 3% Nurcholis Madjid 2.9% Jusuf Kalla 1.9% Others 4.6% Don't know 34%

Source: IFES