A spiral of violence

As the communal violence continues to drag on in the eastern Indonesian province of Maluku -- the former spice islands of the Moluccas -- it increasingly appears that even the authorities are at a loss on how to deal with the unrest that has so far claimed hundreds of lives.

According to police records, almost a year after the first skirmish erupted on Jan. 19, 1999, at least 657 civilians and 14 security officers have died in intercommunal clashes in and around Ambon on the main island of Haruku and elsewhere. Since then, clashes between communal groups have continued to flare on and off and in different areas, but nevertheless with a regularity that is disconcerting to say the least. In the latest clash, which occurred last week on the island of Seram, at least 31 people died.

With no sign of abating, the killing and destruction which has been occurring in Maluku for nearly a year is terrifying indeed. But even worse than the mounting statistics are the pressures and uncertainty which the strife brings to the local population.

The natural question to ask in view of all this is, what is going on in Maluku and how can the discord and violence be brought to an end? Violent intercommunal clashes, after all, were practically unknown until January this year. Muslims and Christians have lived in harmony on those islands for as long as locals can remember.

The sad answer is that no one seems to know. Another and much more ominous possibility is that some people know, but are keeping silent for reasons of their own. As for the authorities, they seem to be as much in the dark regarding the situation as the vast majority of Indonesians. Consider, for example, a recent remark made by Coordinating Minister for Political and Security Affairs Wiranto.

Speaking in Jakarta early this month to a group of performing artists from Maluku, Wiranto acknowledged that he was at a loss about how to resolve sectarian violence in their province. According to Wiranto, the problem could only be solved by the parties involved in the fighting.

Who, though, are these parties? On the face of it the answer may seem clear enough: Muslim groups among the population on the one side and Christians on the other, instigated, perhaps, in the beginning by provocateurs. That, however, sounds like a gross oversimplification of the situation. For one thing, how to explain the fact that for so many decades, or even centuries, up to the end of last year Christians and Muslims lived side-by-side in perfect peace on the islands?

For another, as the clashes continue, lives have been lost from the various sides involved in the conflict -- not just community groups, but the police and military as well. Inevitably, this must have given rise to feelings of rancor and a desire to retaliate. And as the violence continues, such sentiments are likely to spread in ever wider circles.

This being the situation, it would seem that acquiring a precise understanding of what is happening in Maluku is the first step that must be taken in order to be able to plan a strategy for ending the violence and restoring peace in the area. The fact that a year after the first outbreak of violence analyses on the situation are still largely based on speculation could be taken as an indication that our state intelligence services are not operating as professionally as they should.

Whatever the case, clearly Maluku deserves our immediate and fullest attention. Unless a solution is found soon -- if necessary with the help of local religious and community leaders and experts -- Maluku could be sucked even deeper into the maelstrom of violence, with consequences that are difficult to foresee.