A 'sleeping revolution' looms

Amid calls for a speedier transition of government, the military has said the General Session of the nation's most supreme lawmaking body, which will elect the new president, may have to be delayed. The Jakarta Post talked to political researcher Hermawan Sulistyo on the issue.

Question: The military has said the situation is not conducive to holding the General Session of the People's Consultative Assembly, slated to start in October. What is the reason for this and who would benefit from a delay?

Answer: Technically it would be impossible to start earlier than the first phase of Oct. 1 to 3 -- many of the regional legislatures which have to appoint regional representatives haven't even been formed.

Politically, a delay of the General Session would benefit (President B.J.) Habibie and his camp. He would not have finished his accountability report for the Assembly; Bank Bali and East Timor wouldn't be resolved by early October.

There is still the unresolved question of whether his report should include the term of (his predecessor) Soeharto, and contemporary issues which would make his report hard to accept. These include the Bank Bali scandal, East Timor, the shootings at Trisakti and Semanggi, the violence in Aceh, Ambon and Banyuwangi. He might be able to skirt the question on the safety net funds.

All this time his strategy has been "digging a hole and covering the other". Instead of resolving one issue, another is raised. This has been effective so far to buy time, assuming that people will forget (the original issue).

Regarding Golkar's schedule to hold its leaders meeting on Oct. 15, the meeting would raise much more pressure against Habibie (as the party's presidential candidate) compared to the opposition of only 39 executives (in the former leaders meeting).

Q: What would be the Indonesian Military's agenda to delay the MPR session?

A: They are waiting for legislators to pass the state security bill expected this week, to justify a state of emergency. If Habibie's camp keeps insisting (on Habibie's reelection), the military expects a clash. All these factors contribute to the complexity which benefits one side and leads to a loss of others.

From the view of a zero sum game, Megawati's camp (in and outside the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle), even passively, benefits from the Baligate and East Timor issues.

The composition of the Assembly can make Habibie win. Without crucial problems like Baligate and East Timor, even without money politics, the (unelected 200) regional representatives and interest group factions would be dominated by Habibie's camp.

But because it would be almost impossible for his accountability report to be accepted, many on his side would become a "floating mass" in the Assembly. The "axis force" could then become significant as the support for Habibie is dispersed.

The floating mass would be the most vulnerable to pork barrel politics. This would greatly risk the survival of the political system. The notion of representation would erode because politics would only operate among the elite. The party which won some 35 percent of the vote could only be represented by 15 percent in the composition of power. The elections would have been for nothing.

If Megawati (Soekarnoputri) isn't elected, anyone else chosen as president would have difficulty facing the DPR without pork barrel tactics. It would be hard to get a workable system unless another candidate can disperse the support for Megawati.

Q: Would that be Abdurrahman Wahid of the axis force?

A: He could... but that wouldn't be good political education. As long as the popular vote is not represented, the quality of representation of any state institution is eroded.

The solution (in case of a deadlock) would be to amputate the Assembly. Unelected members should agree to delegate their mandate to elected members, which would leave the House to elect the president. This would be a radical way out in this transition to democracy.

Q: The Indonesian Military (TNI) has said it would be "active" in the presidential election...

A: So let them (the 38 unelected TNI members) initiate delegating the unelected members' mandate. And it would be constitutional.

Q: Is that likely?

A: This is the ideal, while the reality is a power struggle... A street parliament should push (for a solution). Given the current political hubbub, more people will join in (than in May 1998). They have been waiting but have been unsure of what to do.

Q: So would you prefer a speedier Assembly session?

A: The second phase could be moved up, why wait till November? The worst is if we have the General Session from Nov. 1-10. Give them until Nov. 5... if there's no progress by Nov. 10 the students should take the lead again. We can all either join a street parliament or sleep at home for four days. This would be at a minimum social cost, you can't be arrested for staying at home. Everyone with enough money could pay for another needy person's income to stay home. This would be the (public's) last and final warning. The "sleeping revolution" would include demands that all those with links to the old regime must gracefully step out if they don't want to be removed by force.

In another month, the economy will worsen if the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund really carry out their threats (of withholding aid) in absence of a speedy process of Baligate. The impact would be felt in three weeks and public resentment would reach a peak.

Rather than having Habibie step down earlier, the real issue is how to unite the public agenda and exert pressure so leaders could turn to their own consciences. (anr)