A 'sleeping revolution' looms

A 'sleeping revolution' looms

Amid calls for a speedier transition of government, the
military has said the General Session of the nation's most
supreme lawmaking body, which will elect the new president, may
have to be delayed. The Jakarta Post talked to political
researcher Hermawan Sulistyo on the issue.

Question: The military has said the situation is not conducive
to holding the General Session of the People's Consultative
Assembly, slated to start in October. What is the reason for this
and who would benefit from a delay?

Answer: Technically it would be impossible to start earlier
than the first phase of Oct. 1 to 3 -- many of the regional
legislatures which have to appoint regional representatives
haven't even been formed.

Politically, a delay of the General Session would benefit
(President B.J.) Habibie and his camp. He would not have finished
his accountability report for the Assembly; Bank Bali and East
Timor wouldn't be resolved by early October.

There is still the unresolved question of whether his report
should include the term of (his predecessor) Soeharto, and
contemporary issues which would make his report hard to accept.
These include the Bank Bali scandal, East Timor, the shootings at
Trisakti and Semanggi, the violence in Aceh, Ambon and
Banyuwangi. He might be able to skirt the question on the safety
net funds.

All this time his strategy has been "digging a hole and
covering the other". Instead of resolving one issue, another is
raised. This has been effective so far to buy time, assuming that
people will forget (the original issue).

Regarding Golkar's schedule to hold its leaders meeting on
Oct. 15, the meeting would raise much more pressure against
Habibie (as the party's presidential candidate) compared to the
opposition of only 39 executives (in the former leaders meeting).

Q: What would be the Indonesian Military's agenda to delay the
MPR session?

A: They are waiting for legislators to pass the state security
bill expected this week, to justify a state of emergency. If
Habibie's camp keeps insisting (on Habibie's reelection), the
military expects a clash. All these factors contribute to the
complexity which benefits one side and leads to a loss of others.

From the view of a zero sum game, Megawati's camp (in and
outside the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle), even
passively, benefits from the Baligate and East Timor issues.

The composition of the Assembly can make Habibie win. Without
crucial problems like Baligate and East Timor, even without money
politics, the (unelected 200) regional representatives and
interest group factions would be dominated by Habibie's camp.

But because it would be almost impossible for his
accountability report to be accepted, many on his side would
become a "floating mass" in the Assembly. The "axis force" could
then become significant as the support for Habibie is dispersed.

The floating mass would be the most vulnerable to pork barrel
politics. This would greatly risk the survival of the political
system. The notion of representation would erode because politics
would only operate among the elite. The party which won some 35
percent of the vote could only be represented by 15 percent in
the composition of power. The elections would have been for
nothing.

If Megawati (Soekarnoputri) isn't elected, anyone else chosen
as president would have difficulty facing the DPR without pork
barrel tactics. It would be hard to get a workable system unless
another candidate can disperse the support for Megawati.

Q: Would that be Abdurrahman Wahid of the axis force?

A: He could... but that wouldn't be good political education. As
long as the popular vote is not represented, the quality of
representation of any state institution is eroded.

The solution (in case of a deadlock) would be to amputate the
Assembly. Unelected members should agree to delegate their
mandate to elected members, which would leave the House to elect
the president. This would be a radical way out in this transition
to democracy.

Q: The Indonesian Military (TNI) has said it would be "active" in
the presidential election...

A: So let them (the 38 unelected TNI members) initiate delegating
the unelected members' mandate. And it would be constitutional.

Q: Is that likely?

A: This is the ideal, while the reality is a power struggle... A
street parliament should push (for a solution). Given the current
political hubbub, more people will join in (than in May 1998).
They have been waiting but have been unsure of what to do.

Q: So would you prefer a speedier Assembly session?

A: The second phase could be moved up, why wait till November?
The worst is if we have the General Session from Nov. 1-10.
Give them until Nov. 5... if there's no progress by Nov. 10 the
students should take the lead again. We can all either join a
street parliament or sleep at home for four days. This would be
at a minimum social cost, you can't be arrested for staying at
home. Everyone with enough money could pay for another needy
person's income to stay home. This would be the (public's) last
and final warning. The "sleeping revolution" would include
demands that all those with links to the old regime must
gracefully step out if they don't want to be removed by force.

In another month, the economy will worsen if the World Bank
and the International Monetary Fund really carry out their
threats (of withholding aid) in absence of a speedy process of
Baligate. The impact would be felt in three weeks and public
resentment would reach a peak.

Rather than having Habibie step down earlier, the real issue
is how to unite the public agenda and exert pressure so leaders
could turn to their own consciences. (anr)