A ripple that became a tsunami

By Sidesh Kaul

JAKARTA (JP): President B.J. Habibie is a cornered man. In a quick reversal made under the burden of mounting international pressure, he hastily called a press conference on Sept. 12 at the Presidential Palace in Jakarta and checked the growing influence of the Army in full view of the world by agreeing to international peacekeepers in East Timor.

In January of this year, Habibie agreed to hold a referendum on autonomy for East Timor, in what many saw as a risky gamble. The ballot was conducted successfully under the aegis of the United Nations Mission in East Timor (UNAMET) and the protection of the Indonesian armed forces. The result of the ballot, as announced by UNAMET, indicated the majority of the East Timorese rejected autonomy, or, in other words, wanted independence. All hell broke loose shortly afterward when pro-Indonesian militias, in connivance with the Indonesian armed forces, used mindless and brutal violence to voice their frustration.

While some critics may say that in compromising the security and integrity of the nation, Habibie committed political suicide, the fact often goes unnoticed that Habibie has done a service by showing the whole world that in a fledgling democracy without the proper democratic infrastructure and institutions, the armed forces has a major role.

Here was a President who was unpopular, uncertain of his political future and beleaguered by a multitude of forces both at home and abroad. Everybody knew the East Timor issue was bound to create factions within the government, the armed forces and the polity.

The Indonesian people themselves are divided on this issue. There was and is no consensus among the various political parties on the issue of East Timor. By agreeing to the referendum, Habibie risks not having the support of the legislature when the results of the referendum come up for ratification before the People's Consultative Assembly.

Moreover, there was a persistent chorus of demands from various countries to hold the ballot, as well as threats of punitive economic isolation. The reasons for holding the ballot were compelling. Habibie knew which way the vote was going to go and yet he chose to forge ahead with the referendum. Why did he do this? Was he overcome by a sudden surge of democratic adrenalin that propelled him into this courageous step? Or was this a desperate attempt for political survival, with the lives of the East Timorese and the collective pride of the Indonesian people mere sacrificial pawns? These questions will be debated at length in the days to come.

East Timor is a sensitive issue in Indonesia. For the last 25 years, children have grown up learning about this province which was "liberated" from the Portuguese by brave Indonesian soldiers. This act of liberation itself, over the years, has been imprinted on the psyche of every Indonesian as a just and righteous act against cruel and exploitative colonizers. After several centuries of exploitation, some Indonesians view the current sympathetic noises made by the Portuguese as hypocritical repentance, while others view it as a sophisticated vendetta.

This is part of the East Timor psycho-cultural baggage that cannot be ignored if one is to find a lasting solution to this territory. The "liberation" of East Timor is naturally part of the legend that has been drilled into the rank and file of the Army. To overturn the magic of this legend overnight is a tall order and any attempts made to force a change in belief would lead to chaos. This is precisely what has happened and the concern is that this chaos might grow in dimensions and take newer forms in the days to come.

Gen. Wiranto has emerged from the Timor situation with his reputation in tatters and some of the credibility he earned in the early days of the reform movement irreversibly lost. The Indonesian Army that once stood like a veritable juggernaut controlling every facet of Indonesian life, now cringes at diatribes and threats from Mary Robinson of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights. From the outside the Army appears demoralized, confused and leaderless, and the chorus of critics that want the Army to be banished from the political theater is growing to a crescendo.

The East Timor issue has caused nationalistic sections within the Indonesian polity to take an anti-Western stance. Recent history is witness to the fact that Indonesia's past anti-Western postures have had disastrous consequences for the economy. The concern here is that ordinary Indonesians, cornered and confused by the plethora of negativity, would fall prey to the temptations of populist jingoism and unwittingly retard their own chances for revival.

The list of problems seems never ending. An unresolved Bank Bali scandal that appears to get more complicated with each passing day; the suspension of aid by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank; the threat of trade sanctions from large trading nations; weak leadership; a divided Army; a divided nation; squabbling political parties; the distant rumblings of the Aceh secessionist movement.

There is great concern on the backlash all this could have on Indonesia's economic recovery. With the crescendo of scathing condemnation pouring in from all quarters, Indonesia runs the risk of being classified alongside pariah nations. This is something the proud Indonesian people would find hard to stomach because they were never part of the country's decision-making process (or lack of it) in the first place.

The carnage in East Timor and its economic and political fallout is the result of machinations and maneuverings at the highest levels, by the political elite who have unhesitatingly sacrificed national pride at the altar of political expediency. The fallout from East Timor threatens to reach epic proportions. The ripple has become a tsunami.

During the New Order regime, Soeharto successfully exploited the dual function of the Army to neutralize all political opponents, real or imagined. Even when all opposition was successfully neutered, East Timor -- and Aceh -- provided the Army with a tangible threat to justify its dual function. With the referendum in East Timor going against Indonesia, this legitimacy has evaporated. The system of governance has thus been deprived of an important pillar, and nobody ever planned for this eventuality.

The liberation of East Timor in 1975 firmly put the Army on a pedestal as defenders of Indonesia's sovereignty. For the next two decades the Army continued to fight various local elements within East Timor that wanted independence from the country.

Thousands of Indonesian soldiers have given up their lives to protect Indonesian interests in East Timor, leaving behind widows and orphans who cannot understand the callous haste with which Habibie agreed to the referendum. Habibie's move has definitely split the Army and shown it in an extremely poor light. While this drama has succeeded in showing Habibie courageously moving in the direction world leaders want him to move, Wiranto, his arch political rival, has emerged as a power-hungry general who has no control over his troops.

Could this wanton carnage and confusion have stemmed from the political ambitions of these two men -- Wiranto and Habibie? A possible power play between these men could be seen as follows: Wiranto holds the key to the presidential election -- the key to the crucial swing vote. In the days leading up to the referendum in East Timor, Megawati Soekarnoputri, chairwoman of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan), which was victorious in the June general election, took a stand on the East Timor issue that was diametrically opposed to Habibie's stand, prompting Wiranto to cozy up to PDI Perjuangan. Megawati's stand came against the backdrop of a faction in the ruling Golkar Party voicing opposition to Habibie's presidential nomination.

The Bank Bali scandal added decibels to the calls for Habibie's resignation. Deserted and without allies, Habibie was left with little to choose from. In a desperate attempt, Habibie's final gambit was a classic, self-destructive endgame that would split the ranks of the Army, clip Wiranto's growing ambitions and, at the same time, portray Habibie as a freethinking and just-minded liberal.

Against the backdrop of the East Timor referendum, Habibie has all but destroyed his political future, and in turn removed from its pedestal the Army and checked the ambitions of Wiranto.

Whatever the scenario, the net result is that the clock has been set back for Indonesia not only in terms of economic recovery and reform, but also in terms of international credibility. Confusion and insecurity reign supreme and the future seems fraught with uncertainty. While it is easy to pontificate with the benefit of hindsight, the time has now come for a strong, clean and decisive civilian body of governance to emerge and seize the opportunity to lead Indonesia from this darkness.

The Jakarta-based writer is a commentator on economic and political affairs.