A ripple that became a tsunami

A ripple that became a tsunami

By Sidesh Kaul

JAKARTA (JP): President B.J. Habibie is a cornered man. In a
quick reversal made under the burden of mounting international
pressure, he hastily called a press conference on Sept. 12 at the
Presidential Palace in Jakarta and checked the growing influence
of the Army in full view of the world by agreeing to
international peacekeepers in East Timor.

In January of this year, Habibie agreed to hold a referendum
on autonomy for East Timor, in what many saw as a risky gamble.
The ballot was conducted successfully under the aegis of the
United Nations Mission in East Timor (UNAMET) and the protection
of the Indonesian armed forces. The result of the ballot, as
announced by UNAMET, indicated the majority of the East Timorese
rejected autonomy, or, in other words, wanted independence. All
hell broke loose shortly afterward when pro-Indonesian militias,
in connivance with the Indonesian armed forces, used mindless and
brutal violence to voice their frustration.

While some critics may say that in compromising the security
and integrity of the nation, Habibie committed political suicide,
the fact often goes unnoticed that Habibie has done a service by
showing the whole world that in a fledgling democracy without the
proper democratic infrastructure and institutions, the armed
forces has a major role.

Here was a President who was unpopular, uncertain of his
political future and beleaguered by a multitude of forces both at
home and abroad. Everybody knew the East Timor issue was bound to
create factions within the government, the armed forces and the
polity.

The Indonesian people themselves are divided on this issue.
There was and is no consensus among the various political parties
on the issue of East Timor. By agreeing to the referendum,
Habibie risks not having the support of the legislature when the
results of the referendum come up for ratification before the
People's Consultative Assembly.

Moreover, there was a persistent chorus of demands from
various countries to hold the ballot, as well as threats of
punitive economic isolation. The reasons for holding the ballot
were compelling. Habibie knew which way the vote was going to go
and yet he chose to forge ahead with the referendum. Why did he
do this? Was he overcome by a sudden surge of democratic
adrenalin that propelled him into this courageous step? Or was
this a desperate attempt for political survival, with the lives
of the East Timorese and the collective pride of the Indonesian
people mere sacrificial pawns? These questions will be debated at
length in the days to come.

East Timor is a sensitive issue in Indonesia. For the last 25
years, children have grown up learning about this province which
was "liberated" from the Portuguese by brave Indonesian soldiers.
This act of liberation itself, over the years, has been imprinted
on the psyche of every Indonesian as a just and righteous act
against cruel and exploitative colonizers. After several
centuries of exploitation, some Indonesians view the current
sympathetic noises made by the Portuguese as hypocritical
repentance, while others view it as a sophisticated vendetta.

This is part of the East Timor psycho-cultural baggage that
cannot be ignored if one is to find a lasting solution to this
territory. The "liberation" of East Timor is naturally part of
the legend that has been drilled into the rank and file of the
Army. To overturn the magic of this legend overnight is a tall
order and any attempts made to force a change in belief would
lead to chaos. This is precisely what has happened and the
concern is that this chaos might grow in dimensions and take
newer forms in the days to come.

Gen. Wiranto has emerged from the Timor situation with his
reputation in tatters and some of the credibility he earned in
the early days of the reform movement irreversibly lost. The
Indonesian Army that once stood like a veritable juggernaut
controlling every facet of Indonesian life, now cringes at
diatribes and threats from Mary Robinson of the UN High
Commissioner for Human Rights. From the outside the Army appears
demoralized, confused and leaderless, and the chorus of critics
that want the Army to be banished from the political theater is
growing to a crescendo.

The East Timor issue has caused nationalistic sections within
the Indonesian polity to take an anti-Western stance. Recent
history is witness to the fact that Indonesia's past anti-Western
postures have had disastrous consequences for the economy. The
concern here is that ordinary Indonesians, cornered and confused
by the plethora of negativity, would fall prey to the temptations
of populist jingoism and unwittingly retard their own chances for
revival.

The list of problems seems never ending. An unresolved Bank
Bali scandal that appears to get more complicated with each
passing day; the suspension of aid by the International Monetary
Fund and the World Bank; the threat of trade sanctions from large
trading nations; weak leadership; a divided Army; a divided
nation; squabbling political parties; the distant rumblings of
the Aceh secessionist movement.

There is great concern on the backlash all this could have on
Indonesia's economic recovery. With the crescendo of scathing
condemnation pouring in from all quarters, Indonesia runs the
risk of being classified alongside pariah nations. This is
something the proud Indonesian people would find hard to stomach
because they were never part of the country's decision-making
process (or lack of it) in the first place.

The carnage in East Timor and its economic and political
fallout is the result of machinations and maneuverings at the
highest levels, by the political elite who have unhesitatingly
sacrificed national pride at the altar of political expediency.
The fallout from East Timor threatens to reach epic proportions.
The ripple has become a tsunami.

During the New Order regime, Soeharto successfully exploited
the dual function of the Army to neutralize all political
opponents, real or imagined. Even when all opposition was
successfully neutered, East Timor -- and Aceh -- provided the
Army with a tangible threat to justify its dual function. With
the referendum in East Timor going against Indonesia, this
legitimacy has evaporated. The system of governance has thus been
deprived of an important pillar, and nobody ever planned for this
eventuality.

The liberation of East Timor in 1975 firmly put the Army on a
pedestal as defenders of Indonesia's sovereignty. For the next
two decades the Army continued to fight various local elements
within East Timor that wanted independence from the country.

Thousands of Indonesian soldiers have given up their lives to
protect Indonesian interests in East Timor, leaving behind widows
and orphans who cannot understand the callous haste with which
Habibie agreed to the referendum. Habibie's move has definitely
split the Army and shown it in an extremely poor light. While
this drama has succeeded in showing Habibie courageously moving
in the direction world leaders want him to move, Wiranto, his
arch political rival, has emerged as a power-hungry general who
has no control over his troops.

Could this wanton carnage and confusion have stemmed from the
political ambitions of these two men -- Wiranto and Habibie? A
possible power play between these men could be seen as follows:
Wiranto holds the key to the presidential election -- the key to
the crucial swing vote. In the days leading up to the referendum
in East Timor, Megawati Soekarnoputri, chairwoman of the
Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan), which
was victorious in the June general election, took a stand on the
East Timor issue that was diametrically opposed to Habibie's
stand, prompting Wiranto to cozy up to PDI Perjuangan. Megawati's
stand came against the backdrop of a faction in the ruling
Golkar Party voicing opposition to Habibie's presidential
nomination.

The Bank Bali scandal added decibels to the calls for
Habibie's resignation. Deserted and without allies, Habibie was
left with little to choose from. In a desperate attempt,
Habibie's final gambit was a classic, self-destructive endgame
that would split the ranks of the Army, clip Wiranto's growing
ambitions and, at the same time, portray Habibie as a
freethinking and just-minded liberal.

Against the backdrop of the East Timor referendum, Habibie has
all but destroyed his political future, and in turn removed from
its pedestal the Army and checked the ambitions of Wiranto.

Whatever the scenario, the net result is that the clock has
been set back for Indonesia not only in terms of economic
recovery and reform, but also in terms of international
credibility. Confusion and insecurity reign supreme and the
future seems fraught with uncertainty. While it is easy to
pontificate with the benefit of hindsight, the time has now come
for a strong, clean and decisive civilian body of governance to
emerge and seize the opportunity to lead Indonesia from this
darkness.

The Jakarta-based writer is a commentator on economic and
political affairs.