A new political map in the making

A new political map in the making

Provided that the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) can
consolidate its masses of supporters, it is not inconceivable
that the party will emerge a main contender to dominant political
forces such as Golkar and the National Mandate Party (PAN). Thus,
when word got around that the People's Awakening Party (PKB),
which was established by supporters of Nahdlatul Ulama chairman
Abdurrahman Wahid, intended to support or even form a coalition
with the PDI under Megawati Soekarnoputri's leadership, Golkar
started considering the possibility of forming a coalition with
Amien Rais' National Mandate Party and Yusril Ihza Mahendra's
Crescent Star Party (PBB).

Such an "ideal" scenario opens the possibility of two major
political forces emerging in next year's elections. The first
would consist of a PDI Megawati-PKB alliance plus possibly a
number of smaller ethnically and non-Islamic religion-based
parties as a coalition based on a spirit of dissent. The second
would comprise Golkar, PAN, PBB and some smaller Moslem-based
parties as an establishment-based coalition.

The United Development Party (PPP) could become a deterrent
force with sufficient room to maneuver. After all, not all Moslem
politicians feel very comfortable about the composition and
platform of either the PAN or PKB. The least ideal -- but highly
possible -- scenario would be that the existing parties will lack
the time and the magnanimity to comprise and speak in a
collective voice pending the 1999 general election.

A further handicap is that none of the currently existing
political parties can boast a leadership powerful enough to act
as an effective unifying force and build a strong consensus --
not to mention the various independent pressure groups and moral
movements such as the Barisan Nasional as well as other, often
militant, players who are out to rock the status quo and
dislodge the establishment.

-- Republika, Jakarta