A new political map in the making

Provided that the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) can consolidate its masses of supporters, it is not inconceivable that the party will emerge a main contender to dominant political forces such as Golkar and the National Mandate Party (PAN). Thus, when word got around that the People's Awakening Party (PKB), which was established by supporters of Nahdlatul Ulama chairman Abdurrahman Wahid, intended to support or even form a coalition with the PDI under Megawati Soekarnoputri's leadership, Golkar started considering the possibility of forming a coalition with Amien Rais' National Mandate Party and Yusril Ihza Mahendra's Crescent Star Party (PBB).

Such an "ideal" scenario opens the possibility of two major political forces emerging in next year's elections. The first would consist of a PDI Megawati-PKB alliance plus possibly a number of smaller ethnically and non-Islamic religion-based parties as a coalition based on a spirit of dissent. The second would comprise Golkar, PAN, PBB and some smaller Moslem-based parties as an establishment-based coalition.

The United Development Party (PPP) could become a deterrent force with sufficient room to maneuver. After all, not all Moslem politicians feel very comfortable about the composition and platform of either the PAN or PKB. The least ideal -- but highly possible -- scenario would be that the existing parties will lack the time and the magnanimity to comprise and speak in a collective voice pending the 1999 general election.

A further handicap is that none of the currently existing political parties can boast a leadership powerful enough to act as an effective unifying force and build a strong consensus -- not to mention the various independent pressure groups and moral movements such as the Barisan Nasional as well as other, often militant, players who are out to rock the status quo and dislodge the establishment.

-- Republika, Jakarta