A new Palestinian leader?

At least it can now be said that U.S. President George W. Bush has a plan to resolve the continuing conflict in the Middle East. A speech delivered by Bush last Monday, at first reading, does give the impression that the United States is serious about playing the role of peacemaker in the Middle East.

However, upon closer inspection the speech suggests that Washington is again passing the buck; most of the onus has been placed on the Palestinians.

The American president's message to the Palestinians can be summed up as follows: find yourselves a new leader, clean your house of corruption and the U.S. will support the establishment of an interim Palestinian state based on a three-year time frame.

Apparently, a piece of intelligence delivered to the White House just before the final draft of the president's speech was completed toughened Bush's stance toward Yasser Arafat. According to this intelligence, the Palestinian leader apparently had given financial support to the group that claimed responsibility for a bus stop bombing.

This was the reason, the public was told, the president's speech did not outline some follow-up steps to be taken. For instance, dispatching Secretary of State Colin Powell to the Middle East for a fresh round of consultations.

Although Bush did include some encouraging remarks for the Palestinians ("It is untenable for the Palestinians to live in squalor and occupation"), he failed to warn Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon that his government's policy on settlements could only worsen the conflict.

Other factors may have influenced the final draft of Bush's speech, which left the impression that the U.S. was only pressuring the Palestinians. After all, the thesis that no workable solution can be reached to resolve the Israel-Palestine conflict as long as Arafat is in charge is vintage Ariel Sharon.

Did the upcoming mid-term elections in the U.S., which could shift the political make-up of Congress either way, prevent the Republican Bush from talking tough to Israel? The Jewish vote in modern American politics is still a significant factor that the Republican Party cannot afford to ignore.

It remains to be seen what the U.S. and Israel will do if Arafat is reelected in Palestinian presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for next January. Precisely because President Bush has so strongly suggested that Arafat should be replaced, a psychology of defiance among the Palestinians could assure his reelection.

The Israelis and the Palestinians are now trapped in a deadly and vicious circle. Sharon's Operation Defense Shield, ruthlessly executed, has quite successfully destroyed the organizational infrastructure of various Palestinian militant action groups, allowing scores of would-be suicide bombers to be intercepted.

On the other hand, the Palestinian militants have significantly improved their deadly efficiency. It seems the lead time from recruitment and target planning, to the execution of suicide bombings has been drastically reduced.

This increased violence has narrowed the space in which moderates from both sides can work toward a compromise solution.