A misplaced bet on Khin Nyunt

A misplaced bet on Khin Nyunt

The Nation/Asia News Network, Bangkok

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has gone
out of its way to protect Myanmar in regional and international
arenas, believing -- wrongly, of course -- that peer pressure
might in some way help transform this dictatorial pariah-state
into an open society governed by the rule of law. In the seven
years that have passed since Myanmar joined the grouping as a
member, ASEAN has repeatedly staked its reputation on defending
Myanmar's dismal rights record. In exchange, the leaders of the
military junta in Rangoon have exploited ASEAN's creditability
and good will and have stonewalled sustained international
pressure to reform.

Myanmar's biggest triumph came early this month on the eve of
the Asia-Europe Meeting (Asem) in Hanoi. The country's long-
awaited admission to the meeting was a major success for Rangoon,
tantamount to full recognition of the SPDC and its apparatus and
methods.

It would have been na?ve for the international community to
assume that the junta would immediately become a nicer, more
democratic governing body, dedicated to national reconciliation,
in exchange for its admission to the forum.

It is unbelievable that both ASEAN and the EU have for so long
allowed the Burmese junta to get away with the sort of political
oppression for which it is widely and resoundingly criticised.
The fate of opposition party leader Aung San Suu Kyi is no longer
even a key issue for ASEAN or the EU.

In a further irony, ASEAN continues to emphasise the process
of national reconciliation in Myanmar, though without including
Suu Kyi, a Nobel Peace laureate and leading local democracy
advocate. What kind of thinking is that?

For years, ASEAN has pretended not to hear her voice, denying
her a role in the future of Myanmar in favour of the dictatorial
military regime that has run Myanmar since 1988. If anything
happens to this crucial Burmese voice in the days and weeks to
come, ASEAN and the EU will only have themselves to blame.

It surely came as a surprise for both ASEAN and the EU when
ex-prime minister Khin Nyunt suddenly fell out of favour this
week with Rangoon's leading strongman, General Than Shwe. Only
now are the members of ASEAN expressing any sort of concern about
the future of Myanmar's path to democracy.

The reason is simple -- ASEAN placed a heavy bet that only
Khin Nyunt would be able to transform Myanmar. He had been given
all kinds of support since he assumed the premiership in August
of last year, even though ASEAN knew full well that as a leading
member of the junta, Khin Nyunt was subject to the sort of power
plays in which all of the Burmese generals engage, using each
other as fronts to tighten their grips on power and weaken that
of their opponents. So far, it has been a win-win formula for the
junta leaders.

To Thailand, the dismissal of Khin Nyunt appears to have a
deeper impact. More than Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra would
like to admit, of course, the personal connections and burgeoning
business interests between the two countries have suffered
because of events of the past several days.

The allegations of corruption thrown at Khin Nyunt are a clear
indication of the increasingly cosy relations between him,
Thailand's premier and his business empire. It was no accident
that the house arrest occurred at the same time as a Cabinet
meeting in Tak. Thaksin and his spokesman suddenly behaved as if
they were intimate with the developments inside Myanmar, as if
they had prior knowledge.

However, Thaksin was simply trying to conceal the fact that he
had misjudged Myanmar. The prime minister will pay dearly for his
mishandling of Myanmar, as will Thailand as a whole.

The changes that took place in Rangoon on Wednesday will have
far-reaching repercussions on Thailand's policy towards Myanmar
and the whole range of economic and trading arrangements between
the two countries. The change of leadership in Myanmar could lead
to attempts to further discredit Khin Nyunt, which may entail
disclosure of all sorts of shady business deals that had been
sealed with foreign leaders or businessmen.

As for the junta, this latest escapade proves once again that
the bag of tricks it uses to manipulate ASEAN and the wider
international community is quite deep indeed.