A misplaced bet on Khin Nyunt

The Nation/Asia News Network, Bangkok

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has gone out of its way to protect Myanmar in regional and international arenas, believing -- wrongly, of course -- that peer pressure might in some way help transform this dictatorial pariah-state into an open society governed by the rule of law. In the seven years that have passed since Myanmar joined the grouping as a member, ASEAN has repeatedly staked its reputation on defending Myanmar's dismal rights record. In exchange, the leaders of the military junta in Rangoon have exploited ASEAN's creditability and good will and have stonewalled sustained international pressure to reform.

Myanmar's biggest triumph came early this month on the eve of the Asia-Europe Meeting (Asem) in Hanoi. The country's long- awaited admission to the meeting was a major success for Rangoon, tantamount to full recognition of the SPDC and its apparatus and methods.

It would have been na?ve for the international community to assume that the junta would immediately become a nicer, more democratic governing body, dedicated to national reconciliation, in exchange for its admission to the forum.

It is unbelievable that both ASEAN and the EU have for so long allowed the Burmese junta to get away with the sort of political oppression for which it is widely and resoundingly criticised. The fate of opposition party leader Aung San Suu Kyi is no longer even a key issue for ASEAN or the EU.

In a further irony, ASEAN continues to emphasise the process of national reconciliation in Myanmar, though without including Suu Kyi, a Nobel Peace laureate and leading local democracy advocate. What kind of thinking is that?

For years, ASEAN has pretended not to hear her voice, denying her a role in the future of Myanmar in favour of the dictatorial military regime that has run Myanmar since 1988. If anything happens to this crucial Burmese voice in the days and weeks to come, ASEAN and the EU will only have themselves to blame.

It surely came as a surprise for both ASEAN and the EU when ex-prime minister Khin Nyunt suddenly fell out of favour this week with Rangoon's leading strongman, General Than Shwe. Only now are the members of ASEAN expressing any sort of concern about the future of Myanmar's path to democracy.

The reason is simple -- ASEAN placed a heavy bet that only Khin Nyunt would be able to transform Myanmar. He had been given all kinds of support since he assumed the premiership in August of last year, even though ASEAN knew full well that as a leading member of the junta, Khin Nyunt was subject to the sort of power plays in which all of the Burmese generals engage, using each other as fronts to tighten their grips on power and weaken that of their opponents. So far, it has been a win-win formula for the junta leaders.

To Thailand, the dismissal of Khin Nyunt appears to have a deeper impact. More than Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra would like to admit, of course, the personal connections and burgeoning business interests between the two countries have suffered because of events of the past several days.

The allegations of corruption thrown at Khin Nyunt are a clear indication of the increasingly cosy relations between him, Thailand's premier and his business empire. It was no accident that the house arrest occurred at the same time as a Cabinet meeting in Tak. Thaksin and his spokesman suddenly behaved as if they were intimate with the developments inside Myanmar, as if they had prior knowledge.

However, Thaksin was simply trying to conceal the fact that he had misjudged Myanmar. The prime minister will pay dearly for his mishandling of Myanmar, as will Thailand as a whole.

The changes that took place in Rangoon on Wednesday will have far-reaching repercussions on Thailand's policy towards Myanmar and the whole range of economic and trading arrangements between the two countries. The change of leadership in Myanmar could lead to attempts to further discredit Khin Nyunt, which may entail disclosure of all sorts of shady business deals that had been sealed with foreign leaders or businessmen.

As for the junta, this latest escapade proves once again that the bag of tricks it uses to manipulate ASEAN and the wider international community is quite deep indeed.