A declaration of war

President George W. Bush's speech before a meeting of the UN General Assembly was indeed an effective performance. His team of speech writers must have acquired by now a feeling for just the right phrases and the perfect cadences for the president. His main argument in the speech was that Iraq has defied a series of UN resolutions obliging Saddam Hussein's regime to open itself up to a team of UN inspectors, tasked with enforcing the disarmament of weapons of mass destruction in that country.

In 1998, however, Baghdad expelled a UN inspection team and has since shut its doors to international arms inspectors. Baghdad said it was only willing to discuss the matter of arms inspections on the condition that it be linked to other issues, such as the oil embargo and the patrols over Iraqi airspace.

President Bush, in his speech to the General Assembly, also reiterated that the U.S. was willing to cooperate with the UN Security Council in drafting and pushing through a new resolution that would oblige Iraq to submit to an international inspection regime. If the UN should fail to enforce its resolutions or Iraq refuses to comply with them, then U.S. action would be unavoidable.

President Bush's willingness to make use of the UN and its mechanisms was a sort of political victory for Secretary of State Colin Powell and his supporters, who apparently have convinced the White House that two of the permanent members of the Security Council, Russia and China, could be persuaded to forego their veto rights on action in Iraq and at least adopt a position of abstention.

Or Secretary of State Powell and friends may have persuaded President Bush that if or when the UN fails to change Iraq's stance on arms inspections, this would more than give the U.S. justification for unilateral U.S. action.

At this stage we do not see that war can be avoided. The stark reality is that in both capitals in question, Washington and Baghdad, the psychological momentum toward military confrontation is unstoppable. We simply cannot see that a leader such as Saddam Hussein, who has been in his job for decades and has developed quite a sizable ego, could accept virtual surrender. In Washington, with the midterm congressional elections coming up in early November, it would be difficult for President Bush not to adopt a firm stand.

What is most important in all of this is for us to consider and prepare Indonesia's position when the military confrontation takes place. First, we would suggest that Indonesia initiate an informal consultation among the 10 member countries of ASEAN. The purpose would not be to adopt a decision or reach a consensus, but to canvass each other's positions. Quite clearly, Singapore and the Philippines will support the U.S. military action. The benefit of such a consultation would be that ASEAN members could at least acquire an overall view of their respective positions.

More importantly, however, President Megawati Soekarnoputri should consult with all the leading social and political groupings and urge them to maintain Indonesia's national unity if war in Iraq occurs. She should stress, unequivocally, that the military confrontation must not be exploited to create agitation along religious lines.

Indonesia should oppose any U.S. attacks on the principle that the country does not consent to the settlement of international problems by force. In this respect, Vice President Hamzah Haz should be reminded that, as the number two person in this republic, he too should stress the importance of maintaining national unity. He should be reminded that he should not exploit any action in Iraq for the interests of his party, which apparently is facing some internal problems.

In the short term, a war in Iraq will provide a windfall for Indonesia, with a significant jump in oil and gas prices expected. On the other hand, we can also expect that international trade and global capital markets will be affected by uncertainties that will not benefit Indonesia's still shaky economy. All in all, this means that the government must work very hard to cope with the consequences and uncertainties caused by war in Iraq.