A crucial period for Indonesia

A crucial period for Indonesia

Indonesia enters a crucial period next week. It is when the
1,000-member People's Consultative Assembly meets to discuss the
political direction of the country.

It will not be easy for President Jusuf Habibie, who is trying
to steer his political reform package through during the four-day
session. It is not that President Habibie will run into severe
opposition within the Assembly, which still has a substantial
number of supporters of the ousted president Soeharto, who lost
control of the country after more than 30 years.

President Habibie will try for a middle course that would
certainly be an advance on the political system that now prevails
in Indonesia but would stop short of a sharp, drastic change. In
this way he will try not to antagonize the Soeharto supporters in
the Assembly.

But such tempered political reform is hardly likely to satisfy
opposition political groups, and especially the students who were
largely responsible for Soeharto's fall.

The students in particular are suspicious not only of the
Soeharto supporters in the Assembly but of President Habibie
himself, whom they see as one of Soeharto's creatures. If the
opposition groups and the student activists believe that
President Habibie is trying to effect reforms that will suit him
if he decides to contest the presidency next year, it could be
the beginning of more political and social unrest in Indonesia.

Obviously suspecting the possibilities of open revolt in the
event that President Habibie merely tinkers with the system
without really advancing democracy as widely demanded, Armed
Forces Commander General Wiranto urged all sections of society to
support the Assembly. That seemed like a gentle warning to any
potential opposition that the Army will not tolerate more unrest.
Another opposition-military confrontation will be extremely
detrimental to a country already suffering from economic burdens.

-- The Hong Kong Standard