A crucial period for Indonesia

Indonesia enters a crucial period next week. It is when the 1,000-member People's Consultative Assembly meets to discuss the political direction of the country.

It will not be easy for President Jusuf Habibie, who is trying to steer his political reform package through during the four-day session. It is not that President Habibie will run into severe opposition within the Assembly, which still has a substantial number of supporters of the ousted president Soeharto, who lost control of the country after more than 30 years.

President Habibie will try for a middle course that would certainly be an advance on the political system that now prevails in Indonesia but would stop short of a sharp, drastic change. In this way he will try not to antagonize the Soeharto supporters in the Assembly.

But such tempered political reform is hardly likely to satisfy opposition political groups, and especially the students who were largely responsible for Soeharto's fall.

The students in particular are suspicious not only of the Soeharto supporters in the Assembly but of President Habibie himself, whom they see as one of Soeharto's creatures. If the opposition groups and the student activists believe that President Habibie is trying to effect reforms that will suit him if he decides to contest the presidency next year, it could be the beginning of more political and social unrest in Indonesia.

Obviously suspecting the possibilities of open revolt in the event that President Habibie merely tinkers with the system without really advancing democracy as widely demanded, Armed Forces Commander General Wiranto urged all sections of society to support the Assembly. That seemed like a gentle warning to any potential opposition that the Army will not tolerate more unrest. Another opposition-military confrontation will be extremely detrimental to a country already suffering from economic burdens.

-- The Hong Kong Standard