A calculated defense

In the current political context, President B.J. Habibie's state of the nation address on Monday came across as the treatise of someone desperately trying to shore up his flagging popularity. Who can blame him? The credibility and legitimacy of his administration are in tatters after the routing of his Golkar Party in the June elections. If that was not enough, Golkar, standing alone to buttress his power, now appears ready to pull the rug from under him following the Bank Bali scandal, which implicates him and his close associates.

Knowing that his chances in the November presidential election are in jeopardy, Habibie used the speech on the eve of Independence Day to try to go over the head of the House of Representatives and reach out to the people. He highlighted his achievements while carefully concealing or concocting excuses for his failures, of which there are many. A national day speech is traditionally an occasion for heads of state to present their visions for their country. But with less than three months left in power and with a large part of the nation rejecting him through their votes in June, Habibie used this occasion in a shameless bid to save his reputation and presidency.

To the uninitiated, Habibie's grandstanding may have seemed convincing. He may have won over the uninformed by declaring that he and his administration fought valiantly to lift the country out of its economic and political predicaments, which he brushed aside as the legacy of former president Soeharto, his mentor. To the discerning -- and Indonesians today are far more critical than they were under Soeharto -- the speech was more notable not for the inventory of Habibie's "successes", but for his deft sidestepping of crucial issues facing the nation. To them, Habibie's real message, of fitting the national political agenda to suit his goals in the November election, came across loud and clear.

The speech was essentially a rehash of policy statements made by him and his ministers over the course of the year. It contained nothing new, as even some Golkar leaders were willing to admit. His "accelerated evolution" theory has been explained umpteen times, but it is essentially his convoluted excuse to ward off criticism of the slow pace of reform under his government.

He avoided the pressing issues of the day, such as the Bank Bali scandal, the slow corruption investigation of Soeharto and recurrent violence in Aceh, Ambon and East Timor. He selected economic indicators to suit his needs but conveniently omitted negative indicators, such as declining exports and falling direct foreign investment. His assertion that foreign investors are on their way back into the country, based on the resurgent stock market, reflected either his ignorance -- for these are speculative investors who will dump their shares at the first signs of trouble -- or an attempt to deceive the public.

His biggest oversight is, not surprisingly, his chief weakness: the question of justice. He was uncharacteristically passionate in his defense of the Soeharto investigation, citing the need to respect the former strongman's human rights. Yet there was no recognition of the injustices and human rights abuses committed not only by Soeharto and his regime but, as in the case of Aceh, by his own regime.

Given his known ambition for the presidency, virtually every act that Habibie does in public from now to November must be seen in that context. The speech on Monday is no exception. It was as much a campaign speech as a defense treatise for acts done and not done. It was also a general rehearsal for his big day in November when he will present his statement of accountability before the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR).

The next MPR, however, will be filled with members very different from the accommodating group he faced last November. This new breed, or most of them, was elected in free and fair elections. Armed with the knowledge that they must be truly accountable to the people, it will be their task to ensure that Habibie also is made accountable for every blunder committed during his short transitory presidency.