A backlash against Golkar

With less than a fortnight to go before the ballots are cast in what could easily be the most crucial general election in this country's history, things do not seem to be looking too well for the erstwhile all-powerful ruling party, Golkar.

Obvious obstacles on Golkar's road to a possible victory are the two separate, but related, alliances forged between opposition parties during the past week. The first was between the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan), the National Awakening Party (PKB) and the National Mandate Party (PAN); the second between PAN, the United Development Party (PPP) and the Justice Party (PK).

Though predicting future political developments is always a tricky business, many observers believe that those two alliances will be strong enough to block Golkar from once again becoming the dominant political force in this country. Analysts also argue that Golkar could very likely be prevented from garnering -- together with its allies -- enough votes to renominate B.J. Habibie to the presidency for another term in the upcoming general session of the People's Consultative Assembly.

Neither does displeasure with Golkar and Habibie seem to be restricted to the elite layers in the opposition camp alone. Attacks directed at Golkar personnel and property in Jakarta and elsewhere -- ostensibly by people who have no clear political affinity with the party -- suggests that feelings of resentment against Golkar, still linger among the public at large. Campaigning for the general election has provided an ideal outlet for the manifestation of a backlash against Golkar, one of the major backers of the old regime.

In this climate, it is easy for those in the opposition camp to congratulate themselves on their perceived accomplishment in restraining Golkar and to become complacent. They need to be reminded that Golkar is not about to let itself give up its objective to retain its dominant position without a fight. After all, it can be assumed that having been in positions of power for more than 30 years as members or associates of a corrupt authoritarian regime, all too many people who belong or have belonged to the old structure, have a sincere interest in perpetuating the status quo.

Hence, there is no reason to be surprised at reports from the Election Supervisory Committee that in many regions of the country, members of the bureaucracy continue to use their positions of authority -- as well as public facilities under their control -- to coerce people into voting for Golkar. The ruling party still controls huge amounts of money for campaign purposes -- or, as some people allege, for buying votes if necessary. Most radio and television stations are also controlled by individuals who in the past were close to the Soeharto family.

Alliances between pro-reform parties can certainly help to keep the reform drive on course. Unfortunately, there are signs the two coalitions established in recent days may not be strong or cohesive enough to be able to withstand a countermove from the pro-status quo camp. For example, there has been disagreement in the pro-reform ranks as to the wisdom of PAN's move to associate itself with two different tactical alliances -- with PDI Perjuangan and PKB on the one hand and PPP and PK on the other.

Obviously, though, with the crucial House and presidential elections approaching, the all important thing for the reform- minded parties to keep in mind is that they might well lose not just the battle, but the entire war against the entrenched status quo unless they manage to remain faithful to their common goal and not let themselves become divided.