2004 election have it all: Size and complexity

2004 election have it all: Size and complexity

Alan Wall, Project Manager, International Foundation for
Election Systems (IFES), Jakarta

The 2004 Indonesian elections are some of the most complex and
challenging elections to have faced any democracy. Let alone a
new democracy such as Indonesia's.

The challenges are not only those of size -- although the
statistics are daunting to even the most hardened election
administrator or politician. There will be at least two and
likely three election days between April 5 and Sept. 20, 2004.

These elections will be held in close to 2,000 electoral
districts. There are potentially up to 475,000 candidates that
could be nominated by the 24 parties contesting the April 5
national (DPR), provincial and regency/city (DPRD) legislative
elections. Parties and candidates will be competing for the votes
of 143 million voters.

For each election day, around 500,000 voting stations will be
needed, whose 3.5 million staff and one million security officers
will need to be recruited and trained. Overall, around 900
million ballot papers will need to be printed, distributed and
retrieved.

The logistical challenges of these huge numbers are
exacerbated by Indonesian geography, and the quality of
communications infrastructure. Unlike many business models, for
an election the difficult locations cannot be avoided: All areas
must be serviced equally.

Adding to the challenges and complexity are the changes to the
election framework mandated by the amendments to the Indonesian
Constitution, and the passing of new laws governing Political
Parties (late 2002), General Elections, Presidential Elections
and the Constitutional Court (2003).

The passage of election laws barely one year before the
elections has left voters, election administrators and political
parties with a relatively short period in which to absorb wide
ranging changes to the frameworks for political representation
and election administration.

Whenever a new election system is introduced, the degree of
difficulty of the election is significantly increased. For the
2004 elections, Indonesia has to adjust to not one, but three,
new election systems: An Open List Proportional Representation
system for the DPR and DPRDs; a Single Non Transferable Vote
system for the new Regional Representative Council (DPD); and a
Two Round Majoritarian system for the Presidency.

While these new election systems may facilitate better
representation for the Indonesian people, each is more complex
than the systems previously used. Each requires a different
method of voting, and of determining the winning candidates. The
resulting voter information and education campaign requirements,
and staff training needs, are immense.

For the first time in DPR and DPRD elections, voters may vote
for a candidate, as well as for a political party as in the past.
The voter must vote for a party, and may vote for a candidate.
However, candidates' positions on parties' candidate lists is
still likely to be the important factor in many districts in
determining which candidates are elected. This is a complex
overall message to impart to the people, and a necessary one to
minimize disputes over election results.

At the same time voters are being informed that for DPR and
DPRD elections they must vote for a party, and may vote for a
candidate, they must also understand that when they vote at the
election for the DPD, they must only vote for a single candidate.

There is thus large potential for confusion between DPR/DPRD,
and DPD voting methods, which needs to be addressed by voter
education programs. This need has been highlighted by recent
election simulations, in which very large numbers of ballots for
the DPR and DPRD have been invalidly marked.

In the subsequent direct election for the presidency, voters
will vote for a Presidential/Vice Presidential candidate
"ticket". Complex criteria determine whether a candidate "ticket"
has won the election in the first round to be held on July 5. If
there is no first round winner, a second round run-off between
the two leading candidate "tickets" is to be held on Sept. 20.

Recent survey research strongly indicates over 90 percent of
the population intends to vote at the 2004 elections. A challenge
to voter educators will be to maintain this enthusiasm through
three election days in six months. Especially for the second
round of the Presidential elections, as many voters will not have
a political party that they would normally support, still
competing.

Additionally, the Indonesian public still has to be educated
about the new and revised institutions being created. For
example, current survey data indicates that around one third or
less of the Indonesian public is aware of the DPD. Only around
six in ten voters know that in 2004 they will be directly
electing the President.

In 2004, for the first time in Indonesia, elections will be
managed by a General Election Commission (KPU) that is
independent, nationally hierarchical, and permanent at national,
provincial and regency/city levels.

The KPU has built a reputation with the public as a credible
and effective institution. Recent polling by IFES shows that the
KPU is known by around 60 percent of the Indonesian public --
substantially more people than are aware of other institutions
such as Komnas HAM, the State Audit Board (BPK), and the
Ombudsman.

Of those aware of the KPU, 69 percent were satisfied with its
work, as against only 15 percent who were dissatisfied. This is
by far the highest level of public satisfaction with any of the
government institutions surveyed in this poll.

The Indonesian people are also relatively optimistic that
their KPU is an impartial organization that will manage the 2004
elections in a fair and honest manner. Sixty-five percent of all
respondents to the IFES poll believed the 2004 elections will be
fair and honest (compared to 15 percent who did not), whilst 64
percent of those who knew of the KPU regarded it as a neutral
organization (compared to 19 percent who did not).

Major challenges to the KPU's administrative capacities have
been confidently responded to. The determination of electoral
districts has proceeded smoothly, given the immensity of the
task. Since July 2003, the KPU has created close to 2000
electoral districts.

While the original very tight deadlines for this task have not
been met, its completion is a significant achievement.
Districting processes in advanced democracies, such as the U.S.
and Australia, take very much longer to determine a much smaller
number of districts.

Similarly, the verification of those political parties
eligible to contest the 2004 election, involving checking of
party branches and membership throughout Indonesia, has been
completed by the KPU close to the original schedule and using a
process that has been widely accepted.

Significant administrative challenges remain for the KPU.
These include the finalization of voter registration using new,
automated systems (one of the biggest scanning-based projects
attempted in the world); the procurement, distribution and
retrieval of election materials for three election days; and the
development and implementation Indonesia-wide of computerized
systems to collate centrally all election results from each
voting station.

These are the largest and most complex single day, nation-wide
elections attempted in any emerging democracy. So far,
preparations for the elections have progressed peacefully, and,
considering the volume of work, relatively to schedule. Much
remains to be done, however -- not only in administrative
preparations, but in preparing the Indonesian people for the
significant changes in their election processes and elected
institutions.