Mon, 07 Mar 2005
From: AFP

Nuclear deal with EU still possible, analysts say

Siavosh Ghazi, Agence France-Presse/Tehran

Despite its tough talk, Iran may yet accept a deal with the European Union (EU) to end its sensitive nuclear fuel work in return for political and trade incentives, according to prominent analysts.

But they said Iran's final decision on the question, currently the subject of intensive negotiations with Britain, France and Germany and arousing interest in the United States, is unlikely to come before crucial Iranian presidential elections in June.

"I think those negotiations are in limbo right now. I do not think any progress has been made because Iran has not decided yet whether it is prepared to accept limits on its enrichment program," explained Gary Samore, Director of Studies at London's International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of a nuclear technology conference in Tehran, Samore explained the Islamic regime was presented with a tough choice on whether to press on with its suspect nuclear program and face the consequences or else choose a path that would ease it relations with the West.

"The question is whether it will insist on completing its enrichment program and accept the risk of the Security Council taking actions," said Samore, a non-proliferation expert.

"In the run up to the presidential elections, I do not think any of the Iranian officials have any interest in showing any flexibility because they will be strongly criticized for giving away Iran's rights," he explained.

"So I think we have a period of time now when people are exploring different ideas. But I do not think political decisions have been made in Tehran about whether or not to really seek a diplomatic solution."

EU negotiators Britain, France and Germany are trying to convince Iran to dismantle nuclear fuel work which the United States says is part of a covert atomic weapons development, in return for economic and political rewards.

The Europeans see a halt in fuel cycle work, including enrichment, as the only way Iran can provide "objective guarantees" it will not use its atomic energy drive to military purposes.

But Iran insists its nuclear program is purely for civilian energy needs, and that its fuel cycle work is therefore permitted -- and indeed an "undeniable right" -- under the nuclear Non- Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

The country is also in the midst of a complex political transition, where reformists surrounding President Mohammad Khatami are being squeezed out and rival hardliners and conservatives are competing to replace them.

A conservative is seen as being almost certain of winning the presidency in June, but it remains far from certain whether it will be a hardliner -- such as former foreign minister Ali Akbar Velayati -- or a pragmatist, such as top cleric Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani or nuclear negotiator Hassan Rowhani.

With possible candidates such as Rafsanjani yet to declare whether they will even stand, the race -- and therefore Iran's future political direction -- is seen as still being wide open.

"But after the presidential elections, when there is a new president and a new administration, people might take a fresh look at the issue," explained Samore.

"So the question is whether the EU now with some help from Americans can offer enough incentives to convince Iran to suspend its enrichment long term."

Joseph Cirincione, senior associate and director for non- proliferation at the liberal Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said any deal would have to be a "win-win deal -- where Iran has to be able to come back to its people with victory."

Iran says the incentives on offer so far are not attractive but at the same time the Islamic republic does not want to be seen as "haggling". One crucial development would be if the U.S. came to the table, a step that could lead to an easing of a quarter of a century of hostility.

"I think right now Washington is considering a number of very modest steps that the United States can take to help. But what is important is that (U.S. President George W.) Bush has crossed a psychological threshold and accepted the principle that any agreement with the EU is going to have to include active American support," Samore said.

And he said that in addition "nobody in Washington thinks military action is a good option."

"There are still many many months of negotiations before reaching an agreement but the doors are now open for Iran to consider what it would want from the United States in exchange for accepting the limits on its enrichment program."





News Search/Filter
Transaction Rates
10 Dec 18
Buy
Sell
AED1
3,945.27
3,945.27
AFN1
191.01
191.01
ALL1
133.25
133.25
AMD1
29.86
29.86
ANG1
8,164.82
8,164.82
AOA1
46.82
46.82
ARS1
388.05
388.05
AUD1
10,405.53
10,405.53
AWG1
8,050.55
8,050.55
AZN1
8,511.57
8,511.57
BAM1
8,431.27
8,431.27
BBD1
7,245.48
7,245.48
BDT1
173.05
173.05
BGN1
8,452.70
8,452.70
BHD1
38,436.54
38,436.54
BIF1
8.11
8.11
BMD1
14,490.96
14,490.96
BND1
9,195.00
9,195.00
BOB1
2,096.99
2,096.99
BRL1
3,708.22
3,708.22
BSD1
14,490.96
14,490.96
BTC1
50,307,731
50,307,731
BTN1
204.70
204.70
BWP1
1,360.84
1,360.84
BYN1
6,796.56
6,796.56
BZD1
7,188.51
7,188.51
CAD1
10,871.18
10,871.18
CDF1
8.90
8.90
CHF1
14,638.39
14,638.39
CLF1
598,453.78
598,453.78
CLP1
21.47
21.47
CNH1
2,099.64
2,099.64
CNY1
2,107.56
2,107.56
COP1
4.55
4.55
CRC1
24.21
24.21
CUC1
14,490.96
14,490.96
CUP1
562.75
562.75
CVE1
149.12
149.12
CZK1
638.47
638.47
DJF1
81.40
81.40
DKK1
2,212.98
2,212.98
DOP1
288.12
288.12
DZD1
122.24
122.24
EGP1
810.00
810.00
ERN1
966.62
966.62
ETB1
516.66
516.66
EUR1
16,519.29
16,519.29
FJD1
6,857.47
6,857.47
FKP1
18,431.57
18,431.57
GBP1
18,431.57
18,431.57
GEL1
5,472.02
5,472.02
GGP1
18,431.57
18,431.57
GHS1
2,903.91
2,903.91
GIP1
18,431.57
18,431.57
GMD1
292.45
292.45
GNF1
1.59
1.59
GTQ1
1,875.48
1,875.48
GYD1
69.10
69.10
HKD1
1,853.93
1,853.93
HNL1
593.77
593.77
HRK1
2,234.87
2,234.87
HTG1
192.66
192.66
HUF1
51.10
51.10
IDR1
1.00
1.00
ILS1
3,882.34
3,882.34
IMP1
18,431.57
18,431.57
INR1
203.02
203.02
IQD1
12.17
12.17
IRR1
0.34
0.34
ISK1
119.01
119.01
JEP1
18,431.57
18,431.57
JMD1
114.06
114.06
JOD1
20,421.16
20,421.16
JPY1
128.79
128.79
KES1
141.47
141.47
KGS1
210.90
210.90
KHR1
3.60
3.60
KMF1
33.58
33.58
KPW1
16.10
16.10
KRW1
12.89
12.89
KWD1
47,664.02
47,664.02
KYD1
17,392.14
17,392.14
KZT1
39.09
39.09
LAK1
1.69
1.69
LBP1
9.60
9.60
LKR1
81.17
81.17
LRD1
91.68
91.68
LSL1
1,022.65
1,022.65
LYD1
10,375.47
10,375.47
MAD1
1,528.63
1,528.63
MDL1
841.22
841.22
MGA1
4.06
4.06
MKD1
268.19
268.19
MMK1
9.28
9.28
MNT1
5.90
5.90
MOP1
1,800.00
1,800.00
MRO1
40.59
40.59
MRU1
397.01
397.01
MUR1
421.25
421.25
MVR1
937.92
937.92
MWK1
19.60
19.60
MXN1
714.22
714.22
MYR1
3,477.97
3,477.97
MZN1
239.32
239.32
NAD1
1,022.65
1,022.65
NGN1
39.75
39.75
NIO1
447.04
447.04
NOK1
1,704.59
1,704.59
NPR1
127.93
127.93
NZD1
9,914.71
9,914.71
OMR1
37,644.23
37,644.23
PAB1
14,490.96
14,490.96
PEN1
4,303.81
4,303.81
PGK1
4,301.65
4,301.65
PHP1
274.86
274.86
PKR1
104.30
104.30
PLN1
3,848.72
3,848.72
PYG1
2.45
2.45
QAR1
3,979.94
3,979.94
RON1
3,553.10
3,553.10
RSD1
139.56
139.56
RUB1
218.11
218.11
RWF1
16.25
16.25
SAR1
3,862.40
3,862.40
SBD1
1,823.83
1,823.83
SCR1
1,062.82
1,062.82
SDG1
304.37
304.37
SEK1
1,602.73
1,602.73
SGD1
10,566.56
10,566.56
SHP1
18,431.57
18,431.57
SLL1
1.72
1.72
SOS1
25.05
25.05
SRD1
1,943.00
1,943.00
SSP1
111.24
111.24
STD1
0.68
0.68
STN1
673.99
673.99
SVC1
1,655.92
1,655.92
SYP1
28.15
28.15
SZL1
1,022.65
1,022.65
THB1
441.39
441.39
TJS1
1,537.35
1,537.35
TMT1
4,128.52
4,128.52
TND1
4,899.73
4,899.73
TOP1
6,326.47
6,326.47
TRY1
2,722.18
2,722.18
TTD1
2,149.85
2,149.85
TWD1
468.43
468.43
TZS1
6.30
6.30
UAH1
520.80
520.80
UGX1
3.87
3.87
USD1
14,490.96
14,490.96
UYU1
451.83
451.83
UZS1
1.74
1.74
VEF1
0.05
0.05
VND1
0.62
0.62
VUV1
131.01
131.01
WST1
5,557.92
5,557.92
XAF1
25.18
25.18
XAG1
211,705.28
211,705.28
XAU1
18,100,350.99
18,100,350.99
XCD1
5,361.95
5,361.95
XDR1
20,162.54
20,162.54
XOF1
25.18
25.18
XPD1
17,707,317.07
17,707,317.07
XPF1
138.43
138.43
XPT1
11,483,991.63
11,483,991.63
YER1
57.88
57.88
ZAR1
1,020.74
1,020.74
ZMW1
1,219.18
1,219.18
ZWL1
44.95
44.95
Taxation Exchange Rates
31 Aug 16 - 06 Sep 16
USD 1
13,232.00
AUD 1
10,043.30
CAD 1
10,213.70
DKK 1
1,999.40
HKD 1
1,706.22
MYR 1
3,283.28
NZD 1
9,623.63
NOK 1
1,605.23
GBP 1
17,433.70
SGD 1
9,757.68
SEK 1
1,569.45
CHF 1
13,631.10
JPY 100
13,101.00
MMK 1
11.01
INR 1
197.29
KWD 1
43,920.70
PKR 1
126.23
PHP 1
285.00
SAR 1
3,528.53
LKR 1
91.12
THB 1
382.08
BND 1
9,756.53
EUR 1
14,885.50
CNY 1
1,987.61

Okusi Associates: Indonesian Business & Management Services