World copper demand to grow through 2000<\/p>\n
CHICAGO (Reuter): World refined copper consumption is expected
\nto grow through 2000 based on continued industrial strength in
\nthe world's leading economies, independent base metals analyst
\nJanice Jolly said.<\/p>\n
Speaking to Reuters before her presentation to the Institute
\nof Scrap Recycling Industries' annual copper roundtable here,
\nJolly said key copper consumers like the U.S., Europe, China,
\nThailand, Malaysia, Indonesia are expected to be in the forefront
\nfor the next three years.<\/p>\n
\"There is also some hope that South America will become a
\nmajor copper consumer by year 2000,\" Jolly told Rueters in an
\ninterview before her presentation.<\/p>\n
Over the long term, from 1997 through 2001, the growth rate of
\nworld refined copper consumption will be 3.2 percent on a yearly
\nbasis, she said.<\/p>\n
She forecast this year's world refined copper consumption will
\nbe around 13.1 million tons, and will increase to 14.9 million
\ntons by 2001.<\/p>\n
World copper mining production, which is estimated to be 11.3
\nmillion tons in 1997, should expand to around 13.3 million tons
\nby 2001, based on new and anticipated mine capacity, Jolly said.<\/p>\n
She said there is \"huge\" mine capacity anticipated in Chile,
\nArgentina, Indonesia, as well as other countries. And some of the
\nnew capacities have already started this year in Chile and
\nIndonesia.<\/p>\n
\"The world supply-demand scenario for 1998 does not look that
\nbad, with a only a little over one month's (supply in)
\ninventories (or) about 1 million tons of refined copper on hand.<\/p>\n
By 1999, however, world refined copper inventories may
\nprogress to 1.5 to 1.6 million tons and by 2000-2001, inventories
\nmay be well over two months supply, or two to three million
\ntons,\" she said.<\/p>\n
She stressed that her estimates were on the conservative side,
\nbased on lower world scrap recovery and lower mine capacity
\nutilization from 1990 to 2001.<\/p>\n
Regarding scrap, she noted that world scrap market will
\ncontinue to suffer lower recovery rates, due to abundant primary
\nsupply anticipated through 2001.<\/p>",
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