Winning the peace harder than winning war<\/p>\n
Sayidiman Suryohadiprojo, Former Governor, National Resilience Institute
\n(Lemhanas), Jakarta<\/p>\n
The Americans are now facing difficult and complicated
\nproblems in the management of postwar Iraq. Not only are
\nadministrative problems causing them severe headaches, but so are
\nsecurity problems. According to AFP, about 57 members of the U.S.
\nmilitary have become victims of postwar skirmishes since May this
\nyear.<\/p>\n
Only by winning peace can the U.S. build a new Iraq in
\naccordance with its national interests. The Americans have
\nalready stated that the new Iraq will be a democratic Iraq.
\nAlthough not formally stated, the U.S. is also interested in
\nmaking Iraq an important -- if not the most important -- player
\nin maintaining peace and stability in the Middle East, in
\naccordance with U.S. interests.<\/p>\n
This means that the new Iraq should safeguard the continuity
\nof the state of Israel in an environment of intense Arabic
\nhostility.<\/p>\n
However, winning the peace in Iraq is not an easy nor simple
\nmatter. It looks as if the U.S. has misjudged or underestimated
\nthis problem, and it seems that Americans believe that the U.S.'
\nsuccess in rebuilding Germany and Japan after World War II can be
\nrepeated easily in Iraq. If so, there is not enough
\nacknowledgement of the differences between the German and
\nJapanese conditions of the past with the present Iraqi situation.<\/p>\n
America's success in rebuilding Germany after World War II
\nmay, in large part, be attributed to its conflict and competition
\nwith the Communist East.<\/p>\n
The majority of Germans did not like communism nor the Soviet
\nUnion, and this sentiment was a strong motivator for them to
\nrebuild West Germany to become the wealthy Federal Republic of
\nGermany and a strong ally of the Americans. The Marshall Plan was
\na very significant factor in changing the German people's minds
\nin becoming friendly with the Americans. A no less important
\nfactor was the sense of unity among the German people and their
\npatriotic character. The wise and effective leadership of Konrad
\nAdenauer also cannot be underrated.<\/p>\n
The success in Japan, on the other hand, stemmed, in
\nprinciple, from two factors. The first was General Douglas
\nMacArthur's great ambition to not only be a successful military
\ngeneral and war leader, but also an administrator and statesman
\nwho will be renowned throughout history.<\/p>\n
The second was the Japanese's recognition that they had lost
\nthe war because they were far behind America in industrial
\nmanagement and technology, and that Japan must dramatically
\nchange its stance vis-a-vis the Americans, pleasing the Americans
\nto acquire the necessary knowledge to improve its shortcomings.<\/p>\n
Then came the rising danger of communism, when the People's
\nRepublic of China replaced Kuomintang China. MacArthur wanted to
\nmake Japan a strong U.S. ally in Asia and so supported all
\nJapanese requests to rebuild their country. The unity of the
\nJapanese people was also very important for this purpose, so
\nMacArthur did not take any action against the Japanese Emperor,
\nalthough many in the West wanted him to be incriminated as
\nJapan's Number One war criminal. The result was that Japan
\nrecovered within five years, making the dramatic change from an
\nenemy into an ally.<\/p>\n
In Iraq, we have entirely different conditions. The most
\nimportant factor is the division of the Iraqi people into the
\nShia and the Sunni, the Kurds and the Baath Party. Winning the
\npeace in Iraq means the reestablishment of Iraq as a national
\nentity, and this requires a national leadership that can unite
\nthe people and overcome their differences.<\/p>\n
It seems that Bremer, the U.S. administrator, is not a
\nMacArthur, and it is far from easy to unite all the factions and
\ngaining their confidence. Moreover, the Kurds have their own
\nagenda of becoming the independent -- or at least separate --
\npolitical entity of Kurdistan. Also, nobody among the Iraqi
\nleaders can exert strong leadership and has the confidence of all
\nfactions. It is therefore understandable that until today, we
\nhave not seen any political progress in the new Iraq, let alone
\nthe emergence of a democratic Iraq.<\/p>\n
Facing the lack of national leadership among the Iraqis, the
\nU.S. appears to have decided to prolong its presence in Iraq and
\nthe dominant role of the U.S. administrator. It is also possible
\nthat the U.S. does not want to leave Iraq so soon, and may want
\nto use its position for other political and strategic maneuvers
\nin the Middle East.<\/p>\n
Most of the Iraqi people do not like the idea of a long U.S.
\npresence, and have reminded the Americans that they came to Iraq
\nto liberate the Iraqi people from Saddam Hussein. They are happy
\nwith the end of Saddam's dictatorial rule, but now the Americans
\nshould leave Iraq to rule itself. This situation will only
\nsharpen the controversies between the Iraqi people and the U.S.
\noccupation forces further, and will lead to more violence and
\nvictims among the Iraqi people, as well as the U.S. military.<\/p>\n
The Americans' underestimation of the consolidation problem
\nhas also caused many shortcomings in daily managerial problems,
\nlike the shortages in electricity, medical supplies and other
\ndaily necessities. These will definitely create an atmosphere of
\ndiscontent and distrust that could exacerbate the political
\nproblems. Further, there seems to be no prospect for a speedy
\nimprovement of these administrative activities.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, the wish to turn Iraq into a nation with a single
\nreligion, like Iran, seems to be developing among the Shia. This
\nwill result in additional problems that did not exist before,
\nbecause during Saddam's rule Iraq was a secular state that
\nrecognized all the different faiths among the Iraqi people. If
\nthe Americans are to deny this development, it will definitely be
\nviewed as a Christian move against Islam. It is all too easy to
\nimagine the potential dangers of a religious conflict, which will
\ninvite Muslims and Christians from other areas to join the fight.<\/p>\n
It will be very interesting to see how the Americans handle
\nthis delicate issue.<\/p>\n
With all these problems to be resolved, we must agree that the
\nU.S. still has a long way to go before it can turn Iraq into a
\nuseful ally for promoting its interests in the Middle East.<\/p>\n
Although President Bush has declared that the Iraq war is
\nover, America still has yet to win the peace.<\/p>",
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