Several domestic economic indicators in the first quarter were showing signs of bottoming out, three economists said, meaning the economy might not slump much further this year. Despite this, it was too soon to say whether the improvements were the \u201cgreen shoots\u201d of recovery or just a short-term respite, they said.<\/p>\n
Giving a growth forecast for the first quarter, Mirza Adityaswara, Bank Mandiri\u2019s chief economist, noted that several first-quarter indicators, such as sales of cars, motorcycles, housing, cement and heavy machinery, were beginning to stabilize or even pick up compared with the fourth quarter of last year.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe conditions might indicate that we are bottoming, we might not be getting worse and we may have passed the worst,\u201d Mirza told reporters on Tuesday.<\/p>\n
\u2018The economy might improve slowly but I also worry that it could continue to be flat\u2019<\/p>\n
Mizra Adityaswara<\/p>\n
\u201cAhead, the economy might improve slowly but I also worry that it could continue to be flat, which will mean a recovery will take a longer time.\u201d<\/p>\n
While she believed these signs were positive, Destry Damayanti, an economist with PT Mandiri Sekuritas, said the rallies in the rupiah and the Jakarta Composite Index in the past few weeks did not mean conditions in the real economy were getting better. Instead they reflected transitory investor sentiment, she said.<\/p>\n
Chatib Basri, a senior adviser to the finance minister, echoed Mirza and said the first-quarter rise in retail sales, especially food and electricity consumption, showed the economy was performing better than had been earlier predicted.<\/p>\n
Chatib said the country should remain cautious, as negative figures such as exports and imports could drag the overall economy down if they continued to fall.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf exports continue to plunge, the indirect impact is consumption will weaken because of increased unemployment. Declining imports are also a bad thing because this reflects negative investment,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Chatib said despite domestic efforts to stimulate the economy through the speeding up of government spending and stimulus packages, global economic recovery would play a major part in any local improvement. He said if the US economy was to rebound then the domestic economy would surely follow.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/will-the-economy-improve-yes-no-maybe-say-analysts-1240387576", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }