Will next century be Asia-Pacific era?<\/p>\n
By Yasuhiko Shibata<\/p>\n
TOKYO: The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum,
\nwhich groups some of the world's fastest growing economies, is to
\nhold a summit in Indonesia next week.<\/p>\n
A key issue will be whether APEC members decide to make a
\nstronger commitment to the Asia-Pacific free-trade zone advocated
\nby the United States, or whether to stick to local cooperation.<\/p>\n
Also at issue will be Japan's policy toward APEC, which still
\nremains unclear.<\/p>\n
Looking back at world history, we see that the pattern of
\nemergence of advanced civilizations has followed a westward
\ncourse. Thus the great civilizations of China, India and
\nMesopotamia in the Middle East were followed by the Greek and
\nthen Roman civilizations, which later spread throughout Europe
\nand eventually reached the United States. Now the center of world
\ncivilization seems to be moving back to Asia.<\/p>\n
Considering the combined share of the world market accounted
\nfor by the 18 APEC nations, including Chile, which is scheduled
\nto join the forum shortly, it is evident that the 21st century
\nwill be the era of Asia-Pacific nations.<\/p>\n
The combined population of APEC nations tops 2.2 billion,
\nequal to 40 percent of the world's population. APEC nations'
\ncombined gross domestic product amounts to $12 trillion, or more
\nthan 50 percent of the world's total, while its combined trade
\nvolume accounts for 40 percent of global trade.<\/p>\n
According to the International Monetary Fund, the average
\neconomic growth rate of the Asian nations surpassed seven percent
\nin 1992, against a world average of minus 0.1 percent. Some
\nexperts predict that if Asia-Pacific economies continue to grow
\nat their current rate, their combined share of the global economy
\nwill exceed 60 percent in the early 21st century.<\/p>\n
Given the sustained growth of Asian economies and the rapid
\nexpansion of their markets, it is understandable that the United
\nStates has started to shift emphasis in its external trade policy
\nto links with China and other Asian countries.<\/p>\n
Economic relations between the United States, Japan and other
\nAsian nations have cast Japan as supplier of both capital and
\ntechnology, Asian nations as manufacturers and the United States
\nas consumer.<\/p>\n
Now, the United States, with massive trade deficits and
\nforeign debts, wants to transform itself from a consumer to an
\nexporting country. Washington appears to believe that a
\ncommitment to the fast-growing Asian market is the key to U.S.
\neconomic recovery. Asian nations have achieved an economic
\n\"takeoff\" and acquired considerable purchasing power.<\/p>\n
Last autumn, the Clinton administration announced that it
\nwould henceforth attach great importance to APEC. The idea behind
\nthe new policy was to create a free trade zone in the Pacific
\nBasin at the initiative of the United States and to convert Asian
\ncountries into production-consumption-investment bases for U.S.
\nbusinesses.<\/p>\n
One of the major steps the United States has taken in this
\ndirection is President Bill Clinton's successful drive to have
\nthe APEC conference upgraded from a ministerial meeting to a
\nsummit meeting. Another step was the report compiled by the APEC
\nEminent Persons Group that urged member nations to achieve
\nregional trade liberalization by the year 2020. The group is
\nchaired by Fred Bergsten, head of the Institute of International
\nEconomies of the United States, which is a major adviser to the
\nU.S. administration on external economic policy.<\/p>\n
According to some, the United States has another goal, namely
\nexpanding the North Atlantic Free Trade Area (NAFTA) to Asia as
\npart of a long-term, grand scheme to create a Pacific Basin Free
\nTrade Area that includes Central and South American countries.
\nThe United States is now sounding out South Korea and Taiwan
\nabout their willingness to join NAFTA.<\/p>\n
Asian nations have shown mixed responses to the U.S. scheme.
\nMalaysia, Thailand and four other members of the Association of
\nSoutheast Asian Nations are concerned about what they consider
\nhasty moves toward market liberalization and creation of a free
\ntrade zone under U.S. leadership.<\/p>\n
These countries are instead moving to create an Asian economic
\nbloc in which the East Asian Economic Caucus will play the
\ncentral role. Their attitude toward APEC is, therefore, that the
\nforum should remain a loose consultation organization.<\/p>\n
The Philippines and Indonesia, on the other hand, are leaning
\ntoward the U.S.-led plan for an Asia-Pacific economic zone, their
\nresponse to the threat posed by China's rapid economic expansion
\nand aggressive exporting strategy.<\/p>\n
South Korea and Taiwan have expressed a willingness to join
\nNAFTA. These diverse approaches indicate that Asia's newly
\nindustrialized economies are not united in their policy toward
\nAPEC.<\/p>\n
The fate of APEC lies chiefly with China, a likely 21st-
\ncentury superpower, and Japan, a 20th-century economic power.<\/p>\n
China, which is now changing over to a market economy, will
\nneed funds, technology and markets for its products from both
\nJapan and the United States.<\/p>\n
Thus China wants to step up trade and economic cooperation
\nwith the two countries, but will seek a delicate balance in
\nJapan-U.S. relations. It would not help China if trade disputes
\nbetween Japan and the United States intensify, but neither would
\nChina be pleased if Japan and the United States joined hands in
\neconomic policy toward the Asian giant.<\/p>\n
China is also keen to join the General Agreement on Tariffs
\nand Trade. China is thus likely to consider it unwise to take the
\nleadership in APEC meetings or seek a showdown with the United
\nStates.<\/p>\n
The last question concerns how Japan will act at the APEC
\nmeeting. There are two options: Japan could give strong backing
\nfor the move to form an Asian economic bloc that includes ASEAN
\nand China, or it could play a mediator role between the United
\nStates and Asia and call for gradual formation of a Pacific Basin
\neconomic zone.<\/p>\n
The external economic policy of the current Murayama Cabinet
\nremains totally unclear, as is the case with its domestic
\neconomic policy. If Japan continues to take an ambiguous attitude
\nat the upcoming APEC meeting, Japan may see its reputation
\nnosedive and invite contempt from Asian nations.<\/p>\n
Next autumn, Japan will host the APEC ministerial meeting in
\nOsaka. In view of the forthcoming APEC meetings in Indonesia and
\nOsaka, both the Japanese government and bureaucracy should become
\nfully aware of the urgent need to establish a basic policy toward
\nAsia.<\/p>\n
Yasuhiko Shibata is a senior fellow with the Yomiuri Research
\nInstitute.<\/p>\n
-- The Daily Yomiuri<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/will-next-century-be-asia-pacific-era-1447893297", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }