Will Aceh turn into a battlefield again?<\/p>\n
Leo Suryadinata, Senior Research Fellow, Institute of South-east Asian
\nStudies, The Straits Times, Asia News Network, Singapore<\/p>\n
The Indonesian government and the Free Aceh Movement (GAM)
\nwere supposed to meet in Geneva on April 25 to restore peace in
\nthe restive province. The meeting was scheduled by the Geneva-
\nbased Henry Dunant Centre, which had acted as the "facilitator"
\nof the peace treaty between Jakarta and GAM in December last
\nyear.<\/p>\n
Just before the scheduled date, when junior Indonesian
\nofficials were already in Geneva, and Chief Security Minister
\nSusilo Bambang Yudhoyono was about to depart for the Swiss city,
\nGAM called for the meeting to be postponed, to April 27.<\/p>\n
Understandably, the Indonesian government felt insulted by the
\nlast-minute postponement and refused to accept the new date.
\nHawks in the administration were on the verge of resuming
\nmilitary operations in the province, when President Megawati
\nSoekarnoputri decided to give GAM another chance.<\/p>\n
Why GAM's sudden change? The official explanation has been
\nthat GAM was not ready on that date because of administrative and
\naccommodation problems. But this was rejected by Jakarta.<\/p>\n
Zaini Abdullah, the GAM wing leader based in Sweden, blamed
\nthe Henry Dunant Centre for "unilaterally setting the date of the
\nmeeting" and criticized Indonesia for "lack of sincerity".<\/p>\n
This however ignores the fact that on Dec. 9 last year, it was
\nthrough the good offices of the Henry Dunant Centre that Jakarta
\nand GAM signed the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement in Geneva.<\/p>\n
The pact marked the beginning of a possible peace in Aceh. It
\nprevented large-scale conflict, at least initially. Its terms
\nincluded an immediate ceasefire, the gradual disarming of GAM and
\nthe gradual withdrawal of the Indonesian military from Aceh.<\/p>\n
In addition, demilitarized zones were to be created and a
\nlocal election was to be held next year. The process was to be
\nmonitored by the Joint Security Committee (JSC) comprising GAM,
\nthe Indonesian government and international representatives.<\/p>\n
Recent events have, however, put a damper on the prospects of
\npeace.<\/p>\n
Both Indonesia and GAM continue to trade accusations about
\nviolations of ceasefire. GAM has refused to disarm and is
\nreported to have ambushed Indonesian troops.<\/p>\n
Jakarta, on its part, continues to reinforce its troops and
\nharass GAM. GAM accuses Jakarta of wanting to solve the problem
\nthrough "military means" rather than "dialogue"; Jakarta accuses
\nGAM of refusing to abandon the agenda for Aceh's independence.<\/p>\n
While the Indonesian military is divided into hawks and doves,
\nboth groups are committed to the unitary state of Indonesia.<\/p>\n
The Indonesian government wants GAM to repudiate secessionist
\nambitions and disarm before further negotiations can take place.
\nGAM wants negotiations "without preconditions".<\/p>\n
To resolve the crisis, President Megawati held a limited
\nCabinet meeting on April 28, immediately upon arriving back from
\nan overseas trip. It was decided that Jakarta would give GAM
\nanother chance. Military operations would not resume immediately.
\nOnly humanitarian and law-enforcement operations would be
\ninitiated in Aceh.<\/p>\n
If these measures failed to improve the situation in Aceh
\nwithin two weeks, "the government might decide to launch a
\nsecurity restoration in the province".<\/p>\n
The problem of Aceh is complex. Military abuse and suppression
\nduring the Soeharto era, continuing armed conflict, economic
\ndeprivation and high unemployment rates are fertile grounds for
\nAcehnese ethno-nationalism.<\/p>\n
Jakarta has introduced some reforms but these appear to have
\nbeen too little, if not too late. Equally serious are the
\ndifferent interpretations of the pact. GAM sees it as a means
\ntowards independence, while Jakarta sees it as an acceptance of
\nthe "autonomous province" status.<\/p>\n
Many Acehnese ethno-nationalists still feel that independence
\nis their final goal. GAM spokesman and commander Sofyan Daud told
\nTempo magazine on April 14 that the pact was only a first step
\ntowards Aceh's independence.<\/p>\n
According to him, GAM considers that the local election next
\nyear will not be part of the Indonesian general and presidential
\nelections, but a referendum to decide whether Aceh would stay or
\nleave Indonesia. He maintained that three-fourths of the people
\nin Aceh would favor GAM, not knowing that the 2000 Indonesian
\ncensus shows that Acehnese constitute only 50 percent of the
\npopulation in the province -- concentrated in the northern
\ndistricts.<\/p>\n
Jakarta is unlikely to let Aceh ethno-nationalists have their
\nway. If the conflict recurs, Aceh will become a battlefield
\nagain. A long guerrilla warfare will be fought, and this will be
\nat the expense of both Acehnese and non-Acehnese.<\/p>",
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