Who's in charge here?<\/p>\n
The unexpected turn of events in East Timor has put President
\nB.J. Habibie's political future on the line. Not only is he
\nfacing a barrage of criticisms for his administration's failure
\nin preventing violence in East Timor, but he is also coming under
\nstrong pressure on the domestic front, including from within his
\nown Cabinet, the military and Golkar Party, as well as his
\npolitical opponents.<\/p>\n
This condition partly explains why Jakarta was abuzz with
\nrumors of his impending resignation all day on Wednesday. They
\nonly receded after Gen. Wiranto, the minister of defense and
\nsecurity-cum-chief of the Indonesian Military (TNI), denied them
\nlater in the day. Habibie appeared to have lost the initiative,
\nat least as far as East Timor policy is concerned. On Tuesday, he
\ndeclared martial law in East Timor although the proposal, which
\noriginated from Wiranto, had been rejected by his own Cabinet and
\nthe House of Representatives a day earlier. Then on Wednesday, he
\ncanceled his out-of-town engagements for the next few days,
\nincluding the summit of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation
\n(APEC) forum in Auckland this weekend.<\/p>\n
Although the rumors of his resignation, or a military take
\nover, have been denied, the events of the past few days left a
\ndeep impression that Habibie's wings have been clipped,
\nespecially on the question of East Timor. Abroad, he is blamed
\nfor the violence in East Timor. At home, he is more criticized
\nfor letting the ballot proceed and then consequently losing it.
\nUnder an agreement his administration signed with the United
\nNations, Indonesia will have to let go of the territory which it
\nannexed 23 years ago at a huge cost in terms of lives and money.<\/p>\n
Essentially, Habibie is being blamed for everything that has
\nhappened, and about to happen in East Timor. Politically, the
\nfallout from the East Timor explosion may yet finish him off.
\nHabibie, who stepped into Soeharto's shoes in May last year, has
\ngoverned the nation with weak legitimacy and with his credibility
\nconstantly undermined by his own actions. His chances of
\nretaining the presidency in November must surely be diminished
\nnow. East Timor adds to a long list of failures that makes him an
\nunlikely serious presidential candidate.<\/p>\n
In other cases where he failed -- the violence in Ambon and
\nAceh, the corruption investigation of Soeharto and the Bank Bali
\nscandal to name just a few of the big ones -- he relied on the
\nsupport of Golkar, TNI or the House of Representatives. In facing
\nthe East Timor fallout, he is virtually alone. But then, it was
\nHabibie who made East Timor his personal policy when in January
\nhe reversed Indonesia's 23-year policy and offered East Timorese
\nthe option of a self-determination vote. This policy came with
\nlittle consultation beyond his closest aides. The military and
\nthe Ministry of Foreign Affairs, two institutions most involved
\nin East Timor, were only brought in at a very late stage of the
\npolicy discussion.<\/p>\n
The East Timor reversal policy won Habibie international
\nacclaims at the time, and it set him apart from his predecessor-
\nand-political mentor Soeharto. His close aides never tirelessly
\ntouted East Timor among the breakthroughs that should make him a
\n\"reformist\". If it was not for the violence which erupted in East
\nTimor after the Aug. 30 ballot, his international standing would
\nsurely rise, and this, in turn, would boost his chances in the
\nNovember presidential election. Alas, this is not the case. East
\nTimor was Habibie's personal gambit which did not pay off. He now
\nhas to pay the heavy price.<\/p>\n
The German-trained aircraft engineer naively overestimated his
\nown power, and underestimated the institutions around him that
\ncould provide him with the political support. When he offered
\nEast Timorese the chance to determine their own future, he
\noverlooked the constitutional process: such a decision must come
\nfrom the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR). He failed to
\nforesee the strong resistance from within the military against
\nhis decision to let the ballot in East Timor, and to risk losing
\nthe territory for which many soldiers gave up their lives.
\nHabibie is no Soeharto, who almost always had his way because he
\ncontrolled the MPR and the military.<\/p>\n
Now politicians of all colors are only too happy to seize the
\nopportunity to attack Habibie, even as he faces a grave crisis
\nwith all the international criticisms over East Timor. The Golkar
\nParty is expected to review its nomination of Habibie as its
\npresidential candidate. It would surprise no one if cabinet
\nmembers began keeping their distance from him. His presidential
\naccountability report must also stand little chance of being
\naccepted by the MPR in November.<\/p>\n
Habibie's days are virtually numbered. Even if he remains in
\ncharge of the government until November, he will find the going
\neven rougher as he will rule with even less credibility than he
\nhad before. Whatever happens now, Indonesia is entering a new
\nperiod of uncertainty, with the disturbing question: Who is
\nreally in charge of the country now?<\/p>",
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