Who will be the winners in the 2004 elections?<\/p>\n
Hank Valentino, Senior advisor, the International Foundation
\nfor Election Systems (IFES), Jakarta<\/p>\n
When Indonesia staged successful elections in 1999, a
\nmilestone in democratization was achieved. Voters and citizens
\ncelebrated the transparent and public counting of ballot papers
\nat more than 300,000 polling places throughout the country.<\/p>\n
Now, almost five years later, new democratic reforms are being
\nimplemented as voters will have a voice in the selection of
\ncandidates for the House of Representatives (DPR), Provincial
\nLegislative Council (DPRD I) and Regional Legislative Council for
\nregencies (DPRD II), the Regional Representatives Council (DPD),
\na new chamber in the national legislature) and the direct
\nelection of the president and vice president. It is true, in more
\nways than one, when people say the 2004 elections will be very
\ndifferent.<\/p>\n
But, can the lessons learned from the 1999 elections be
\napplied to 2004? What about the electorate: Has it changed? What
\ncan we expect in 2004?<\/p>\n
While it is too early to predict election outcomes, trends and
\nsimilarities are beginning to appear among voters. However, it
\nmust be noted that these trends could change dramatically between
\nnow and the elections.<\/p>\n
Look at some of the facts as they stand today: In 1999 there
\nwere approximately 118,000,000 registered voters, with over 93
\npercent voting. In 2004 there are over 143,000,000 registered
\nvoters, an increase of over 25,000,000, or 21 percent. Early
\nresearch data indicates voter turnout will most likely be over 90
\npercent. Calls for golput (abstention) this time appear to have
\nhad little or no impact.<\/p>\n
In looking back to 1999 it is interesting to note that three
\nmonths before the election almost two-thirds (62 percent) of
\nvoters had already decided which party they would vote for in the
\nelection. That number increased to 64 percent two months before
\nthe election.<\/p>\n
In an IFES survey completed in July 2003, only 19 percent
\nindicated they did not know which party they would support if the
\nelection were held then. While this does not mean 80 percent of
\nthe voters had already decided how they would vote in 2004, it
\ndoes indicate that the political parties and candidates will have
\na difficult time swaying votes. Usually it is \"floating\" voters
\nthat parties and candidates target first, as they are considered
\nmore open to persuasion.<\/p>\n
A quick look at respondents who reported how they voted in
\n1999 and gave their current preferences can give an indication of
\nthe party's retention of voters and the number of voters changing
\nparties. An average of 44 percent of those responding to the
\nquestion indicated they would vote for the same party, while an
\naverage of 11 percent indicated they would vote for a different
\none this time.<\/p>\n
One other note of caution for 2004: Be alert to those claims
\nthat have tried to categorize or group voters by ethnicity,
\ngeographical location, religious preference, gender, age,
\neducation level, socioeconomic status, urban\/rural or any number
\nof other categories, in order to see if there are trends in a
\nparticular grouping. In some cases it is possible to identify
\ntrends in these categories, such as Party A appears to have more
\nsupport in East Java than Party B, or Party C has its highest
\nlevel of support in Bali or some other geographical location. If
\none were to review the statistics of the 1999 elections, you
\nwould notice, for example, that religious preference alone is not
\nsufficient for predicting trends. Obviously, all Muslims did not
\nvote for the same party. However, combinations of categories can
\nbegin to sort out differences and identify trends, such as voters
\nbetween the ages of 18 to 25 in urban areas of East Java prefer
\nParty X by a margin of two to one.<\/p>\n
Parties and candidates have begun this analysis. Potential
\nvoters will be scrutinized as never before as parties begin to
\nevaluate their strengths and determine how to overcome their
\nweaknesses and gain voters. As the degree of sophistication
\nincreases in the parties, voters will also want more information
\nthan they had in previous elections. Voters will not be satisfied
\nat the traditional methods of campaigning of the past. Caravans
\nand demonstrations may command attention, but will not
\nnecessarily win the vote.<\/p>\n
The polling data available at this time indicates the 2004
\nelections are going to be very close and competitive. No party or
\ncandidate has a significant lead at the national level. The
\nelections are very much in the hands of the voters. Voter demands
\nfor reforms have been heard. Some may argue that the setup for
\nthe 2004 elections is not perfect, but all must agree it is a
\nstep in the right direction.<\/p>\n
In the end, it is not the political parties or the KPU that
\nare driving the elections, but voters -- the electorate. These
\nshould not be viewed as the KPU's or political parties'
\nelections. The 2004 elections belong to the citizens of
\nIndonesia. Peaceful participation in the electoral process,
\nobservance of laws and regulations, and respect and tolerance of
\nthe rights and responsibilities of each eligible voter will make
\nthe 2004 elections successful. The 2004 elections will be much
\nmore than the celebratory event of 1999.<\/p>\n
Voters will determine the leaders and future direction of the
\ncountry. Voters want more information about the parties,
\nplatforms and candidates. The voter of 2004 wants to be an
\ninformed voter, not just a voter. This places more responsibility
\non the parties, candidates and the media. The parties and
\ncandidates that listen to the electorate and convince voters they
\nare able to respond to their demands will be the winners. In the
\nend, if those parties and candidates do win, the voters and
\ncitizens will be the real winners.<\/p>\n
Hank Valentino has worked on elections in more than 20
\ncountries and has worked in Indonesia since January 1999. He
\nwas the Director of the Federal Voting Assistance Program for the
\nU.S. government.<\/p>",
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