Indonesia just turned 81, and it\u2019s holding onto something most\nnations have already lost: a young population. Across much of the world,\ncountries are shrinking. Fewer babies are born each year, and the\npopulation that remains is getting older, fast. Indonesia isn\u2019t immune\nto that shift, but it\u2019s arriving late, and that timing gives the country\nsomething increasingly rare: room to prepare.<\/p>\n
A World Running Out of Babies<\/p>\n
Demographers use one number to track this: the total fertility rate,\nor the average number of children a woman has in her lifetime. A country\nneeds roughly 2.1 children per woman just to keep its population stable\nover time. Fall below that for long enough, and the population\neventually shrinks and ages.<\/p>\n
That shift carries real economic weight. Fewer young workers means a\nsmaller tax base and labor force just as a growing share of retirees\ndraws on pensions and healthcare systems. Fewer workers per retiree\nstrains both. Consumer spending softens, since older populations\ntypically spend less than younger, family-forming ones. And the labor\nshortages already visible in Japan and parts of Europe tend to compound\nover time, since a shrinking generation of workers produces an even\nsmaller next generation. Left unaddressed, the result is slower growth\nand heavier fiscal pressure precisely when a country can least afford\neither.<\/p>\n
More than half the world\u2019s countries are already below replacement\nlevel. The extremes on either side are stark.<\/p>\n
The Lowest Rates<\/p>\n
East Asia anchors the bottom of the global rankings. South Korea\u2019s\nfertility rate sits near 0.75, the lowest of any major economy on Earth,\nwith Hong Kong and China close behind at around 1.0. Japan follows at\nroughly 1.2. Europe as a whole averages around 1.4, and even the United\nStates, long considered an outlier among wealthy nations, has slipped to\nabout 1.6.<\/p>\n
There are exceptions worth noting. Israel stands out at roughly 2.9,\nthe only developed economy still above replacement level. France, at\naround 1.8, holds the highest rate among major European nations, still\nshort of 2.1, but well ahead of its neighbors.<\/p>\n
The Highest Rates<\/p>\n
The opposite extreme clusters almost entirely in Sub-Saharan Africa.\nNiger and Chad both sit above 5.6 children per woman, with Somalia and\nthe Democratic Republic of Congo close behind. In fact, 18 of the\nworld\u2019s 20 highest-fertility countries are found in the region;\nAfghanistan is one of the rare exceptions elsewhere. Nigeria, the\nregion\u2019s most populous nation, still averages around 4.4, and Pakistan,\nanother demographic heavyweight, sits near 3.4, both well above\nreplacement level.<\/p>\n
Where Indonesia Stands<\/p>\n
Indonesia sits right at the edge, not high-fertility like it was a\ngeneration ago, but not in East Asia\u2019s danger zone either. According to\nWorld Bank data, the rate has fallen steadily from over 5 children per\nwoman in the 1970s to roughly 2.1 today, essentially replacement level.\nThe population, now around 288 million people, is still growing, by\nroughly 0.8% a year.<\/p>\n
The bigger story is the age structure. About 70% of Indonesians are\nof working age (15 to 64), while only 6% are 65 or older. Compare that\nto Japan, where nearly 3 in 10 people have already passed 65.\nIndonesia\u2019s median age is around 30. Japan\u2019s is closer to 49.<\/p>\n
The Window That\u2019s Still Open<\/p>\n
Economists call this a demographic dividend: a stretch where the\nworking-age share of the population peaks relative to children and\nretirees. It\u2019s a rare, historically favorable setup, and Indonesia is\nliving through it right now. Most projections put the window open\nthrough the early-to-mid 2030s, which gives the country a genuine, if\nlimited, runway to convert a young population into sustained economic\ngrowth.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s a very different position from its neighbors. Thailand\u2019s\npopulation is aging quickly despite its smaller size, and China spent\ndecades with a similar dividend but largely used it up before its\nfertility collapse hit. Indonesia is watching that story unfold next\ndoor and still has time to write a different ending.<\/p>\n
Not a Free Pass<\/p>\n
None of this happens automatically. A dividend only pays off if there\nare enough jobs, skills training, and infrastructure to absorb a large\nworking-age population. And Indonesia\u2019s own fertility rate is falling\ntoo, just about 15 to 20 years behind the countries now grappling with\nthe fallout. The same forces reshaping fertility in China, Japan, and\nSouth Korea, urbanization, rising education, more women in the\nworkforce, are already at work in Indonesia. The window won\u2019t stay open\nforever.<\/p>\n
A Generation\u2019s Task<\/p>\n
When Indonesia declared independence in 1945, the challenge was\nbuilding a nation from scratch. Today\u2019s challenge is different but just\nas consequential: making the most of a demographic window that many of\nits neighbors have already watched close. The UN\u2019s population\nprojections make clear how unusual this moment is globally. Not every\ncountry gets a second chance to plan ahead. Indonesia, for now, still\ndoes.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/while-the-world-ages-indonesia-still-has-time-1787133011", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }