{
    "success": true,
    "data": {
        "id": 1806138,
        "msgid": "when-will-us-fuel-prices-fall-if-peace-with-iran-is-achieved-1781603427",
        "date": "2026-06-16 15:50:00",
        "title": "When Will US Fuel Prices Fall if Peace with Iran Is Achieved?",
        "author": "Wisnu Arto Subari",
        "source": "MEDIA_INDONESIA",
        "tags": "",
        "topic": "Energy",
        "summary": "A tentative peace deal between the United States and Iran has sparked optimism that US petrol prices will decline from their current average of around US$4.06 per gallon. However, energy analysts caution that retail prices will fall slowly due to the 'rocket and feather' effect, predicting a drop to approximately US$3.75 by early July. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is expected to gradually restore global oil supply, though prices are unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels without a major recession.",
        "content": "<p>There is good news for motorists in the United States. Fuel prices\nare predicted to continue falling following a tentative agreement\nbetween US and Iranian officials to end the armed conflict that has\nlasted for the past four months. President Donald Trump stated via a\nsocial media post on Sunday (15\/6\/2026) that a deal with Iran had been\nconcluded. A report from the Wall Street Journal also confirmed the\nstatement through Iranian government sources. The announcement\nimmediately sparked market optimism, marked by a surge in stock market\nfutures and a drop in global crude oil prices. \u201cShips of the world, fire\nup your engines. Let the oil flow!\u201d Trump wrote in his Truth Social\npost. Since the conflict erupted nearly four months ago, shipping\ntraffic through the Strait of Hormuz\u2014a vital artery for global oil\nsupply\u2014had almost ground to a complete halt. Although petrol prices are\nexpected to soon fall below the psychological threshold of US$4 per\ngallon, energy experts are warning consumers not to expect a drastic\nprice drop in the short term. Analysts often refer to this phenomenon as\n\u2018rocket and feather\u2019, meaning petrol prices tend to shoot up like a\nrocket during a crisis but float down slowly like a feather when the\nsituation improves. According to AAA data on Monday (16\/6\/2026), the\nnational average petrol price stood at US$4.06 per gallon. Meanwhile,\ndata from GasBuddy showed a slightly lower figure of US$3.99 per gallon.\nFor comparison, a month ago the average price was still at US$4.52, far\nabove last year\u2019s price of just US$3.13 per gallon. Pavel Molchanov,\nsenior investment strategist at Raymond James, explained that a drop in\ncrude oil prices typically takes one to two weeks to be reflected at\nretail pumps. Conversely, a rise in oil prices only takes three to five\ndays to impact consumer prices. \u201cThe signing of the agreement is not the\nend of everything. This is actually the beginning of a long logistical\nprocess to restore oil supply from the Persian Gulf,\u201d Molchanov said. He\npredicted the national average would fall to US$3.90 within one to two\nweeks. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, offered\nan optimistic projection that the national average could reach US$3.75\nper gallon by the Fourth of July celebrations. However, he noted that\nthe intensity of the late summer hurricane season could be a major\nvariable that changes the situation. Besides petrol, diesel prices are\nalso beginning to show a downward trend. This provides a tailwind for\nthe macro economy because diesel is the primary fuel for logistics\ntrucks that distribute goods to retail stores. Despite this, analysts\ndoubt that petrol prices will return to pre-war levels (around US$2.98\nper gallon) anytime soon in 2026. Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil\nAssociates, said that such low prices would only be possible if the\nworld experienced a severe recession that triggered a drastic drop in\ndemand.<\/p>",
        "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/when-will-us-fuel-prices-fall-if-peace-with-iran-is-achieved-1781603427",
        "image": ""
    },
    "sponsor": "Okusi Associates",
    "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com"
}