Peace in the Middle East is once again revealing its most fragile\nface: announced in the morning, threatened with collapse by evening. As\nthe world had just welcomed a temporary ceasefire between the United\nStates and Iran, along with plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a new\nwave of escalation quickly swept through the region. Israel launched\nlarge-scale airstrikes on Lebanon, hitting more than 60 strategic points\nand reigniting threats to close the world\u2019s most vital energy route.\nWithin hours, market optimism turned into global anxiety.<\/p>\n
For Indonesia, these developments are not merely foreign news passing\non television screens. They serve as a loud alarm for fiscal stability,\ndomestic inflation, and the direction of national energy resilience.\nThis is because every tension around the Strait of Hormuz immediately\nresonates worldwide, including in the fiscal space of the state budget\nand the households of the Indonesian people.<\/p>\n
THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND THE WORLD\u2019S ENERGY PULSE<\/p>\n
The Strait of Hormuz is not just an ordinary sea route. It is one of\nthe world\u2019s most important energy chokepoints, through which about\none-fifth of global oil trade and a large portion of international LNG\npass every day. When this route is disrupted, it is not only tanker\nships that are held up, but also the stability of global energy prices.\nEven today, the reopening of this route still faces serious obstacles\nand is not fully normalised.<\/p>\n
More worryingly, the announced ceasefire remains highly conditional.\nRecent reports indicate that the conflict could potentially widen after\nIsrael\u2019s major attack on Lebanon caused significant casualties and\nprovoked strong responses from Iran and regional proxy groups. In other\nwords, the world is standing on uncertainty that could turn into an\nenergy crisis at any time.<\/p>\n
DIRECT IMPLICATIONS FOR INDONESIA<\/p>\n
For Indonesia, the most immediate effect is pressure on the state\nbudget. A rise in global crude oil prices would directly increase the\nneed for energy subsidies and compensation. In a fiscal condition that\nmust maintain growth, social spending, and development, a surge in\nglobal energy prices could significantly erode policy space.<\/p>\n
The second impact is pressure on the rupiah exchange rate. The need\nfor foreign exchange to import oil and gas increases when energy prices\nsoar, potentially weakening the rupiah and adding to imported\ninflation.<\/p>\n
The third impact, which is often felt more quickly by the public, is\nthe rise in logistics costs and prices of basic necessities. When ship\ninsurance premiums increase and global distribution is disrupted, the\neffects will spill over to imported food prices, fertiliser, industrial\nraw materials, and domestic transportation costs. At this point,\ngeopolitical conflict thousands of kilometres away turns into an issue\nof people\u2019s purchasing power.<\/p>\n
WFH AS A TEMPORARY SAFETY VALVE<\/p>\n
In the short term, the government needs to prepare quick-response\ninstruments that do not solely rely on subsidies. One option being\nimplemented is adaptive work from home (WFH) as a temporary energy\nconsumption control policy.<\/p>\n
This policy is not just about work flexibility, but also a tactical\ninstrument to suppress fuel consumption in the transportation sector,\nespecially in metropolitan areas. When mobility decreases, daily energy\nconsumption can also be quickly reduced. However, this step must be\nunderstood as a temporary buffer, not a structural solution.<\/p>\n
MOMENTUM TO REARRANGE ENERGY SOVEREIGNTY<\/p>\n
This crisis should be read as a momentum to accelerate the major\nagenda of national energy sovereignty. Indonesia must not continue in a\nreactive position, waiting for oil prices to rise and then patching\nfiscal pressures with subsidies. What is needed is the acceleration of\nstrategic agendas: biodiesel towards B40 and B50, strengthening\ngeothermal, downstreaming domestic gas, building the battery industry,\nand accelerating electric vehicles.<\/p>\n
It is precisely amid this global uncertainty that a nation is tested:\nwhether it merely survives the crisis, or is able to turn the crisis\ninto a turning point for transformation.<\/p>\n
CLOSING: WHEN A NATION\u2019S STRATEGY IS TESTED<\/p>\n
The cracking peace in the Middle East provides an important lesson\nthat global energy stability is never truly certain. The Strait of\nHormuz that has not yet recovered, the ceasefire threatened with\ncancellation, and the escalation of the Lebanon conflict show that the\nworld is entering a more dangerous geopolitical phase.<\/p>\n
In such a situation, what is at stake for Indonesia is not only oil\nprices, but also national economic resilience, state budget stability,\nand the future of people\u2019s purchasing power. Because when peace cracks,\nwhat is first tested is not only the conflict zone, but the strategies\nof nations that depend on global energy.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/when-peace-cracks-indonesias-energy-resilience-is-at-stake-1775775041", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }