What the future holds for the party system<\/p>\n
Indra J. Piliang , Jakarta<\/p>\n
Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Jusuf Kalla (SBY-JK) will
\ndefinitely become the next president and vice president of the
\nRepublic of Indonesia for the 2004-2009 period, despite the
\nsupport of only three minority political parties -- the
\nDemocratic Party, the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and the
\nCrescent Star Party (PBB).<\/p>\n
The SBY-JK pairing managed to defeat Megawati Soekarnoputri
\nand Hasyim Muzadi, which was backed by the Golkar Party, the
\nIndonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the United
\nDevelopment Party (PPP), the Reform Star Party and the Prosperous
\nPeace Party (PDS).<\/p>\n
Two other political parties with a fair number of seats in the
\nHouse of Representatives, the National Awakening Party (PKB) and
\nthe National Mandate Party (PAN), though choosing to remain
\nneutral in the presidential election runoff, gave tacit support
\nto the SBY-JK victory.<\/p>\n
With the triumph of SBY-JK and the loss suffered by Mega and
\nHasyim, is it true that the machines of the political parties
\nhave been crippled as confidently stated by many observers? This
\nmay be the case in connection with the defeat of the Nationhood
\nCoalition-backed Mega-Hasyim ticket. But the assumption may be
\nmistaken as this ticket got most of its votes from PDI-P and PDS
\nmembers.<\/p>\n
What went wrong, then? The first political mistake was
\nactually made when the Nationhood Coalition was formed to ensure
\nthe victory of Mega and Hasyim. Golkar (along with the PKB) and
\nPPP failed in the first-round of the presidential election to get
\ntheir Wiranto-Salahuddin Wahid and Hamzah Haz-Agum Gumelar
\ntickets elected. The defection of party voters had already begun
\nin this round, particularly following a waning in the popularity
\nof the parties after the April 5 legislative elections. Wiranto
\nand Salahuddin were \"outsiders\" to Golkar and the PKB, and so was
\nAgum to the PPP.<\/p>\n
Therefore, when Golkar and PPP leaders tried to force their
\nvoters to elect Mega-Hasyim, a political rebellion took place at
\nthe grassroots level. Besides, with the floating mass concept
\npromoted during the New Order period, loyal constituencies for
\nGolkar and the PPP were never properly formed. The agreement
\nbetween the top leaders of the parties was not capable of being
\nfully implemented at the grassroots level. The political feuding
\nin some regions between PDIP and Golkar supporters hampered
\ncooperation at the lower levels.<\/p>\n
Following the coalition's loss in the presidential election,
\ncan the political parties still be relied on? Sure they can, as
\nthe parties' roles in both the central and local legislatures is
\nstill dominant. The position of a political party's leader is
\nmade much stronger under Law No.23\/2002 on legislative
\ninstitutions. With the right of a party to recall its members
\nfrom the country's legislatures, the independence of legislators
\nis not as strong as it was previously. Parties are able to
\ninfluence the legislative, oversight and budgeting processes in
\nthe legislature. Golkar has shown how real this power is by
\nousting nine party executives, including those elected in the
\nApril 5 election.<\/p>\n
It is thus misleading to assume a lack of party influence in
\nthe future, especially as regards government policy. The SBY-JK
\npairing will obviously be supported by allied parties in running
\nthe government, notably in the Cabinet. The appointment of
\nministers from the political parties is needed to provide a
\nbuffer against the pressure from other parties in the House. If
\nthe Nationhood Coalition is consistent with its decision to serve
\nas the opposition, the government will face significant hurdles
\nin applying its policies.<\/p>\n
However, as the House has no power to dissolve the government,
\nunless this is done through impeachment, which involves the
\nConstitutional Court and the People's Consultative Assembly
\n(MPR), the pressure that can be brought to bear by this
\n\"opposition\" will be limited to the budgeting, legislative and
\noversight fields. To the public at large, the more the House can
\nexercise control over the government, the more checks and
\nbalances will be created in the context of the executive-
\nlegislative relationship. The government would no longer be able
\nto make strategic decisions on a whim.<\/p>\n
The implementation of local autonomy on a more extensive scale
\nwill also affect the relationship between the central government
\nand local administrations. The SBY-JK pairing does not enjoy
\nmajorities on local councils. The nationhood alliance's
\ndomination of the legislatures in most regions only serves to
\nincrease the political problems that SBY-JK will have to deal
\nwith.<\/p>\n
Another challenge for the new government revolves around the
\nelection of local chief executives. The provisions of revised Law
\nNo.22\/1999 on local administration, which only allow political
\nparties to nominate candidates for local chief executive
\nelections, will make it hard for SBY-JK to get their men into the
\ntop jobs at the local level. The effectiveness of the parties
\nwill also be tested during the succession process for 33
\ngovernors and 441 regents\/mayors and their deputies later on. If
\nthe winning candidates come from the coalition, assuming it
\nremains solid, the government could well find its work running
\ninto difficulties.<\/p>\n
This would serve to reduce the political power and influence
\nof the new president. The central government will encounter a
\nnumber of cases -- also faced by President Megawati -- involving
\nnatural resources management and central-local financial sharing.<\/p>\n
But with regard to party agendas over the next 1 to 2 years,
\nit is worth noting that the leaders of a number of parties will
\nbe replaced. If the influence of SBY-JK on the parties concerned
\nstrengthens, leading to the removal of, for instance, Golkar's
\nAkbar Tandjung by Fahmi Idris, the central government may enjoy
\ngreater support. Some regional board executives of Golkar are
\nalso known to be loyal backers of SBY-JK, whose taking of over 60
\npercent of the vote shows the strong cross-party grass roots
\nsupport for the pair, even in provinces won by Golkar in the
\nApril 5 legislative elections.<\/p>\n
The above description shows how the political parties have not
\nbeen weakened, but have not automatically been strengthened
\neither. Lots of internal and external issues will affect the
\nroles they play. If these parties are capable of modernizing and
\nreforming, they will continue to survive in society. Should they
\nfail, however, the authority of the political parties, and by
\nextension the country's legislatures, will be considerably
\nreduced. They are indeed at the crossroads, and their respective
\nfutures depend on how they respond to the problems they face.<\/p>\n
The writer is a researcher at the Center for Strategic and
\nInternational Studies, and a program manager with the SET
\nFoundation.<\/p>",
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