{
    "success": true,
    "data": {
        "id": 1672346,
        "msgid": "what-is-el-nino-predictions-for-2026-and-anticipatory-measures-for-its-impacts-1775973045",
        "date": "2026-04-12 12:04:46",
        "title": "What is El Ni\u00f1o? Predictions for 2026 and Anticipatory Measures for Its Impacts",
        "author": "",
        "source": "DETIK",
        "tags": "",
        "topic": "Agriculture",
        "summary": "Indonesia's Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) predicts a weak to moderate El Ni\u00f1o event in the second half of 2026, with a 50-80% likelihood, potentially leading to a drier and longer dry season that could strain water resources and agricultural production. The government is preparing by maintaining stable water supplies through reservoir management, including dredging and weather modification, and ensuring national food stocks, such as 17 million tons of rice, remain secure for up to 11 months. These measures aim to safeguard food security amid climate variability, highlighting the importance of ongoing monitoring to refine forecasts.",
        "content": "<p>Citing the official BMKG website, El Ni\u00f1o is a phenomenon involving\nthe warming of sea surface temperatures (SST) above normal levels in the\ncentral and eastern Pacific Ocean. This warming of SST causes a shift in\ncloud growth potential from Indonesian regions to the central and\neastern Pacific Ocean.<\/p>\n<p>Some facts about El Ni\u00f1o:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><p>El Ni\u00f1o recurs every 4-7 years<\/p><\/li>\n<li><p>El Ni\u00f1o causes drought in Indonesia<\/p><\/li>\n<li><p>The impacts of El Ni\u00f1o need to be anticipated<\/p><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Predictions for El Ni\u00f1o in Indonesia in 2026<\/p>\n<p>Deputy for Climatology at BMKG, Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan, explained\nthat BMKG also predicts the possibility of the El Ni\u00f1o phenomenon\ndeveloping in the second half of this year. Until the end of March 2026,\nthe El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)\nconditions are still observed in a neutral phase.<\/p>\n<p>However, climate modelling indicates that ENSO could develop into an\nEl Ni\u00f1o phase in the second half of 2026.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAt present, BMKG\u2019s prediction for the intensity of El Ni\u00f1o is in the\nweak to moderate category with a 50-80% chance, and notes a small\npossibility (less than 20%) that this phenomenon could develop into a\nstrong category,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>BMKG reminds of the importance of caution in interpreting current\nprediction data due to the spring predictability barrier phenomenon\u2014a\ndrastic decline in the accuracy of weather and climate model predictions\nfor ENSO as the Northern Hemisphere passes through the spring period\n(March, April, May). The accuracy of El Ni\u00f1o predictions produced during\nthe March-April period is generally reliable only for forecasts three\nmonths ahead, thus requiring expertise in understanding the multi-factor\ninteractions that cause the emergence of El Ni\u00f1o conditions and its\nteleconnections to Indonesian regions.<\/p>\n<p>For this reason, BMKG needs to continue monitoring data updates\nperiodically and assessing their developments.<\/p>\n<p>In line with this, the confidence level regarding the intensity of El\nNi\u00f1o will be higher in the May 2026 prediction results. Statistically,\npredictions in May have better reliability for covering climate\nconditions up to six months ahead.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAlthough the exact intensity is still developing, BMKG emphasises\nthat the 2026 dry season is predicted to be drier and last longer than\nthe normal average, also as a contribution from natural climate\nvariability in Indonesian regions,\u201d he clarified.<\/p>\n<p>Anticipating the Impacts of El Ni\u00f1o in Indonesia<\/p>\n<p>El Ni\u00f1o is predicted to begin occurring in several regions in\nmid-2026. This phenomenon has the potential to cause a longer dry season\nthan usual.<\/p>\n<p>This condition can affect water availability, particularly for\nagricultural irrigation needs. Therefore, the government is preparing\nanticipatory measures as follows to keep food production running.<\/p>\n<ol type=\"1\">\n<li>Water supply is maintained to remain stable during the dry\nseason<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Reservoirs are key to maintaining irrigation water supply, especially\nin Central Java as a food barn. For example, the Gajah Mungkur Reservoir\nwith a water volume of approximately 340 million m\u00b3 (effective capacity\nof approximately 260 million m\u00b3) to support irrigation.<\/p>\n<p>These are some efforts to maintain reservoir capacity:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><p>4 dredger ships are operated to reduce sediment\ndeposits.<\/p><\/li>\n<li><p>3 closure dikes are built to hold sediment from the Keduang\nRiver.<\/p><\/li>\n<li><p>Tree planting in upstream areas to improve and maintain the water\ncatchment area.<\/p><\/li>\n<li><p>Weather modification operations (artificial rain).<\/p><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ol start=\"2\" type=\"1\">\n<li>National food stocks are ensured to be safe for up to 11 months\nahead<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<ul>\n<li><p>Rice stocks:<\/p><\/li>\n<li><p>Bulog: 4.5 million tons<\/p><\/li>\n<li><p>Private sector (horeca): 12.5 million tons<\/p><\/li>\n<li><p>Harvest potential (standing crop): 11 million tons<\/p><\/li>\n<li><p>Government Food Reserves (CPP) are also strengthened:<\/p><\/li>\n<li><p>Corn: 168 thousand tons<\/p><\/li>\n<li><p>Sugar: 49 thousand tons<\/p><\/li>\n<li><p>Cooking oil: 121 thousand kilolitres<\/p><\/li>\n<li><p>Beef and buffalo meat: 11 thousand tons<\/p><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>With optimal water management and maintained food stocks, the\ngovernment ensures that the impacts of El Ni\u00f1o on food supplies can be\nminimised. These steps are part of efforts to maintain national food\nsecurity stability amid climate change.<\/p>",
        "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/what-is-el-nino-predictions-for-2026-and-anticipatory-measures-for-its-impacts-1775973045",
        "image": ""
    },
    "sponsor": "Okusi Associates",
    "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com"
}