What if Megawati fails to become next president?<\/p>\n
By M.M. Bhoernomo<\/p>\n
KUDUS, Central Java (JP): Who will be elected the next
\npresident? This is the question of most interest after the polls.
\nAlthough it is likely the next president will be nominated by the
\npolitical party which collected the largest number of votes in
\nthe general election, the problem is that this party is the
\nIndonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) and
\ntheir presidential candidate is Megawati Soekarnoputri.<\/p>\n
Everybody knows that Megawati is the only women presidential
\ncandidate, as of now, and some Muslims have rejected the
\npossibility of a female president. Besides, to many observers
\nMegawati remains a questionable presidential candidate because
\nher intellectual capacity has not been put to the test (she once
\nrejected the invitation to attend a debate of potential
\npresidential candidates). Thus, an opportunity still exists for
\nanother figure to be elected the next president.<\/p>\n
In discussing who will be elected the next president, there
\nare three scenarios which may come about during the upcoming
\nGeneral Session of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR).<\/p>\n
The first scenario is the election of Megawati as president
\nbecause the National Awakening Party (PKB), the National Mandate
\nParty (PAN) and other non-Islamic-based political parties support
\nher. In this case, the Indonesian Military (TNI) would also
\nsupport Megawati to prove that it is committed to building a
\ndemocracy in Indonesia and that it is dedicated to its motto:
\n\"The best for the people will be the best to TNI.\"<\/p>\n
There are three major problems which may emerge with the
\nelection of Megawati as president. First, her election would meet
\nwith very strong opposition, comprising Islamic-based political
\nparties and Golkar Party. This opposition could disrupt the
\ncourse of Megawati's administration by blocking many political
\ndecisions, resulting in political instability and frequent
\nCabinet reshuffles.<\/p>\n
Second, we would see hyperprogressive economic policies,
\nincluding a major overhaul of the national banking system, a
\ntransformation of the country's micro and macroeconomic systems
\nand a change in the map of conglomerates and monopolies.<\/p>\n
Third, there would be a change in the attitude of the broader
\ncommunity, who are mostly abangan (nominal Muslims). They would
\nnot strictly adhere to the precepts of Islam, which would be
\nindicated by a drop in the intensity of religious services. This
\nis what many santri Muslims who strictly adhere to the precepts
\nof Islam are most worried about. This problem could bring about
\npsychological conflicts between the abangan and santri.<\/p>\n
The second scenario in the MPR is the election of Habibie as
\npresident on the back of a coalition between Golkar Party, the
\nUnited Development Party (PPP) and other political parties which
\nsupport the status quo. Habibie's election would also be
\nsupported by Muslims, who would make clear during the General
\nSession of the MPR that they rejected Megawati and supported
\nHabibie.<\/p>\n
In this scenario, TNI would take a neutral stance because this
\nneutrality would give it a double advantage. Namely, it would
\nallow TNI to command greater respect and it would also make it
\nappear reform-minded. In other words, it would no longer appear
\nas a supporter of the status quo.<\/p>\n
The election of Habibie could also come about because certain
\nparties could \"buy votes\" during the General Session of the MPR,
\nas many people now fear. It is a possibility the upcoming General
\nSession will be marred by money politics aimed at ensuring a
\nvictory for Habibie.<\/p>\n
The election of Habibie as president would also bring about
\nthree major problems. First, there would be large-scale
\ndemonstrations staged by university students demanding that he
\nresign.<\/p>\n
Second, there would be large-scale proreform demonstrations at
\nthe MPR building because the legislators who elected Habibie
\nwould be considered traitors to people's sovereignty and the
\nreform movement.<\/p>\n
Third, there would be large-scale rioting because Megawati's
\nsupporters, who would feel unfairly treated, would run amok. In
\nthis case, they would be angry that the triumph of PDI Perjuangan
\nin the polls was considered useless.<\/p>\n
The third scenario in the MPR is the election of an
\nalternative figure as president. This person could be respected
\nMuslim scholar Nurcholish Madjid or another reformist figure.
\nThis scenario would come about if Megawati gave way and was
\nsatisfied with the position of vice president in order to avoid a
\npolitical crisis triggered by the rejection of a woman president
\nby Muslims.<\/p>\n
If the next president is an alternative figure, there would be
\nthree major advantages. First, there would no longer be the
\ndichotomy of status quo-reformist, civilian-military and abangan-
\nsantri. In this case, all parties would prioritize
\nthe future of the reform agenda. Perhaps former president
\nSoeharto and those considered supporters of the status quo would
\nbe forgotten and considered history.<\/p>\n
Second, there would appear a new tradition of democracy, which
\nwould place the government and the opposition as equal forces. In
\nthe future, there would be democratic transitions of national
\nleadership and the country's political stability would grow and
\nthere would be no more leaders with their own cult following.<\/p>\n
Third, there would be a coalition government so that the
\nnumber of political parties in the next polls would be reduced.
\nPerhaps there would only be five major parties while smaller
\nparties would voluntarily fuse. In this respect, TNI would
\nvoluntarily phase out its dual function.<\/p>\n
It may well be that none of these three scenarios will occur
\nin the presidential election because some unforeseen scenario
\nwill change the entire script. For example, before the MPR meets
\nunrest erupts because people are disappointed with the outcome of
\nthe polls. In this context, TNI would have a strong argument for
\ndeclaring an emergency situation and taking over power.<\/p>\n
It is possible this scenario could occur because losing
\npolitical parties will fail to accept the results of the polls.
\nThere is now a tendency on the part of losing political parties
\nnot to accept the elections results, which, admittedly, were
\nmarred by violations, including money politics.<\/p>\n
Also, there are certain groups, status quo supporters guilty
\nof corruption, collusion and nepotism during the Soeharto regime,
\nfor example, who prefer TNI take over power under the pretext of
\nan emergency situation. With TNI holding power, those involved in
\ncorruption, collusion and nepotism would believe they were safe
\nfrom prosecution.<\/p>\n
There has been widespread suspicion even prior to Soeharto's
\nresignation that the riots in many places were manufactured to
\nallow TNI to take over power.<\/p>\n
Many have harbored this suspicion because not even one of the
\nalleged provocateurs believed to have masterminded these riots
\nhas been arrested. And prior to the upcoming General Session of
\nthe MPR, all anybody can do is guess.<\/p>\n
The writer is chairman of the Forum for the Care of the
\nNation.<\/p>",
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