What are the implications of Megawati's decision?<\/p>\n
Megawati Soekarnoputri, deposed leader of the Indonesian
\nDemocratic Party (PDI), put weeks of intense speculation to rest
\nwhen she announced Thursday she would abstain from voting in the
\ngeneral election. Cornelis Lay, a political science lecturer at
\nGadjah Mada University in Yogyakarta, looks at what the decision
\nwill mean when the country goes to the polls on May 29.<\/p>\n
YOGYAKARTA (JP): As expected, Megawati Soekarnoputri will
\nabstain from voting in this week's elections. This woman, held up
\nas a symbol of political morality during the winding down of the
\ncampaign, qualified her decision by stating it was made as an
\nindividual.<\/p>\n
Her accompanying directive to supporters to exercise their
\nvoting rights according to their conscience did not detract from
\nthe gravity of her move -- a political boycott against the
\nelection and all it entails.<\/p>\n
It was her final political resort after the failures of her
\nlawsuits against the powers that be for the government-endorsed
\ncongress which replaced her at the party's helm.<\/p>\n
Her stance, at once declaring her own objections to the
\nelections while cautioning her supporters to make their own
\ndecision, may seem like straddling the political fence. Yet this
\nis precisely her shrewd ploy against any legal retaliation.<\/p>\n
The authorities will find it difficult to charge her for the
\noffense of encouraging others not to vote (even under the
\n\"rubber\" definitions of subversion) through her carefully worded
\nstatement.<\/p>\n
On the other hand, Megawati's individual decision is a clear
\nhint to her supporters to follow suit. Although her May 22
\nwritten instruction gave freedom to her supporters to vote for
\nany political party, this served as merely a token nod to others.<\/p>\n
There is no doubt that Megawati's supporters will follow her
\ndecision. Megawati has often relied on symbolism to convey
\nmessages to her supporters, and she is fully aware that a
\npersonal decision holds more sway over her supporters than an
\nofficial party stand.<\/p>\n
Her move has effectively negated predictions that Golkar and
\nthe United Development Party (PPP) would garner more votes due to
\nPDI's splintering. Expectations of a drastic vote increase for
\nPPP in some regions of Java have been dashed. The spontaneous
\nalliance between Megawati's supporters and the PPP is crumbling.<\/p>\n
Megawati's supporters may express their allegiance through
\nvarious means, but the majority of them will no doubt pierce all
\nthree party symbols on the ballot to render the vote void.<\/p>\n
This will increase the number of people who abstain from
\nvoting (known as the \"white group\" or Golput) commensurate with
\nthe number of Megawati supporters.<\/p>\n
Yet there is no doubt the utmost measures will be made through
\ngovernment channels to ensure the number of abstainers does not
\nincrease, or at least is not seen to increase. As Megawati is a
\nstaunch opponent of the government, a notable rise in Golput
\nnumbers would be extremely embarrassing to those in power.<\/p>\n
In Indonesian political culture, which does not permit blatant
\nopposition, this development could not be tolerated.<\/p>\n
The official line will be that a rise in non-voters was only
\nnotable in those areas known as Megawati strongholds; Bali, parts
\nof East and Central Java and Yogyakarta. This, or so goes the
\nreasoning, is evidence that golput was localized and Megawati's
\nclaims to nationwide support were untrue.<\/p>\n
There is even the possibility the government will balk at
\nannouncing figures on Golput if they are too high.<\/p>\n
Another telling ramification of Megawati's decision is that it
\nput paid to rumors (circulated in leaflets in Jakarta) that her
\nsupporters and PPP members were conspiring to topple President
\nSoeharto.<\/p>\n
With her announcement, Megawati has also relieved PPP leader
\nIsmail Hasan Metareum of tremendous pressure caused by the
\nrumors. She also saved herself from the enmity, or open
\nhostility, expected to arise with Metareum if the issue came to a
\nhead.<\/p>\n
One potentially perilous slip in Megawati's written
\ndeclaration is the encouragement to her supporters to act as
\nprivate witnesses during voting. This will place her supporters
\nin direct contact with government officials, the organizers of
\nthe elections.<\/p>\n
No doubt the government will be on full alert during the
\nelection and Megawati's supporters will prepare themselves well.
\nWe all hope that no violence will result from any encounter
\nbetween the two. After all, we have witnessed time and again the
\nfutility of violence.<\/p>\n
Controversy -- Page 2<\/p>\n
Exodus -- Page 3<\/p>\n
Editorial -- Page 4<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/what-are-the-implications-of-megawatis-decision-1447893297", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }