Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - Statistics Indonesia (BPS) has revealed the\nreasons why the potential rice harvest area in October 2026 is estimated\nto decrease by 0.11% compared to October 2025. This decline is closely\nlinked to rice planting conditions monitored through the Area Sampling\nFrame Survey (KSA) in July 2026.<\/p>\n
BPS noted that the potential rice harvest area for October 2026 is\nestimated to reach 0.86 million hectares, a slight decrease from October\n2025. This condition occurred after July 2026 saw a decrease in the\nproportion of land currently planted with rice (standing crop) and land\nunder preparation, while the proportion of land at risk of crop failure\nactually increased.<\/p>\n
Ateng Hartono, Deputy for Distribution and Services Statistics at\nBPS, stated that the change in land composition provides an important\npicture for assessing potential harvests in the following months.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn July 2026, there was a decrease in the proportion of rice\nplanting area or standing crop, a decrease in the proportion of land\npreparation, an increase in the proportion of fallow land, an increase\nin the proportion of land at risk of crop failure, and an increase in\nthe proportion of land planted with crops other than rice, compared to\nthe previous month (June 2026) as well as last year (July 2025),\u201d Ateng\nsaid during a BPS press conference on Tuesday (1\/9\/2026).<\/p>\n
Ateng explained that the planting conditions in July are crucial\nbecause the growth phase of the plants determines when the rice will be\nharvested.<\/p>\n
BPS noted that in July 2026, 36.27% of agricultural land was in the\nstanding crop phase, or currently being planted with rice. However, not\nall of these plants will be harvested in the same month.<\/p>\n
Of the total standing crop, the largest portion is in the generative\nphase at 15.78%. Plants in this phase are generally harvested about one\nmonth later. Meanwhile, plants still in the late vegetative phase are\nexpected to be harvested two months later, and early vegetative plants\napproximately three months later.<\/p>\n
\u201cFrom the standing crop area in July 2026, the majority is in the\ngenerative phase at 15.78%, which largely has the potential to be\nharvested in August 2026. As a note, rice plants in the generative phase\nare generally harvested within one month, the late vegetative phase\nwithin two months, and the early vegetative phase within three months,\u201d\nhe explained.<\/p>\n
This means that the potential harvest for October is highly dependent\non plants that were in earlier growth phases in July. When the\nproportion of standing crops and land preparation decreases, while land\nat risk of failure increases, the capacity for harvests in subsequent\nmonths is also pressured.<\/p>\n
Potential Harvest for August-October Declines<\/p>\n
BPS estimates that the potential rice harvest area for August-October\n2026 will reach 3.07 million hectares, a decrease of 0.04 million\nhectares or 1.29% compared to the same period last year, which reached\n3.11 million hectares.<\/p>\n
Specifically, the potential harvest area for August is estimated at\n1.11 million hectares, September at 1.10 million hectares, and October\nat 0.86 million hectares.<\/p>\n
The October decline is also accompanied by a potential drop in rice\nproduction. Rice production for October 2026 is estimated at 2.73\nmillion tons of dried milled grain (GKG), a 0.11% decrease compared to\nOctober 2025.<\/p>\n
Weather as a Risk Factor<\/p>\n
In addition to planting conditions, weather factors must also be\nconsidered as they can alter harvest realisations.<\/p>\n
Based on BMKG analysis presented by BPS, rainfall in July 2026 was\ngenerally in the low category across most regions of Indonesia.\nMeanwhile, rainfall in August is predicted to be low, and for\nSeptember-October, it is expected to be in the low to medium\ncategory.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe high or low level of rainfall will certainly affect rice\ncultivation in every region of Indonesia,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
BPS emphasised that the October projection remains a potential figure\nand is not yet final. The figures are subject to change if disruptions\noccur in the planting process, including pest attacks, floods, droughts,\nor changes in the timing of harvests by farmers.<\/p>\n
\u201cThese potential figures are still subject to change, primarily\ndepending on the planting conditions from August to October 2026, such\nas if there are attacks by pests or plant-disturbing organisms (OPT),\nfloods, droughts, or if the timing of the harvest by farmers changes,\nand so on,\u201d Ateng concluded.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/warning-issued-as-rice-harvest-area-potential-may-shrink-in-october-2026-1788267368", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }