Warming of Australia-RI ties may be temporary<\/p>\n
By Michael Christie<\/p>\n
SYDNEY (Reuters): The first visit in 26 years to Australia by
\nan Indonesian leader breathed some warmth back into ties that
\nhave been chilly since Canberra led international peacekeepers
\ninto East Timor two years ago.<\/p>\n
But Australia-based Indonesia watchers said on Wednesday that
\nthe thaw in relations between the world's fourth most populous
\nnation and the vast island continent of just 19 million people to
\nits south may be little more than temporary.<\/p>\n
If President Abdurrahman Wahid is forced out by his political
\nopponents at an impeachment hearing in August, the symbolism of
\nhis June 25-27 visit could melt into insignificance.<\/p>\n
Will the visit end an underlying hostility in Jakarta towards
\nAustralia?<\/p>\n
\"The short answer is no,\" said Michael van Langenberg, head of
\nSoutheast Asian studies at the University of Sydney.<\/p>\n
\"He's here, from the Canberra point of view, to establish some
\nlinks in the hope that, or assuming that, he stays. Then
\npresumably there's something to be gained from it. If he doesn't
\nstay, there's probably not very much to be gained,\" he said.<\/p>\n
Australian officials hailed Abdurrahman's trip as the start of a
\n\"new era\". Stability in the world's most populous Muslim nation
\nis crucial to Australian security and trade.<\/p>\n
In 1949, Australia became the first foreign country to
\nrecognize the Republic of Indonesia after its independence.<\/p>\n
Yet ties have been touchy since Indonesia invaded the former
\nPortuguese colony of East Timor in 1975.<\/p>\n
They disintegrated when Australia took the lead in a
\nmultinational peacekeeping force after East Timor voted for
\nindependence from Jakarta in 1999 and pro-Indonesia militias went
\non the rampage, killing more than 1,000 people.<\/p>\n
Many nationalist groups in Jakarta blame Australia for East
\nTimor's secession.<\/p>\n
Political analysts say Abdurrahman had never shared that view and
\nwas always regarded as a friend of Australia.<\/p>\n
The same cannot necessarily be said for his estranged Vice
\nPresident Megawati Soekarnoputri, who most people expect to
\nsucceed Abdurrahman should he be impeached by legislators over two
\nfinancial scandals and his chaotic 20-month rule.<\/p>\n
Legislators begin the impeachment process on Aug. 1.<\/p>\n
Megawati, daughter of Indonesia's first president Sukarno, is
\nunfamiliar with Australia.<\/p>\n
She is regarded by many foreign analysts as closer to the
\nmilitary than Abdurrahman and likely to take a tougher stance on
\nindependence movements in Aceh and Irian Jaya, which could lead
\nto human rights concerns in the West.<\/p>\n
Ultimately, she is seen as less likely to make relations with
\nAustralia a priority.<\/p>\n
\"If you have to draw a contrast (between Abdurrahman) and Megawati,
\nit's quite stark,\" said Chris Manning, head of the Indonesia
\nstudies project at the Australian National University.<\/p>\n
At the same time, Manning said he did not share the view of
\nothers that Megawati was a \"rabid nationalist\".<\/p>\n
Paul Kelly, the international editor of The Australian
\nnewspaper, noted in a commentary on Wednesday that Megawati was
\non hand to say goodbye to Abdurrahman when he left Indonesia for
\nAustralia, a gesture interpreted in Canberra as her support for
\nthe trip.<\/p>\n
Kelly argued that the visit had brought about a psychological
\nchange in relations that ran deeper than Abdurrahman's personal
\nfriendliness towards Australia.<\/p>\n
\"It terminates the mindset that Indonesia is a nation to which
\nour leaders visit and crawl while Indonesian leaders refuse to
\nstain their dignity by coming south to Australia and facing
\nprotesters,\" Kelly wrote.<\/p>\n
In the event, Abdurrahman faced just one low-key protest in
\nCanberra.<\/p>",
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