Valuable economic data<\/p>\n
The Central Bureau of Statistics, known by its local acronym
\nBPS (Biro Pusat Statistik), had previously compiled and published
\nofficial data on only past social and economic developments. But
\nthe bureau has, for the first time, issued a report containing
\nfuture projections entitled Indonesian economic situation in 1996
\nand economic projection for 1997. The report, launched at a
\nseminar on Monday which featured several noted economists and
\nbusinessmen as its panelists, was surprisingly straightforward in
\nits observations and projections. It does not sugarcoat its
\nobservations.<\/p>\n
The bureau, for example, predicts a slowdown in the growth of
\nforeign direct investment this year and in 1997, which sharply
\ncontrasts the ever-bullish reports from the Investment
\nCoordinating Board. The report cited inconsistency in micro-
\neconomic policies as one of the main factors causing growth to
\nslow. It mentioned persistently-high domestic credit interest
\nrates as a secondary factor.<\/p>\n
The report projects an inflation rate of 8.54 percent this
\nyear, compared to 8.60 percent last year. And the report predicts
\nthat inflation will rise to 8.92 percent in 1997. The inflation
\nprojections for 1996 and 1997 are much higher than the 5 percent
\nannual inflation target set by the government. The report also
\ncontains projections on foreign trade based on the estimated
\neconomic performances of Indonesia's major trading partners and
\nother key economic indicators.<\/p>\n
The BPS report should be welcomed as another valuable source
\nof Indonesian macroeconomic data. As the country's economy
\nbecomes increasingly linked with the world economy and as
\nfinancial and capital markets increase in depth and breadth,
\nthere is an increasing need for timely, reliable economic data
\nfor policy makers, analysts and businesspeople to keep abreast of
\nmacroeconomic conditions.<\/p>\n
There are of course many similar reports, prepared by
\ngovernment institutions, private-sector think tanks and analysts.
\nBut the wider the variety of economic reports and analyses, the
\nbetter it will be for businesspeople and investors to make
\nreasonable business decisions. Risks are inherent in any type of
\nbusiness, but reliable, timely data facilitates better risk
\nassessment-- the main factor differentiating business from
\ngambling.<\/p>\n
The availability of timely, reliable reports also help reduce
\nmarket rumors. Indonesia has often borne the brunt of rumors. In
\na country like Indonesia which pursues an open capital account,
\nrumors can exact a heavy toll. In early 1995, for example, the
\ncentral bank was forced to draw on more than US$500 million of
\nits foreign reserves to defend the rupiah against currency
\nspeculation.<\/p>\n
Rumors are unavoidable, especially in the run-up to next
\nyear's parliamentary election and the 1998 presidential election.
\nBut credible, timely information can shorten the life of rumors
\nand contain their impact.<\/p>\n
It is therefore encouraging to note that the BPS is fully
\naware of its basic prerequisite to make its information and
\nreports credible. The straightforward manner in which the BPS, as
\nan official body, made its conclusions on its qualitative
\nanalysis will surely help to enhance the credibility of its
\nmacroeconomic report.<\/p>",
"url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/valuable-economic-data-1447893297",
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"sponsor": "Okusi Associates",
"sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com"
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