USDA defends Brazil and Colombia coffee forecasts<\/p>\n
WASHINGTON (Reuter): The U.S. Agriculture Department stands by
\nits latest estimates of Brazilian, Colombian and Indonesian
\ncoffee production, despite questions raised by an international
\nproducer group headquartered in London, department forecasters
\nsaid Tuesday.<\/p>\n
In a prepared statement, the Association of Coffee Producing
\nCountries expressed concerned that USDA's forecasts for many
\ncoffee producers were at odds with forecasts made by the
\ncountries themselves.<\/p>\n
On Friday, USDA forecast Brazil's 1996-97 and 1997-98 coffee
\ncrops at 27.5 million and 28.0 million 60-kilo bags,
\nrespectively, compared to the Brazilian government's estimates of
\n25-26 million for 1996-97 and 22 million for 1997-98.<\/p>\n
USDA also pegged the 1997-98 Indonesian coffee crop at 6.8
\nmillion bags, compared to Indonesia's own recent estimate of 4.83
\nmillion.<\/p>\n
For Colombia, USDA forecast the 1997-98 crop at 11.3 million
\nbags compared to the Coffee Growers Federation's forecast of 12
\nto 15 million, the ACPC noted.<\/p>\n
David Stallings, acting chairman of USDA's specialty crops
\nforecasting committee, said USDA is \"comfortable\" with its
\nforecasts despite the concerns raised by the ACPC.<\/p>\n
The high number for 1997-98 Brazilian production reflects a
\nnumber of factors, including generally good growing conditions,
\nan increased number of bearing trees and sharply higher prices
\nthan a year ago, Stallings said.<\/p>\n
The last point suggests Brazilian farmers have spent more time
\nand money caring for the 1997-98 crop, which should boost yields,
\nhe said.<\/p>\n
\"I think all of that together give a pretty good basis for
\nsaying they have a pretty good crop coming on,\" Stalling said.<\/p>\n
A second USDA forecaster, who asked not to be identified,
\nnoted that German forecaster F.O Licht on Tuesday pegged the
\n1996-97 Brazilian crop at 28.5 million bags, which is even higher
\nthan USDA's most recent estimate.<\/p>\n
A year from now, USDA could revise its estimate of 1996-97
\nBrazil production down to 26 million bags, in line with current
\nBrazilian estimates, the analyst said. But \"I still think it
\ncould go up,\" based on the pace of exports which suggest Brazil
\nharvested a sizeable crop, he said.<\/p>\n
USDA conducted field surveys in September 1996 and again in
\nMarch-April to come up with estimates of Brazilian production.<\/p>\n
But it also relied heavily on information gathered by USDA
\npersonnel in Sao Paulo, who talk regularly with producers and
\nother people involved in the coffee trade, Stallings said.<\/p>\n
USDA's forecast of 1997-98 Indonesia coffee production also
\nreflects information gathered by its attache.<\/p>\n
Although the attache's forecast is higher the Indonesian
\ngovernment's, \"we have to rely on (the attache's) expertise in a
\ncase like that,\" Stallings said.<\/p>\n
USDA expects higher prices will encourage Colombian producers
\nto take \"a little bit better\" care of their trees following a
\nperiod of neglect due to low prices, he said.<\/p>\n
Reflecting that cautious attitude, USDA has forecast Colombia
\nto produce 11.3 million bags of coffee in 1997-98, up from 10.3
\nmillion in 1996-97, but below the Coffee Growers Federation's
\nforecast for the upcoming harvest.<\/p>",
"url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/usda-defends-brazil-and-colombia-coffee-forecasts-1447893297",
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"sponsor": "Okusi Associates",
"sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com"
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