Riyadh \u2014 Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman\u2019s ambitious plan to\ntransform Saudi Arabia into a global centre of innovation, prosperity,\nand modernity is now under threat. Escalating military tensions in the\nMiddle East threaten the \u201cambitious project\u201d of Vision 2030, which was\ndesigned to rival Dubai as a regional business hub and attract Western\ntalent and investment.<\/p>\n
This began when the United States and Israel launched airstrikes on\nIran on 28 February, killing Iran\u2019s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei.\nThis prompted indiscriminate retaliation from Iran, targeting not only\nIsrael but all Gulf states with American military bases, including Saudi\nArabia.<\/p>\n
This week, Saudi Arabia\u2019s air defences had to shoot down several\nIranian drones and cruise missiles, whilst an attack on the Ras Tanura\nrefinery briefly halted operations. The incident immediately shattered\nthe illusion of security that has long been championed in the Gulf\nregion.<\/p>\n
Dania Thafer, Executive Director of the Gulf International Forum,\nstated that normalising volatility poses a major risk to Saudi Arabia\u2019s\neconomic expansion. According to her, MBS\u2019s transformation agenda\ndepends heavily on the credibility of long-term forecasts, not merely\nabsolute security.<\/p>\n
\u201cVision 2030 assumes that global investors, multinational\ncorporations, and expatriate talent will view Saudi Arabia as a stable\nenvironment for capital, innovation, and lifestyle. This assumption\nbecomes more difficult to sustain if the Gulf is no longer seen as an\noasis of stability in the Middle East, but rather as an active front\nline,\u201d Thafer told the Independent on Tuesday, 10 March 2026.<\/p>\n
Thafer added that prolonged instability will damage the narrative of\ntransformation in the Gulf. This, according to her, will weaken the safe\nbusiness hub model that Dubai has cultivated and which Saudi Arabia is\nnow attempting to replicate.<\/p>\n
One of the main pillars of MBS\u2019s plan is the Neom megaproject, a\nvision of a future city that is the most ambitious in human history. The\nproject, valued at more than US$490 billion (approximately 8.2\nquadrillion rupiah), includes the development of mountain ski resorts,\ncoastal resorts, an industrial zone in the Red Sea, and a megastructure\ncity stretching 170 kilometres called The Line.<\/p>\n
However, the project has faced various obstacles, ranging from delays\nto cost overruns, forcing the Saudi government to begin scaling back its\ndevelopment. Experts warn that prolonged conflict will increasingly\nhamper MBS\u2019s ability to attract senior talent from the West.<\/p>\n
Exodus of Foreign Residents<\/p>\n
Dr.\u00a0Neil Quilliam from Chatham House believes that the main challenge\nfor Saudi Arabia is the crisis\u2019s impact on the country\u2019s ability to\nretain expatriate executives. This is crucial for persuading\ninternational businesses to establish regional headquarters in\nRiyadh.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe problem for Saudi Arabia beyond the immediate crisis is the\nimpact it will have on the country\u2019s ability to attract and retain\nsenior expatriate executives, persuade international businesses to\nestablish their regional headquarters in Riyadh, and continue\nimplementing Vision 2030,\u201d said Quilliam.<\/p>\n
Nevertheless, there is an argument that Saudi Arabia may have greater\nresilience compared to the UAE, another Arab nation also building a\nreputation as a global financial centre. Dania Thafer notes that\nreputationally, Saudi faces fewer losses because security is not their\n\u201cbrand\u201d in the way it is for Dubai, given its larger territory.<\/p>\n
Quilliam agrees that Saudi Arabia\u2019s territory, comparable in size to\nWestern Europe, is a major advantage in the recovery process. To date,\ndomestic flights in Saudi Arabia continue to operate and many\nexpatriates leaving the UAE are actually moving to the Kingdom via land\nroutes.<\/p>\n
\u201cAlthough Saudi Arabia\u2019s targeting in the current conflict will\ndamage short-term investor and expatriate confidence in the kingdom, it\nwill recover, albeit slowly, given the scale of its national\ntransformation projects and temporarily supported by high oil and gas\nprices,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
On the other hand, Dr.\u00a0Omar Al-Ghazzi, a professor at the London\nSchool of Economics and Political Science, offers a different\nperspective, suggesting that Iranian attacks could backfire on Tehran\nitself. The attacks could instead trigger deeper discussions about\ncollective security in the Gulf that unite Saudi and UAE interests.<\/p>\n
\u201cAt the economic level, the Iranian attacks have caused damage,\nparticularly for the UAE, because Dubai is the most globally and\neconomically successful city in the region. Dubai has long been a symbol\nof Gulf prosperity. Generally, Saudi Arabia is less of a target. For\nexample, Saudi air travel has been less affected,\u201d explained\nAl-Ghazzi.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/us-iran-conflict-claims-saudi-arabia-as-casualties-ambitious-project-at-risk-1773108746", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }