analysis Asia<\/p>\n
US green card crackdown clouds Indian tech workers\u2019 American\ndream<\/p>\n
Four Indian IT giants are among eight tech firms suspended from a key\nUS permanent residency programme. Analysts tell CNA the immediate\nbusiness impact may be limited, but workers face greater\nuncertainty.<\/p>\n
BENGALURU: The Trump administration on Thursday (Oct 8) suspended\neight major technology companies from a key United States programme that\nallows employers to sponsor foreign workers for permanent residency,\nciting alleged abuse of the immigration system.<\/p>\n
The companies include four Indian IT giants - Tata Consultancy\nServices (TCS), Infosys, Wipro and HCLTech - as well as Microsoft,\nAdobe, Cognizant and Capgemini.<\/p>\n
US Labor Secretary Keith Sonderling said authorities would stop\naccepting new applications and processing pending ones under the\nPermanent Labor Certification (PERM) programme.<\/p>\n
Under PERM, employers must first demonstrate that qualified American\nworkers are unavailable for the jobs, according to the US Department of\nLabor.<\/p>\n
India\u2019s Ministry of External Affairs said in a statement on Friday\nthat the restrictions did not \u201cadvance the shared ambitions\u201d of the two\ncountries. It added that the move could affect eligible workers\u2019 green\ncard applications but not existing H-1B visa holders.<\/p>\n
Indian IT industry body NASSCOM stressed that the programme concerns\npermanent immigration and is distinct from the H-1B visa programme for\ntemporary workers, which is unaffected by the suspension.<\/p>\n
Analysts told CNA the immediate impact on Indian IT firms would be\nlimited, but prolonged restrictions could raise staffing costs and\ndisrupt workers\u2019 plans to settle permanently in the US.<\/p>\n
\u201cI see this as a bigger talent retention concern than an immediate\nbusiness disruption (for Indian IT firms),\u201d said Achyuta Ghosh,\nexecutive research leader at analyst firm HFS Research.<\/p>\n
LIMITED IMPACT, BUT HIGHER COSTS AHEAD<\/p>\n
In a statement filed with the local stock exchange on Friday, TCS\nsaid that it had submitted fewer than 10 PERM applications over the past\ntwo years and did not expect the suspension to affect its workforce\nstrategy or client engagements.<\/p>\n
It reiterated its plans to hire 15,000 additional employees in the US\nover five years.<\/p>\n
Ghosh said Indian IT firms would likely focus their US hiring on\nclient-facing consulting, architecture and specialised engineering,\nwhile subcontractors in the country offered \u201cmore immediate\nflexibility\u201d.<\/p>\n
He expects companies to use more subcontractors and selectively hire\nlocally in the US over the next six to 12 months, while reassessing how\nmuch US-based work can be shifted offshore.<\/p>\n
Pareek Jain, CEO at EIIR Trend, a research firm that tracks the\nglobal engineering and IT services industry, estimated that hiring in\nthe US was 25 to 50 per cent more expensive than sending Indian\nemployees there, depending on the role.<\/p>\n
WHAT IT MEANS FOR INDIAN TECH WORKERS<\/p>\n
Sarbojit Mallick, chief business officer at recruitment platform\nInstahyre, said the biggest impact on Indian workers was the loss of a\n\u201cpredictable path to permanent residency\u201d in the US, rather than\nimmediate visa cancellations.<\/p>\n
Ghosh of HFS Research expects any shift to be gradual.<\/p>\n
\u201cI don\u2019t expect a mass return (to India) over the next six to 12\nmonths,\u201d he said, adding that prolonged uncertainty could gradually\nredirect experienced Indian tech workers towards opportunities at home\nand other global hubs.<\/p>\n
Overseas postings have long helped Indian IT companies attract and\nretain talent despite relatively low entry-level salaries, said Jain of\nEIIR Trend.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf the option of global (job) mobility is gone, it will be difficult\nfor them to attract good talent (at home),\u201d he added.<\/p>\n
The companies may have to develop opportunities in other overseas\nmarkets instead, he said.<\/p>\n
Ghosh said Singapore and the United Arab Emirates could attract some\nexperienced Indian professionals, but their tech job markets were\n\u201cconsiderably smaller\u201d than India\u2019s.<\/p>\n
Mallick said that Singapore could attract experienced Indian\nprofessionals in AI, fintech and tech leadership, while Malaysia could\nbenefit from talent in cloud, cybersecurity and engineering.<\/p>\n
He said returning professionals should not assume that years of\nUS-based work experience will translate into an equivalent job in\nIndia.<\/p>\n
\u201cIndia can absorb specialised talent, but not necessarily every\nreturnee at comparable seniority and pay.\u201d<\/p>\n
Mallick said opportunities were strongest in global capability\ncentres (GCCs), product engineering, AI infrastructure, cybersecurity\nand cloud computing.<\/p>\n
The rapid adoption of AI is widening the divide between demand for\nspecialists and generalist developers, Mallick said.<\/p>\n
He cited industry data showing recruitment for AI and\nmachine-learning roles rose 45 per cent in the financial year 2025-26,\nwhile overall IT hiring remained flat.<\/p>\n
\u201cDemand for specialists does not guarantee enough equivalent roles\nfor generalist developers and traditional IT services professionals,\u201d\nMallick said.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/us-green-card-crackdown-clouds-indian-tech-workers-american-dream-1791586222", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }