Upon entering a New Year<\/p>\n
Looking at the security and political situation that prevails
\nas the year 2003 nears its end, we can say that the pattern of
\nconflict that has been affecting the security situation in this
\ncountry has reached stabilization point. In terms of open
\nconflict, the situation in Aceh has already reached its peak. The
\nproblem now concerns whether well-thought-out follow-up plans
\nhave been put in place to ensure Aceh's socio-economic
\ndevelopment, thereby eventually healing the wounds caused by such
\na bloody conflict.<\/p>\n
In Poso, the situation appears more puzzling, which raises the
\nquestion of why the conflict over there could not have been
\nprevented. There are strong indications that the conflict is
\nbeing directed from outside the area. Although it appears that
\nthe situation has now calmed down, continued vigilance will be
\nneeded throughout the coming year.<\/p>\n
A recently discovered low explosive bomb is a case in point.
\nIt is not too far-fetched an idea to expect that the same old
\nelements who do not want to see stability prevailing in Indonesia
\ncould precipitate new flare-ups in Poso, and elsewhere in in the
\ncountry at the very same time that a series of elections are
\nbeing held in the coming months.<\/p>\n
It is the situation in Papua that will warrant particular
\nscrutiny over the coming year. The province of West Irian Jaya
\nhas now been officially established and will have its own
\nrepresentatives in the House of Representatives after the April 5
\ngeneral election. The formation of the province of Central Irian
\nJaya has been stalled following several outbreaks of violence in
\nTimika that drew the attention of observers not only in
\nIndonesia, but also the international community.<\/p>\n
It would seem, however, that attempts to establish the
\nprovince of Central Irian Jaya will resume in the coming year,
\nespecially if President Megawati Soekarnoputri is reelected. We
\nhave the strong impression that the socio-political unrest in
\nPapua plus West Irian Jaya province has been the result of
\nmeasures taken by the government of President Megawati. It has
\nacted on incorrect assumptions based on a rigid and doctrinaire
\ninterpretation of what the unitary state is all about.<\/p>\n
Of course, the suicidal bomb attack in front of Jakarta's
\nMarriott Hotel caused a serious setback to Indonesia's
\nreputation, which was on its way to recovery after the Bali
\nbombings of Oct. 22, 2002. The Marriott was chosen because it was
\npopular among expatriates, and a bomb attack there could be
\ncounted on to have international repercussions. The Marriott bomb
\nattack on Aug. 5 once again showed that Indonesians cannot afford
\nto be complaisant regarding the threat of terrorist attacks. With
\nthe prospect of possibly three elections looming, all potential
\ncenters of terrorist activity should therefore be eliminated.<\/p>\n
The most impressive political achievement in 2003, and one
\nthat will have a huge impact in 2004, was arguably the completion
\nof all the necessary legislation for the holding of the elections
\nfor legislatures at the regency and provincial levels, and for
\nthe House of Representatives at the national level. The law that
\ndetermines which political parties will be allowed to contest the
\nupcoming general election was generally felt to be
\nbureaucratically inclined. Nevertheless, 24 passed the test and
\nhave been affirmed as participants in the upcoming elections. It
\nis not too early to state that the current General Elections
\nCommission (KPU) is of superior quality than that of its 1999
\npredecessor. It is also worth noting that a number of
\ninternational organizations have given valuable assistance to the
\ncommission so that all the necessary infrastructure could be put
\nin place in time.<\/p>\n
One important question that needs to be asked at this point is
\nwhether the Indonesian public still has confidence that political
\nchange and good governance can be achieved by holding the general
\nelection. Prominent leaders of the political parties currently
\nrepresented in the government are inclined to believe that their
\npolitical life will continue beyond the 2004 general election.
\nPerhaps unaware of existing realities, they live in a sort of
\nbubble and do not realize that significant changes are taking
\nplace in terms of political sociology. The fact that some reports
\nreveal that perhaps 60 percent of the roughly 140 million
\neligible voters are taking a wait and see attitude means that
\nthese people will from this moment on be critically watching the
\n24 parties, and the presidential candidates they support.<\/p>\n
Who, basically, are these eligible voters? A recent report
\npublished by the World Bank under the title \"Indonesia: Beyond
\nMacro-Economic Stability\" helps to explain one important facet
\nconcerning the 140 million holding the franchise. The title of
\nthe report itself contains the message that macroeconomic
\nstability alone will not be enough to ensure the real fulfillment
\nof the basic needs of the poor. In Chapter 5, the report
\nemphasizes in forthright terms the fact that Indonesia is facing
\na poverty challenge. With the national poverty line currently
\nestablished at approximately US$1.55 a day, the report reached
\nthe startling conclusion that the majority of Indonesians earn
\nless than two dollars a day.<\/p>\n
The document points out that a large percentage of households
\nare just above the poverty line, which means that approximately
\n110 million Indonesians are on the verge of falling into poverty,
\nwith most of these concentrated in Java, Bali and Sumatra. The
\ncrucial question that should be raised in this connection is
\nwhether those Indonesians hovering just above the poverty line
\nare politically apathetic. Or, whether, precisely because of
\ntheir dire situation, they are politically alert.<\/p>\n
We would like to submit that the penetration of electronic
\nmedia even into the remotest villages throughout this vast
\narchipelago is not only to the advantage of the powerholders as a
\nresult of the recognition factor. The widespread penetration of
\nelectronic media, which by now also reach the poor even if they
\ncontinue to lack access to some basic services, makes them more
\naware than ever before of their political rights.<\/p>\n
In other words, they have an increasing keenness to use their
\nelectoral rights in order to bring about political change. The
\nfact is that what has been happening over the past several years
\nis that there has been a widening of the gap that exists between
\nthose who are becoming increasingly rich, and those who are
\nsliding towards poverty.<\/p>\n
That is why we believe that the year 2004 could well bring
\nabout political changes that the current political elite,
\nafflicted as they are by a serious bout of cynicism, fails to
\ncomprehend.<\/p>\n
Since Indonesia, amid staggeringly high unemployment, will for
\nthe first time hold a direct presidential election, which by
\ndefinition will be an emotional exercise, we sincerely hope that
\nthe 2004 elections will proceed peacefully. The year 2004 is
\nindeed a challenging one for this country in its efforts to
\nestablish a stable and mature democracy. Every Indonesian,
\nincluding those working for the media, is therefore called on to
\nperform his or her duty in helping to ensure that the upcoming
\ngeneral and presidential elections proceed in a peaceful
\natmosphere.<\/p>",
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"sponsor": "Okusi Associates",
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