Update looks at unusual scenarios<\/p>\n
By Dewi Anggraeni<\/p>\n
MELBOURNE (JP): Pessimism and optimism aside, Indonesia's
\neconomy is on the mend. The Indonesia Update conference at the
\nAustralian National University in Canberra, Australia, earlier
\nthis month, looked at the country in the 20th century and in the
\nfuture.<\/p>\n
While the 20th century seen from the angle of political
\nhistory uncovered more gloom than sunshine, according to some
\neconomists at least, things are looking up. In other words,
\neconomically we have hit rock bottom, and the only way is up.<\/p>\n
Statistical data shows that consumers spending figures are
\npromising and so are realized domestic investments. Kelly Bird,
\nan economist working for the National Development Planning Board
\n(Bappenas), indicated that after contracting by 13 percent in
\n1998, then plateauing for most of 1999, the economy began to
\nrecord growth from the fourth quarter of 1999. If the current
\neconomic growth trend is maintained, Bird said, the economy could
\nexpand by 5 percent, a rate similar to that projected for
\nThailand.<\/p>\n
National income accounts and other real sector indicators
\npointed to economic activity picking up in the first semester of
\n2000. Bird is optimistic that the economy will grow faster than
\nreflected in the official estimates.<\/p>\n
There is a big question mark behind the banking sector,
\nhowever. The slow progress in corporate debt restructuring and
\nasset sales under the Indonesian Bank Restructuring Agency (IBRA)
\nhas caused a sluggish growth in investment. Other contributing
\nfactors mentioned are the lack of legal and judicial reforms
\nprotecting the rights and obligations of creditors and investors,
\nand the seemingly unending political instability.<\/p>\n
Many have also argued that the specter of national
\ndisintegration has not been exorcised.<\/p>\n
Usually, when the issue of national disintegration rears its
\nhead, political analysts and observers will quietly shake their
\nheads, intoning various mantras to dispel the descending gloom,
\nmumbling how bad it will be for the government in Jakarta.<\/p>\n
Java, it is believed, will wither and eventually be paralyzed
\nfinancially without the other islands. This indeed happened to a
\ndegree at this conference, and would have left the participants
\nwith a feeling of pity on Jakarta, but for one historian's views.<\/p>\n
What the historian, Robert Cribb of Queensland University,
\npresented to the participants was not exactly brightly
\noptimistic.<\/p>\n
Exploring decentralization with its accompanying promises and
\npitfalls, Cribb pointed to the likelihood of Indonesians looking
\nfor alternatives if it indeed failed.<\/p>\n
Giving examples of fallen \"empires\" such as the Ottoman empire
\nand the Soviet empire, Cribb theorized that the common reason was
\nthe supposedly dominant ethnic group grew tired of the burden of
\nthe empire and decided to seek its independence.<\/p>\n
Then he drew a parallel to Java.<\/p>\n
Cribb argued that the conventional wisdom that densely
\npopulated Java needed the other islands for its survival was the
\nthinking of the 19th century. We now live in an era of
\nglobalization, where access to resources does not correlate with
\npolitical control.<\/p>\n
In the last three decades, Java has gone through extensive
\ntransformation. The rate of population increase fell
\ndramatically, and it enjoys the concentration of
\nindustrialization and foreign investment.<\/p>\n
As for necessary natural resources, an independent Java would
\nbe able to access them from other places without having to have
\npolitical control over these countries.<\/p>\n
Similar views were once aired by Ken Thomas, a retired
\nacademic of LaTrobe University in Melbourne, in a discussion
\ngroup held regularly by the Indonesia Program at the University
\nof Melbourne. Thomas pointed out that economically Java was
\nstronger than other islands, because it was much less dependent
\non the exportation of natural resource commodities.<\/p>\n
Java was exporting manufactured and value-added items which
\nhad attracted large domestic and foreign investments, Thomas
\nsaid.<\/p>\n
Cribb also reminded the conference participants that Java had
\na large and relatively well-educated population and sound
\ninfrastructure.<\/p>\n
All this only points to one thing: in a worst-case scenario,
\nJava is ready to take off, waving goodbye to even the resource-
\nrich islands, which would sooner or later come, cap in hands,
\noffering trade with Java. As Cribb said, independent Java could
\nbe another Thailand or another Taiwan.<\/p>\n
What is even more thought-provoking, tempting as well, Cribb
\neven suggested that Java could even begin to free itself of a
\nmilitary which had learned the habits of brutality, corruption
\nand resistance to civil authority, by exporting them out. Surely
\nthat was just a throwaway line to keep the participants awake?<\/p>\n
This year's Indonesia Update certainly had a curious blend of
\noptimism and pessimism.<\/p>\n
The writer is a journalist based in Melbourne.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/update-looks-at-unusual-scenarios-1447893297", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }