A number of economic data points are set to be released next week by\nboth the Central Agency on Statistics (BPS) and Bank Indonesia (BI).\nThese figures are expected to show signs of weakness, potentially\npressuring the rupiah exchange rate towards the level of Rp 18,250 per\nUS dollar.<\/p>\n
\u201cNext week, the market will be watching various upcoming releases,\nparticularly the trade balance, which is likely to show a deficit for\nJune. This will impact the rupiah moving forward,\u201d stated currency and\ncommodities analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi in a statement to journalists on\nSunday (2\/8\/2026).<\/p>\n
Furthermore, Ibrahim predicts that July 2026 inflation will moderate,\nas the prices of basic necessities have relatively declined amidst\nmarket interventions. He estimates that July 2026 inflation will remain\nbelow 3.34 per cent year-on-year (yoy).<\/p>\n
Another critical economic indicator is Indonesia\u2019s foreign exchange\nreserve position. Ibrahim predicts that foreign exchange reserves in\nJuly 2026 will decrease from the June 2026 position of 145.6 billion US\ndollars. These reserves are expected to be sufficient to finance import\nrequirements for only 4.9 months.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis means it does not meet the international standard where a\ncountry with a BBB debt rating should maintain foreign exchange reserves\nfor at least five months,\u201d he noted.<\/p>\n
BPS is scheduled to release Indonesia\u2019s trade balance and Consumer\nPrice Index (CPI), or inflation, on Monday (3\/8\/2026) at 11:00 WIB.\nMeanwhile, foreign exchange reserve data is typically released by Bank\nIndonesia on the 7th or 8th of every month.<\/p>\n
Additionally, the release of the Consumer Confidence Index (IKK) is\nalso expected to influence rupiah movements. Ibrahim predicts that the\nJuly 2026 IKK will decline further. According to his records, the IKK\ndropped from 129 in January 2026 to 117.8 in June 2026.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere is a high possibility that in July 2026, it will fall to\n116.6,\u201d he predicted.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, Indonesia\u2019s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers\u2019 Index (PMI)\nis also expected to remain in the contraction zone, below the 50 level,\nthough remaining above 46.9. According to Ibrahim, this condition\nindicates a decline in manufacturing sector activity, which impacts\nlabour absorption.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis indicates that the data to be released by BPS and BI next week\nwill influence the movement of the rupiah. The rupiah is likely to\nweaken, potentially approaching the level of Rp 18,250 to around Rp\n18,300,\u201d he stated.<\/p>\n
IKK data is usually released by BI between the 8th and 10th of each\nmonth, or during the second week. Meanwhile, BI PMI data is published\nquarterly. For the second quarter of 2026, the data is estimated to have\nbeen released around 17 July 2026.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/upcoming-economic-data-release-predicted-to-pressure-rupiah-towards-rp-18-250-1785664559", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }