UN tips 6.2% growth in Asia-Pacific<\/p>\n
Agence France-Presse, Bangkok<\/p>\n
Economies in 38 developing countries in the Asia Pacific
\nregion should grow by 6.2 percent next year, on level with this
\nyear's 6.3 percent, the UN's regional body said on Wednesday.<\/p>\n
Oil prices were expected to remain high and volatile in 2006
\nat around US$50 a barrel, while increasing imbalances between low
\nsavings in the United States and high savings in Asian countries
\nneeded to be addressed, it said.<\/p>\n
Members should also create an emergency health fund to help
\npoorer countries combat the deadly threat of bird flu, the UN's
\nEconomic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific's (ESCAP)
\nsaid in a report.<\/p>\n
\"Prospects for the ESCAP region for 2006 indicate that output
\ngrowth is likely to maintain its current resilience, while price
\npressures should abate despite continuing high energy and
\ncommodity prices,\" the report said.<\/p>\n
\"Within the ESCAP region, Southeast Asia, South and Southwest
\nAsia and the Pacific island countries should experience a slight
\nacceleration in their GDP growth rates in 2006.\"<\/p>\n
North and Central Asia, East and Northeast Asia and the
\ndeveloped countries are likely to experience a mild deceleration,
\nthe report added.<\/p>\n
Inflation within developing countries in the region was
\nestimated at 4.8 percent in 2005, and is expected to decline
\nslightly to 4.4 percent next year.<\/p>\n
In Southeast Asia, real GDP growth was forecast at 5.1 percent
\nthis year, rising to 5.4 percent next year, while inflation was
\ntipped to fall to 4.9 percent next year from 5.2 percent.<\/p>\n
Growth in East and Northeast Asia for 2005 was estimated at
\n6.6 percent, falling to 6.4 percent in 2006, while inflation was
\nforecast to stay flat, to 2.3 percent next year from 2.2 percent,
\nthe report said.<\/p>\n
UNESCAP calculations predict for every $10 a barrel increase
\nin oil prices lasting six months, GDP growth in the region
\ndeclines 0.5 percent, while inflation increases 0.5 percent,
\nexecutive director Kim Hak-Su told reporters.<\/p>\n
\"Oil importing economies certainly would be most affected, and
\npolicy responses are needed, among others maybe phasing out oil
\nsubsidies ... and more incentives for energy efficiency and
\nconservation,\" he said.<\/p>\n
The report urged Asian economies to use the region's strong
\nrate of savings to finance projects such as building much-needed
\nphysical infrastructure.<\/p>\n
It also recommended a new fund to offset the effects of bird
\nflu, which has cost the Asian poultry industry losses of about
\n$10 billion since the H5N1 virus was found in late 2003,
\naffecting mostly small farmers with no alternative income.<\/p>\n
An emergency health fund would mean richer countries could
\npool their money to assist poorer countries such as Cambodia and
\nLaos to battle the disease, Kim added.<\/p>\n
Asked what economic matters would be priorities for 2006, Kim
\nsaid oil prices, followed by the threat of avian influenza.<\/p>\n
\"Avian flu it's uncertain but (if) it will happen, it will
\nkill our tourism,\" he said.<\/p>",
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