The position of the British Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, is\nunder considerable pressure. Less than two years after the Labour\nParty\u2019s landslide victory in the general election, Starmer\u2019s leadership\nis now being challenged from within his own party.<\/p>\n
Starmer\u2019s popularity has declined sharply following various shifts in\npolitical stance that have disappointed the British public. A\nsignificant defeat for Labour in local elections on May 7, 2026, has\nfurther intensified the pressure on him.<\/p>\n
According to The Economist, nearly 100 of the 403 Labour MPs are\nreportedly calling for Starmer to resign. The pressure has increased\nafter five ministers submitted letters of resignation, including Wes\nStreeting, the former UK Health Secretary.<\/p>\n
Starmer has so far stated that he will remain in office. However, the\npossibility of a leadership contest within the Labour Party is now\nincreasing. Under party rules, a new leader can be elected if 20% of\nLabour MPs formally express support for another candidate.<\/p>\n
Several names have emerged as potential replacements for Starmer.\nThese include Wes Streeting, Angela Rayner, Ed Miliband, and Andy\nBurnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester.<\/p>\n
According to the latest Betfair Exchange data cited by The Economist,\nAndy Burnham is now seen as the strongest candidate.<\/p>\n
The odds of Burnham becoming prime minister have risen sharply to\n54%. This is significantly higher than Angela Rayner at 16%, Ed Miliband\nat 8%, Wes Streeting at 7%, and the odds of Starmer remaining in office\nuntil the next election at 6%.<\/p>\n
Burnham\u2019s Path to Downing Street Will Not Be Easy<\/p>\n
Despite being the favorite in prediction markets, Burnham\u2019s path to\n10 Downing Street is still long. He must first win a by-election to\nreturn to the House of Commons or the British Parliament.<\/p>\n
After that, Burnham also needs to gather support from 81 Labour MPs\nto be able to compete in the party leadership contest.<\/p>\n
Therefore, the timing of Starmer\u2019s departure is still uncertain.\nAccording to Betfair\u2019s prediction market, the highest probability of\nStarmer leaving his position is at the end of September 2026, which is\n52.6%.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, the probability of Starmer resigning at the end of June is\nonly 2.5%. There is also a 22.7% chance that he will remain in office\nuntil the end of December 2026, and a 22.2% chance that he will stay on\nuntil 2027 or later.<\/p>\n
Makerfield Will Be an Important Test<\/p>\n
Burnham\u2019s fate will largely depend on the by-election in Makerfield,\nGreater Manchester. On May 14, 2026, Josh Simons, the Labour MP for\nMakerfield, resigned to make way for Burnham.<\/p>\n
The Labour Party then allowed Burnham to run as a candidate in the\narea on May 15, 2026.<\/p>\n
Historically, Makerfield has been a strong base for Labour. Since the\nconstituency was formed in 1983, Labour has always won and never\nreceived less than 40% of the vote in national elections.<\/p>\n
However, this time the challenge is not easy. Reform UK managed to\ngain about 50% of the vote in the Makerfield local council election on\nMay 7. This makes Labour\u2019s position not entirely secure.<\/p>\n
The Betfair prediction market estimates the probability of Labour\nwinning in Makerfield at 55%, while Reform UK is at 43%. The odds for\nLabour could still change if Burnham\u2019s candidacy is officially\napproved.<\/p>\n
Labour Members Prefer Burnham<\/p>\n
If Burnham manages to enter parliament, his chances in the internal\nLabour contest will be quite high. The party\u2019s membership base of around\n250,000 people tends to lean left and many come from the public\nsector.<\/p>\n
In a Survation poll of Labour members on May 13-14, 2026, Burnham was\nfar ahead in a direct comparison with Starmer.<\/p>\n
A total of 61% of Labour members said they would vote for Burnham,\nwhile Starmer received only 28%.<\/p>\n
Other candidates could also defeat Starmer, but the difference is\nsmaller. Ed Miliband received 46% against Starmer\u2019s 39%, while Angela\nRayner received 45% against Starmer\u2019s 41%.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, Wes Streeting trailed far behind. He only received 23%,\nwhile Starmer led with 53%.<\/p>\n
Burnham is the Most Liked, But It May Not Be Enough<\/p>\n
In terms of public popularity, Burnham is also one of the Labour\nfigures with the most positive image. A YouGov poll on May 12-13, 2026,\nshowed that Burnham has a higher approval rating than several other\nLabour figures.<\/p>\n
However, the challenges remain significant. Burnham has been away\nfrom Westminster for almost a decade to lead Greater Manchester. This\nmeans that for some national voters, he may not be a widely known\nfigure.<\/p>\n
On the other hand, Labour is currently still behind in various polls.\nA change of leader may not immediately improve the party\u2019s chances in\nthe next election.<\/p>\n
The key lies in the ability of the new Labour leader to offer a\nclearer political direction and regain voters who have left the party in\nthe last two years.<\/p>\n
With the current conditions, Andy Burnham is indeed the strongest\ncandidate to replace Keir Starmer.<\/p>\n
However, before he can truly aim for the position of prime minister,\nBurnham must pass two major tests: winning in Makerfield and securing\nstrong support from Labour MPs.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/uk-prime-ministers-position-in-jeopardy-who-is-the-frontrunner-to-replace-him-1780652661", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }